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The Bishop, The EDT, The Great Exhibition, the Actress or another?
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messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 19 November, 2016 13:45

DaveR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "Ensure a Platonic hierarchy of everyone in their
> proper place"
>
> That's not what Platonic hierarchy means

> "Believe in autochthonous powers."
>
> And this doesn't really make sense, or at least it
> doesn't mean what you evidently think it does.

The reference to hierarchy is The Republic. The hierarchy of position Plato argues for there is quite insidious I think (the idea that we are born to express already acquired essence and should accept our pre-ordained place once this has been determined). If that is not accurately described as a Platonic hierarchy in the context of my sentence I do not know why and - as ever - you have not said why, just that it means something else (you do not say what).

Why I wonder did the word 'autochthonous' occur to me whilst I was writing that post? Did I look up a word to irritate you (or to try to impress others)? No. Did it occur to me spontaneously in the act of writing? Yes. I was writing about the sense that we are fine to go it alone on the basis of some atavistic myth that the UK population is not a collection of mongrel genes assembled contingently and through migration (how else?) so that we can 'get our country back' and its powers. It seems perfectly reasonable to me to use the word autochthonous here: looking on Google, people use this word in comparable ways: e.g. "autochthonous thought". The dictionary says: "indigenous rather than descended from migrants or colonists" (Google) and that was exactly the sense it had in my sentence, even if the phrase "autochthonous powers" fails your category of 'conventional meaning' (not sure how this is derived).

I guess it will be atavistic next ... I do wonder if, when you say my posts "do not have any coherent meaning if the words are understood in the conventional way" and the repeated use of the criticism "literally makes no sense" imply that you have a slightly rigid view of the process of signification. No word has a fixed meaning, all words are saturated with AND DESTABILISED BY the metonymic and metaphoric associations in the local contexts of their use. To suggest otherwise is simply to try to bureaucratise language to some sense on which we always-already agreed.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Loz 19 November, 2016 14:52

Lordship 516 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> @DaveR
>
> "mainstream economists have largely now accepted
> that they were wrong about the immediate effects
> of Brexit,"
>
> Not so - acceptance that there are lagging factors, including some business decisions on the
> part of suppliers not to pass on increasing costs for various reasons. Also, the bouyant spending
> has been accompanied with a significant reduction in trading margins - traders sacrificing profit
> for survival in the short term.

Agreed. I work in retail now with an mostly imported set of products, some we source through importers/suppliers and some we source directly from overseas. We've managed to hold 99% of our prices to pre-Brexit levels, but we know that is going to change very soon - and big time.

Our importers/suppliers have mostly held their prices through a combination of stock holdings, forward contracts and currency hedging, but all of that will be exhausted soon. We're expecting importers to raise prices in the region of 10% and perhaps more, as everyone is expecting the pound to continue to drop (especially if May stays on course to trigger A50) and they may price to take that potential further drop into account. For goods we import directly we still have some stock that could take us into the new year, but then those prices will then move sharply up as well.

There is talk that VAT may drop in next week's statement by the Chancellor. Personally, I think he has to in order to try an mitigate the massive inflation blip we are facing over the coming months.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:11:19:15:25:28 by Loz.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 19 November, 2016 15:05

Very interesting and worrying post Loz. These lagged effects are so dangerous because the government has no good way of reacting to them in a timely way: as we have seen countless times in the past they end up often making things worse (Barber, Healey, Lawson, ...)

It seems to me that cutting VAT is an interesting idea. Presumably this would be reversible on the assumption that the pound has overshot downwards (as it is inclined to do). So when we reach the promised sunlit uplands of true Brexit and the pound rises again, and import prices fall, full rates of VAT could be restored. This would smooth out the inflation path. And smoothing it out is all-important given that inflation tends to be self-fulfilling via wage demands (particularly when you are restricting migrant labour and have printed so much money).

Trouble is that the OBR will point out the contribution this will make to what is already an unsustainable fiscal position. Gilt yields are already rising - I guess they have some way further to go. The BoE could find that it no longer sets interest rates (if it curtails printing cash and the gilt market gets the jitters). And we have huge household indebtedness - so the real economy is at enormous risk from the ensuing rise in interest rates.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:11:19:15:06:30 by jaywalker.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by malumbu 19 November, 2016 18:36

Just to add that my grammer, spelling, and attention to detail will also improve once we leave Europe.

malumbu Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for your postings uncleglen. As someone
> without a business/economics background always
> useful to hear the other side of the argument.
> I've been around more than half a century (from
> relatively humble stock) but don't recognise the
> Britain that you are talking about from my
> childhood. It was all pretty grim and black and
> white from memory. Well you've clearly got some
> strong views and I am sure that you will be
> reminding us of it.
>
> But perhaps going back to my childhood there were
> lots of positives. We wore short trousers
> irrespective of the weather. We were slapped with
> a ruler by the teacher for being the slightest bit
> naughty. We were intolerent of other
> nationalities, sexual preferences and other
> beliefs. We were encouraged to throw stones at
> the 'queer' (odd) kids at school just because
> nobody knew about (or appreciated) childhood
> mental health issues and behavioural issues. It
> was your civil duty to shout 'mong' at anyone who
> looked slightly weird. Men knew their place in
> society, and women even more so. Most of us
> smoked (even as children) and all benefited from
> the more sociable office, pub and eateries
> environments. And we had iced buns for treats,
> and were allowed to spend our bus money on sweets
> if we walked home. None of this nonsense about
> health, diet and nutrition. And I still have a few
> teeth left, some of the front ones don't even have
> fillings. We had that excellent currency where
> you had to divide things by 12 or times by 20.
> Not all this silliness about multiples of ten.
> Thank God Napolian didn't win.
>
> And we all bought Austin (ie British Leyland) cars
> as they were made very well locally. It is
> clearly a clearly a quasi socialist dirty
> foreigner plot to pretend otherwise. Those bally
> useless VW golfs. What rubbish.
>
> Ah takes me back.
>
> But there was an unsavoury side to all of this.
> As kids of 9 or 10, we walked home from school
> past a chap of around 40, building his own house.
> He invited us, to ...... show us his bulding work.
> We'd pop in most days to see how he was getting
> on. My parents came past one day and thanked him
> for being so friendly. He didn't even get his
> John Thomas out once. So not everything about
> pre-1973 Britain was great.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 21 November, 2016 16:19

The effects of a VAT reduction have been studied & tracked over time.

The reduction in VAT from 20% to 17% is likely to result in consumption increasing by less than 1 per cent by the fourth
quarter following reduction. GDP is likely to be raised raised by less than half a per cent relative to what would have happened without the VAT reduction. After the temporary reduction is over both consumption and GDP are depressed as a result of the policy. This would be a political gimmick and not likely to help in any meaningful manner.

There are also Arbitrage effects & Substitution effects that disadvantage the consumer and the result of a cut in
taxes now will have to be financed by an increase in taxes in the future.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:11:21:16:44:30 by Lordship 516.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 21 November, 2016 17:12

I agree it would be a bit of a gimmick, although the effect is presumably more on aggregate supply (if the policy is time consistent it cannot have a significant effect on AD as you say)- the idea in the original post was to smooth the inflation path.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 21 November, 2016 17:51

jaywalker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree it would be a bit of a gimmick, although
> the effect is presumably more on aggregate supply
> (if the policy is time consistent it cannot have a
> significant effect on AD as you say)- the idea in
> the original post was to smooth the inflation
> path.

The possible reduction is not likely to be sufficient to offset the effects of currency induced price inflation which is heading in the direction of 10 to 15% depending on sector so a VAT reduction will mainly result in a theoretical increase in disposable income. The other issues is that not all suppliers will pass the reduction to their buyers - as has happened in the past. The BoE reckoned that only 50% of suppliers passed the reduction to their buyers.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 21 November, 2016 19:29

a vat cut to zero would offset that :-). but the increase in disposable income is not of any relevance to the post - it would be pre-announced that it would be taken away again later (so only a marginal discounting effect on the perceived time horizon). As to the suppliers, they are not passing all the price increases caused by the sterling fall (even the MNUs, as we have seen) so there is a symmetry with the price falls in the event of a vat cut.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was 2016:11:21:19:31:26 by jaywalker.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 21 November, 2016 20:25

Looking at it in context - VAT takes in roughly £110billion, the NHS costs roughly 120billion and the NHS needs funding urgently. To indulge themselves in a gesture of VAT reduction of 2-3% would be really a gimmick whilst at the same time denying the NHS the badly needed funding. This is regardless of the theoretical effects of a VAT reduction. It failed in the past & didn't even out over the two periods - temporary reduction period & period following return to normal VAT rate.

There is also an anticipatory effect. For every 1% reduction consumption falls about 0.33% in the quarter immediately before the introduction of the reduction & increases by about 0.33% in the first quarter of the reduced VAT, & increases about 0.15% duing all the other quarters of the reduction. However it then falls considerably on the re-introduction of the higher VaT rate - about -0.5% in the first quarter & levels off at about -0.25% thereafter. This happened, not only in the Uk but also in France, Germany & Spain. You would expect an evening out effect but in fact there was an overall negative effect on consumption. This is why I say it would be a gimmick - unless, of course they drop all VAT to 0% as @jaywalker suggests big grin [& close down the NHS sad smiley(
]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:11:21:20:30:31 by Lordship 516.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 21 November, 2016 20:48

I am not at all sure why £120bn or so (or even x5 that) is of any interest in the current situation. We are rushing fast towards the cliff edge (oh dear, did May really say that?) and so borrowing an additional one tenth of our annual income to put the breaks on would seem to be quite a modest proposal (especially at negative real interest rates).

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 21 November, 2016 21:49

jaywalker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am not at all sure why £120bn or so (or even x5
> that) is of any interest in the current situation.
> We are rushing fast towards the cliff edge (oh
> dear, did May really say that?) and so borrowing
> an additional one tenth of our annual income to
> put the breaks on would seem to be quite a modest
> proposal (especially at negative real interest
> rates).

I would agree with you with the reservation that any borrowing must be utilized for productive capital projects & the current budget separated out from the capital budget. In the current state of the economy this would enable a better management process of the fiscal budget even in the long term. At the moment this does not happen and it is like co-mingling client funds and leads to confusion and much of the time disables discrete analysis.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by ££££ 05 December, 2016 13:35

Still waiting......

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by rendelharris 05 December, 2016 13:48

Still not activated Clause 50....

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by numbers 06 December, 2016 12:43

Losing your touch there quidsy.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Rook 15 December, 2016 15:00

Hi All

Loads going on (some of it good!)but heres an update on France which I think could present outcomes that will be pivotal to either the survival of the EU project or the herald a brave new dawn

Following Donald Trump’s surprise election, the market’s focus has def shifted back to Europe, given its crowded political agenda.

France finds itself in the spotlight based on the fact that both executive and legislative powers are up for grabs between mid-April and mid-June 2017, and that the political landscape is significantly fragmented with the more extreme parties attracting material levels of support.

Overlay on this the fact that France is the second-largest euro area economy, and jointly with Germany has significant decision-making power over the future of the euro area/Europe, and it is clear to see how material the outcome of the French elections will be to the wider political and economic outlook.

Although the election of Mr Fillon (status quo) as The Republicans’ candidate for the first round of the Presidential election has significantly reduced uncertainty, the potential outcomes of the election nonetheless remain numerous given :

1) the socialist primary candidates are not yet fully known (Prime Minister Valls has resigned and declared his intention to run, after President Hollande announced he would not run);
2) significant divergences have emerged from within mainstream parties; and
3) similar to other European countries, there is a growing fragmentation/polarisation of the French political landscape, including strong support expressed for the parties at the extremes

Currently, all polls that have come out since the election of Mr Fillon however have predicted that he would qualify for the second round and win against Le Pen in the run off by a significant (c.35-40pp) margin .

In this instance, a referendum on EU/euro membership is unlikely to be called as long as a pro-European President and Government/Parliament are in place. Furthermore, it is worth highlighting that polls (eurobarometer) have consistently pointed toward a majority of the population being in favour of remaining in the EU/euro area, although according to the latest YouGov survey (29 November 2016) shows the margin has narrowed

So what is the risk?

Most recent polls show Marine Le Pen looks likely to reach the second round regardless of the different permutations of other candidates, and it cannot be ignored that she scored very strongly..so there is always a risk of a surprise vs the poll predictions (sound familiar?)!

Although it is yet to be fully specified in the 2017 election party manifesto, it is widely assumed that Front national (Marine Le Pen) is running on a platform that looks to remove France from both the European Union and the euro area. Her rival party Front de Gauche ( Jean-Luc Mélenchon), on the other hand, is closer to promoting an institutional change than an outright exit- although even that will fill the EU hierarchy with dread.

In this ‘unlikely’ scenario, however it means that Marine le Pen’s party would have to achieve an extremely strong result at the general elections (it currently holds two seats). A survey in June 2016 by the OpinionWay institute has found that the Front National could win up to 60 seats, which would fall well short of the required 120 seat threshold. There is a possible risk scenario however that Front National and Front De Gauche parties will then decide to form a coalition as they are not too dissimilar, at least as far as the economy is concerned.

This does mean that markets are cogniscant that the likelihood of a referendum – via a popular initiative – on an EU/euro membership has increased

The stances of Mélenchon or Le Pen could also pose risks to the future of Europe, in that France would diverge further from Germany both in terms of domestic policies (fiscal policy, role of the government, wage increases) and its agenda for Europe.
The current relationship is seen as strained and the last thing the EU needs is for the ‘two pillars’ of the Union to dislocate further from an agreed policy outlook. Even though currently markets do not expect French citizens (as per recent polls) to ultimately vote to withdraw from the EU or the EA, a strong showing by Le Pen or Melenchon would undoubtedly further increase disintegration risk of the EU project.

In summary, Polls say le Pen wont win and not by a significant margin, but if she does (outright or by coalition), then expect a term like Frexit (or something more creative) to enter mainstream discussions

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by malumbu 18 December, 2016 16:13

WTF is Patrick Collinson on about in Grauniad money saying all is OK

[www.theguardian.com]

No doubt he lives around here as all Guardian journos do so must post on the site

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by ££££ 19 December, 2016 09:16

Er, I think he's just reporting on various funds performance this year which is actually a matter of fact rather than anything else - really not sure why you are getting your knickers in a twist on this particular article malumbu????

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by malumbu 19 December, 2016 18:40

Perhaps I being mean - it came across as "I voted out and in the subsequent mess there are winners as well as losers."

A contact I had worked in reinsurance and made a mint out of the 08 recession. I'd hate to benefit from the misfortune of others.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by ££££ 23 December, 2016 13:41

3rd quarter GDP (post referendum) upgraded to 0.6*

*"BUT WE'VE NOT LEFT YET"

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 23 December, 2016 22:53

££££ Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 3rd quarter GDP (post referendum) upgraded to
> 0.6*
>
> *"BUT WE'VE NOT LEFT YET"

Yup . however GDP is a grossly lagging indicator. First estimates of GDP can be misleading and they often miss radical changes in GDP. Initial estimates often involve a degree of guessing and so miss out real changes.

First month estimates for economic growth in Q2 2008 was 0.2%. Yet three years later, this positive growth was downgraded to -0.6% using actual data – a serious downturn.

The first month estimate for Q3 2008 was -0.5%. But, three years later, this was revised to a much more serious -1.7%

....so lets see what the actual reality of GDP is for Q3 2016...... How about -0.5% to -0.7%..? [my number currently being used]

Look at the trend...not the actual number......the trend slopes are down for the foreseeable future & scary.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by Lordship 516 24 December, 2016 14:46

Lordship 516 Wrote: July 19th 2016
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rook Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Agreed £££
> >
> > Interestingly GBP got a jolt higher today [£:$1.33]as
> MPC
> > member Weale has just made some pretty positive
> > comments about future policy (or should I say
> far
> > less negative). This is in direct contradiction
> to
> > comments by MPC member Andy Haldane late last
> week
> > which pushed GBP lower and got very widely
> > reported on / jumped on

LORDSHIP WROTE:
> It's interesting that you pointed to the 'jolt'
> that the £ received yesterday - so what would you
> attribute today's drop of 1.3% to ?
>
> Also, what do you think about the prospects of the
> £ devaluing to sub $1.25 & when ?

23 December 2016 ----- £:$1.229; Euro:$1.045 - My clients have been happy to follow my advice
My projection was for £:$1.20 to $1.22; Euro:$1.05 to $1.07;

Seems the odd projections can be useful sometimes

PROJECTION FOR 2017

Q1 £:$1.18; Euro:$1.02.
Q2 £:$1.15; Euro:$1.00
Q4 £:$1.10; Euro:$0.98



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was 2016:12:24:15:14:44 by Lordship 516.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by jaywalker 24 December, 2016 20:26

This is a very savvy post, Lordship. I think about a mean estimate. Fat tails on the distribution suggest to me 0.90 for pound/euro Q3 (Dornbusch overshooting hypothesis). For cable, much more difficult because Trump himself an outlier.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:12:24:20:28:32 by jaywalker.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by Lordship 516 26 December, 2016 14:40

jaywalker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is a very savvy post, Lordship. I think
> about a mean estimate. Fat tails on the
> distribution suggest to me 0.90 for pound/euro Q3
> (Dornbusch overshooting hypothesis). For cable,
> much more difficult because Trump himself an
> outlier.

Running scenarios on that at the moment, trying to establish suitable criteria to hedge against tail risk.
Trump as a outlier is not such a huge problem as his policies have been trialed before under Reagan, they won't be so different this time around - there are boundaries of reality & opposing influences that will reduce the Trump effect. The Reagan period had an advantage insofar as the administration had the leading advantage - this time around there will be many significant influences that will seek to mitigate the Trump effects. There will be a 'reality' check in Q3 [which is why I don't have numbers for that period] as it becomes more clear what Trump's policies are in reality & what he is likely to be able to deliver - this will clear from Q4/17 or Q1/18. Taking jobs back to the USA will be a longish campaign as a factory takes about 2 years to tool up - this effect will first have to get industry on board & then go through a delicate process of maintaining existing supply whilst gearing up so it won't make much impact until about 3 to 4 years, if any. Spending on national infrastructure such as he is boasting about is a little more difficult than building one of his speculative Trump Towers. For the UK internally there will be erratic periods that cannot be quantified - 1]after the Supreme Court decision - not a great impact, as it will only signal undefined possibilities 2] after Brexit is notified formally - this will have a greater impact and will usher in a prolonged period of uncertainty that will last for a yet to be determined period of years.

The £ falling is not a bad thing - the UK needs to attract investment from a wider group of investors & needs to make itself attractive to investors. The current account deficit & the budget deficit need funding & therefore need to offer better returns that other destinations for funds.

A cheaper currency is preferable to a deep seated recession or a sharp financial squeeze on consumers & business.

Once there is cogent definition on the future relationship with the EU then the UK can begin to move ahead & forge their relationships worldwide & develop the new UK economy - this is likely to take more time than May & co are hoping.

We will likely go into the next election without everything being settled and a lot of political squabbling not only between the parties but also within the parties, particularly the Conservatives. An early election might suit May a lot better than a full term but I doubt the opposition will facilitate that.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2016:12:26:15:13:50 by Lordship 516.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by jaywalker 26 December, 2016 19:19

Yes, your point that "there are boundaries of reality & opposing influences that will reduce the Trump effect" must be the expected outcome. However, there are some factors that increase the variance: Trump's addiction to social media, direct popular appeal, and, more significantly for me, his personality - a kind of polar opposite to the very lovable Reagan (not my taste but nonetheless). For some reason I keep thinking of Seneca's murder by officers of state sent by Nero: the kind of thing you order when your fantasies cannot be realised and you realise your grip on power is unravelling. Reagan was a fundamentally decent if naïve man...

Fat tails: # it might be that the Supreme Court just allows brexit on May's timetable. But there is also a possibility that they will - in practical terms - block it entirely. # Russia. # French elections (these still look deeply troubling) # pensions crisis (really this is a crisis!) # stagflation. And of course unknown unknowns.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by rendelharris 26 December, 2016 19:23

On a very nitpicking point, Seneca in fact killed himself on the orders of Nero's emissaries - but the Nero/Trump parallel is most apt.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by jaywalker 26 December, 2016 19:30

yes it was quite a test of his philosophy: I seem to remember he tried several methods before succumbing - still murder though, just allowed to choose his own self-directed method of dispatch.

messageRe: THE ECONOMY - update
Posted by jaywalker 26 December, 2016 19:31

of course probably not legally murder: the soldiers were the drones of their day representing absolute rule.

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by Lordship 516 26 December, 2016 20:25

Using Dornbusch in the current circumstances is limiting as it cannot compute uncertainties - the tools for dealing with uncertainty didn't exist in his time. I am building some Agent Based Models [ABMs]for various scenarios & hopefully will develop enough models to progress towards integrated Multi Agent Systems [MAS] that will enable dynamic modelling in the current environment. Data & defining parameters from H1 will help refine these models for practical use and inform and make parallel DSGE models more usable & relevant.

The big elephant in the room especially for the UK is stagflation but many of my colleagues don't wish to consider this too loudly - however, all the markers are present & it will take a lot to prevent it happening. I feel another interest rate drop will happen in the New Year. There isn't much left in the armoury & bluff & bluster just won't cut it.

Seneca committed suicide on Nero's order because he was involved in a plot to murder Nero & a possible sub-plot to install himself as Emperor. He also loaned forty million sesterces to the British. The recall of the loans prompted the British to revolt - what might today's British citizens revolt against?

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by rendelharris 26 December, 2016 21:00

Lordship 516 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Seneca committed suicide on Nero's order because
> he was involved in a plot to murder Nero & a
> possible sub-plot to install himself as Emperor.

Allegedly - it's been way too many years since my Ancient History A level but I seem to remember many historians cast doubt on his involvement in the plot. However, he deserved his fate anyway as a stinking hypocrite who preached Stoicism but grew fat on being a tutor, confidant of and apologist for some of the most wicked men and women in all recorded history. Those who fawn on Trump might do well to take him as a cautionary example!

messageRe: the economy - update
Posted by jaywalker 26 December, 2016 21:19

hmm,

I think i'd have preferred Seneca to Nero as my Emperor, at least on the basis of his public pronouncements (writings) (I accept the bar is not very high) and he was of course (disgracefully) willing to fawn to Nero in terms of speech-writing etc (one does wonder who the speech-writers are for some of our current masters). He may or may not have been involved in a plot (the book I read recently suggested he was desperately trying to retire given what Nero had become but Nero thought him safer inside his circle): but it is understandable if he was.

As for computing uncertainties, I'm not sure you can. But my technical knowledge in this area has a datestamp of c 1983 (Buiter). After that I turned to other things. I guess I would worry about the economist's notion of contingency: what we understand of the past shifts in ways I suspect AI cannot accommodate. But that is a deep question for sure.

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