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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat January 10, 07:58AM

That's interesting. Ighues the question is the extent to which this company (and others) make 'interim' measures to dea" with a period of high uncertainty, or they just take the low risk approach as a business, asn move all their data processing jobs to the EU.

As according to this

[www.gov.uk]

The issue is that the EU commission won't oficialy declare the UK as 'adequate' until they are a seperate country, as that is all that is required, as the EU allows for processing of data in many third party countries. But the decision will obviously take time (how long I suppose experts might have a view on)...and a business must decide whether it can make temporary measures for the interim or nif it's feasible to establish a EU hub and fill 6000 jobs before the EU declares the UK adequate...

Beter them than me. But def a concern; and a real issue, thanks for raising.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 10, 08:34AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> The author is also a former Australian opposition
> leader, and former Australian foreign secretary.
> He doesn't really have any 'skin' in this game, so
> i'd argue it's probably unfair to characterise him
> as a brextremist. Even if he is, let's argue
> against what's being said, not who's saying it....


I've been told by an Aussie there's a group of Australians involved with the Tufton Street mob (invested in no deal) and they only just saw them off down there.

Chloe Westley is Australian - moved to UK to take up the TPA role.

edit: you have to bring up who's sayng it as they've all gambled on a crash IMHO.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 10, 08:38am by JohnL.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 10, 10:40AM

Anyway

Three Cheers for the Speaker in his wife's car with the "b&llocks to Brexit" sticker smiling smiley

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by fishbiscuits January 10, 10:41AM

alex_b Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just one concrete example of the effect of no
> deal. I know a financial services firm who run all
> of their customer service and data processing for
> Europe from the UK. In the event of no deal their
> legal advice is that they will be unable to
> process any EU customer data in the UK due to
> GDPR. This will lead immediately to the redundancy
> of approximately 6000 staff. Many other firms are
> in a similar position and of course losing 6000
> jobs from a locality will have a huge knock on
> effect for other local businesses.

I think most firms - who are able to - have already made contingency arrangements for a no-deal brexit. The company I work for have opened offices in Amsterdam and Paris, just to ensure continuity of business in case we don't get a suitable deal. This pretty much ensures we'll make a loss for several years in a row, and will of course have to be offset by redundancies in London. But it's either that, or risk going out of business altogether.

I do really wonder what possible upsides there are to this whole exercise. Even the gammon-minded leavers aren't going to achieve their aim of keeping out foreigners, as the govt prepare to ramp up non-EU immigration to meet the shortfall...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 10, 10:46AM

fishbiscuits Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> alex_b Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Just one concrete example of the effect of no
> > deal. I know a financial services firm who run
> all
> > of their customer service and data processing
> for
> > Europe from the UK. In the event of no deal
> their
> > legal advice is that they will be unable to
> > process any EU customer data in the UK due to
> > GDPR. This will lead immediately to the
> redundancy
> > of approximately 6000 staff. Many other firms
> are
> > in a similar position and of course losing 6000
> > jobs from a locality will have a huge knock on
> > effect for other local businesses.
>
> I think most firms - who are able to - have
> already made contingency arrangements for a
> no-deal brexit. The company I work for have opened
> offices in Amsterdam and Paris, just to ensure
> continuity of business in case we don't get a
> suitable deal. This pretty much ensures we'll make
> a loss for several years in a row, and will of
> course have to be offset by redundancies in
> London. But it's either that, or risk going out of
> business altogether.
>
> I do really wonder what possible upsides there are
> to this whole exercise. Even the gammon-minded
> leavers aren't going to achieve their aim of
> keeping out foreigners, as the govt prepare to
> ramp up non-EU immigration to meet the
> shortfall...

Ours was all mixed up in a large downsizing anyway, but gainers seem to be Czech Republic and Malaysia.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by alex_b January 10, 01:25PM

fishbiscuits Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I think most firms - who are able to - have
> already made contingency arrangements for a
> no-deal brexit. The company I work for have opened
> offices in Amsterdam and Paris, just to ensure
> continuity of business in case we don't get a
> suitable deal. This pretty much ensures we'll make
> a loss for several years in a row, and will of
> course have to be offset by redundancies in
> London. But it's either that, or risk going out of
> business altogether.

You're of course right, many firms have set up new subsidiaries, expanded existing European operations and/or moved contracts from UK to European subsidiaries. This comes at the cost of lost jobs to the UK and also the loss of tax revenue from the companies and their employees.

To an extent this will happen irrespective of deal/no-deal as May has determined she doesn't want to be in the single market, making a lot of cross border services trade impossible or significantly more expensive than delivering the work from inside the EU. The bigger challenge with no-deal is that this pain will be immediate and deeper than the slow bleeding of jobs and revenue that will occur over the next two years as the final deal becomes clear.

Even if we now remain, many companies have spent enough relocating that a significant number of jobs will not return.

> I do really wonder what possible upsides there are
> to this whole exercise. Even the gammon-minded
> leavers aren't going to achieve their aim of
> keeping out foreigners, as the govt prepare to
> ramp up non-EU immigration to meet the
> shortfall...

I can't see any, any trade deals we strike with 3rd parties are unlikely to be faster or significantly more advantageous than the ones being struck as part of the EU. Even if they were 20% better this wouldn't offset the necessarily worse trading conditions with the continent. Unfortunately Brexit is a cultural/philosophical position and pragmatism doesn't appear to come in to it.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by fishbiscuits January 10, 04:23PM

alex_b Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even if we now remain, many companies have spent
> enough relocating that a significant number of
> jobs will not return.

This is exactly it. I actually asked our Brexit planner what would happen if Brexit didn't materialize, and his answer was basically... it doesn't make any difference now. We're past the point of no return. People have been hired/fired/moved, premises have been acquired and fitted out, licenses have been obtained.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat January 10, 05:55PM

fishbiscuits Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> alex_b Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Even if we now remain, many companies have
> spent
> > enough relocating that a significant number of
> > jobs will not return.
>
> This is exactly it. I actually asked our Brexit
> planner what would happen if Brexit didn't
> materialize, and his answer was basically... it
> doesn't make any difference now. We're past the
> point of no return. People have been
> hired/fired/moved, premises have been acquired and
> fitted out, licenses have been obtained.

So there's two ways to look at this statement. On the one hand it sounds very negative, but on the other if what you're saying is right, then the majority of the economic impact for those companies properly prepared has already been felt (ie. People have already been moved or fired) and the sompany isn't yet in civil war. That surely is incrementally positive for what might happen in the event of no deal? On the flip side of course is those businesses that haven't prepared....

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 10, 06:52PM

The only thing that I see as a glimmer of hope is my faith in the basic pragmatism/practicality of the U.K./EU govts.

No one wants to see the UK collapse into something out of ĎChildren Of Mení, and I suspect that - in the event of No Deal - people on all sides will go to great effort to keep the train on the tracks.

It wouldnít answer the basic question of whether No Deal is actually the best course, but then I donít think weíll ever get an answer to that, for reasons I outlined earlier.

Ultimately business will probably dictate how we move forward - money talks.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was january 10, 06:53pm by JoeLeg.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge January 10, 06:58PM

Brextremists still believing in unicorns shitting rainbows in the sunlit uplands, No Deal won't be as bad as people say it will, after all, we survived the war blah de blah. This country lost it's shit when KFC ran out of chicken for a few days...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge January 10, 07:06PM

JoeLeg Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> It wouldnít answer the basic question of whether
> No Deal is actually the best course...

I think we can safely say it isn't, even this duplicitous Gov doesn't think so...[www.bbc.co.uk] (just for you ian smiling smiley )

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 10, 09:17PM

Ok, pure Devilís Advocate time here, because TheCat has asked for this discussion, but I would say weíve never actually had a proper examination of the FACTS - such as they may be available - surrounding a Hard Brexit, mainly because the Leave campaign didnít really bring it up during the run-up to the vote. All the talk was of how we would get a great deal and how easy it would be, an I have to say for that I do hold Leave responsible.

There was - I suppose understandably - very little discussion of how hard it might be if things didnít go smoothly. It is possible that an objective analysis of the most statistically probable events in the case of No Deal might show short term pain but long term gain.

But then that would require an objective analysis, and those are in short supply these days.

(To be clear, my own view is that No Deal is quite simply massively unpredictable and that really worries me; thereís just know way do someone like me to do anything other than guess and hope, and to be honest I think that extends to all the experts out there. Weíre staring at the Rubicon, and no one has any idea whatís on the other side. Thereís some guessing, thereís some fervent, even zealous belief, and an awful lot of qualified, caveat-laden supposition, but not much more.)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 10, 09:20pm by JoeLeg.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by alex_b January 10, 09:32PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So there's two ways to look at this statement. On
> the one hand it sounds very negative, but on the
> other if what you're saying is right, then the
> majority of the economic impact for those
> companies properly prepared has already been felt
> (ie. People have already been moved or fired) and
> the sompany isn't yet in civil war. That surely is
> incrementally positive for what might happen in
> the event of no deal? On the flip side of course
> is those businesses that haven't prepared....

I think a lot of the impact is baked in but not yet felt. Moving contracts and headquarters is happening but wonít be seen in corporation tax receipts until next year. Similarly a lot of companies are looking to shift headcount by attrition over the next couple of years, replacing leavers/retirees with staff in the European locations. There will be redundancies too, but business will look to minimise costs as much as possible.

In the event of no deal this would need to be accelerated, if the transition deal is signed itíll be a slow bleed rather than a sudden impact.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu January 12, 09:47AM

Right, now I am really grumpy. Thanks for the informative debate, I am generally still in denial.

But Grayling really has got my goat. Vote yes to the deal or we will get a rise in right wing extremism.

Get real, it's happened already. Work to get some unity. Challenge it. Don't give into it (which let's face it you, BJ, Farage and the like have fanned in the first place).

It's like TfL giving into the demands of cabbies.... wait a minute have they

And the Austrians allowing everyone's democratic right to smoke in bars to appease the right wing nationalists.... what has that happened too? And the Mexican wall...

Anyway the Austrians and TfL is just a bit of Gallows humour. I don't find Grayling at all funny, hiding behind May like a good boy and then putting his head over the parapet on 'safe ground' so we know that he is not just about screwing up transport.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Carrie January 12, 01:53PM

[m.facebook.com]

This speech by David Lammy deserves a wider audience

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu January 12, 03:24PM

Do explain why please - not trolling but want to get your views on the subject.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 12, 03:45PM

Because to be fair - and I say this as someone who in some ways is not a fan of Lammy - heís right about an awful lot of stuff there.

Unfortunately I think itís too late, and personally I think a second referendum is even more of a gamble than the first, in many ways.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by rahrahrah January 15, 12:11PM

The government has spent almost 3 years focused on little other than Brexit. It's already cost us huge amounts of money and who knows the additional opportunity cost. We can't even agree the withdrawal terms. We haven't even started on our future relationship. That's when the real fun will start (assuming the withdrawal agreement get's the wave through). We're at a total impasse.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 15, 12:17PM

rahrahrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
That's when the real fun will
> start (assuming the withdrawal agreement get's the
> wave through).

Itís not going to get through. Not with a wave, a nudge or big old shove between the shoulder blades. And yes, that is indeed when the Ďfuní starts.

I would at least have a modicum of respect go those Leavers who now want No Deal if theyíd been open about the risks beforehand, but all we got from them were assurances that this would be smooth and easy. At least, so long as the EU did what they wanted. But of course the RU is going to make it hard for us. How they didnít spot that I donít know. But it suits them to blame the EU for everything, and theyíll keep doing it even after weíve left.

We're at a total impasse.

This is very true.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge January 15, 01:37PM

Although a staunch Remainer (hardened after May's red lines), I, and I suspect a lot of Remainers, would've initially accepted a Brexit that reflected the closeness of the vote, i.e. something akin to the Norway deal, whereby we keep the benefits of being in a CU, thus solving the Irish border problem, and also maintain FOM. But Brextremists like Johnson and Davis got greedy, egged on by a frothing right wing press, and pressured May into her Mansion House speech and those red lines. Add in triggering A50 without a plan, then losing her majority at the snap GE, we have ended up in the mess we have. All of their own doing. Meanwhile, the Brextremists have continued to move the Brexit goal posts so that they're now on a completely different pitch with talk of No Deal. This was never the form of Brexit that was proposed pre-referendum, so it's unacceptable to propose it now, and hopefully Parliament will ensure it never happens. However, it's the legal default if May's fudge deal is rejected as seems likely, so the only way out of this impasse is to revoke A50. There isn't enough time to do anything else. There's talk about extending A50 to July, but the EU have previously indicated that they would only do that for a genuine reason such as a GE or 2nd ref, not to carry on kicking the can down the road.
Until Brexit came along the world saw us as a sensible, pragmatic nation, we could do with some of that now...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 15, 02:34PM

No Deal isnít just the legal default; itís now the preferred option of most Leave voters, when compared to Mayís Deal. FOM is a red line for many, many Leave voters and they will happily swallow anything in order to stop it. May and Corbyn both know that to oppose them is suicide at a GE.

(The fact that non-EU immigration is rising seems to be ignored...)

To revoke A50 will be similar suicide, so they arenít going to do that either.

Iím starting to think itíll be a snap GE or No Deal.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 15, 02:37pm by JoeLeg.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by rahrahrah January 15, 03:18PM

diable rouge Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Although a staunch Remainer (hardened after May's
> red lines), I, and I suspect a lot of Remainers,
> would've initially accepted a Brexit that
> reflected the closeness of the vote, i.e.
> something akin to the Norway deal, whereby we keep
> the benefits of being in a CU, thus solving the
> Irish border problem, and also maintain FOM. But
> Brextremists like Johnson and Davis got greedy,
> egged on by a frothing right wing press, and
> pressured May into her Mansion House speech and
> those red lines. Add in triggering A50 without a
> plan, then losing her majority at the snap GE, we
> have ended up in the mess we have. All of their
> own doing. Meanwhile, the Brextremists have
> continued to move the Brexit goal posts so that
> they're now on a completely different pitch with
> talk of No Deal. This was never the form of Brexit
> that was proposed pre-referendum, so it's
> unacceptable to propose it now, and hopefully
> Parliament will ensure it never happens. However,
> it's the legal default if May's fudge deal is
> rejected as seems likely, so the only way out of
> this impasse is to revoke A50. There isn't enough
> time to do anything else. There's talk about
> extending A50 to July, but the EU have previously
> indicated that they would only do that for a
> genuine reason such as a GE or 2nd ref, not to
> carry on kicking the can down the road.
> Until Brexit came along the world saw us as a
> sensible, pragmatic nation, we could do with some
> of that now...

I completely agree.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge January 15, 03:25PM

JoeLeg Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Deal isnít just the legal default; itís now the
> preferred option of most Leave voters, when
> compared to Mayís Deal.

That's an important caveat, every option becomes the preferred option when up against May's deal. I suppose we should be grateful she's managed to unite the country on at least one thing.
The latest YouGov poll taken a few days ago with a 25,000 sample, shows Remain at 58% v No Deal at 42%.


> FOM is a red line for
> many, many Leave voters and they will happily
> swallow anything in order to stop it. May and
> Corbyn both know that to oppose them is suicide at
> a GE.

That's a common perception but I've seen a few post-ref surveys that don't back it up. I recall one that said FOM/immigration was 5th on the list of people's concerns, I think the economy was top.
This survey...[www.theguardian.com] ...reports that ''just 31% of leave voters want a sharp reduction in EU immigration'', that's 31% of 52%, just over 15%, not such a big number when you break it down. Incidentally, that's around the figure UKIP was polling in the 2015 GE.

> (The fact that non-EU immigration is rising seems
> to be ignored...)

Yep, it's definitely a strange one. To me immigration/FOM was a convenient stick with which to hit the EU, nothing more.


> To revoke A50 will be similar suicide, so they
> arenít going to do that either.

My point is they may have no other choice if they want to avoid the legal default of No Deal. Avoiding No Deal is the one option where there's actually a clear majority in the HoC.
Personally I think A50 will be extended because it's a continuation of the 'kicking the can down the road' strategy, but the EU will want a genuine reason to do that.

> Iím starting to think itíll be a snap GE or No Deal.

Only Corbyn wants an election. If he puts in a 'No Confidence' vote after May's deal sinks tonight, he will get beaten. His best chance of success would be if he offered Tory Remainers a 2nd ref as part of a GE deal, otherwise they will vote for the Tories to stay in power. DUP would never side with him for obvious reasons, plus they won't want give up all the control and power they currently have...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by fishbiscuits January 15, 03:39PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> fishbiscuits Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> > This is exactly it. I actually asked our Brexit
> > planner what would happen if Brexit didn't
> > materialize, and his answer was basically... it
> > doesn't make any difference now. We're past the
> > point of no return. People have been
> > hired/fired/moved, premises have been acquired and
> > fitted out, licenses have been obtained.
>
> So there's two ways to look at this statement. On
> the one hand it sounds very negative, but on the
> other if what you're saying is right, then the
> majority of the economic impact for those
> companies properly prepared has already been felt
> (ie. People have already been moved or fired) and
> the sompany isn't yet in civil war. That surely is
> incrementally positive for what might happen in
> the event of no deal? On the flip side of course
> is those businesses that haven't prepared....

It's hard to tell really. No matter how much planning you do, the impact on the wider economy is still an unknown.

And as you say.. not every business can afford the luxury of in-depth contingency planning, setting up new outposts in the EU, etc...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 15, 03:46PM

Let me say clearly - I have no idea where this is going to end up. Pragmatism and common sense have taken a back seat to Ďred linesí and dogmatic declarations of what Brexit should mean.

I think thereís a growing movement for No Deal, especially amoungst the public. People want to Leave, whatever the cost, and who knows, maybe weíll be ok? I certainly donít know.

However, this feels less like kicking a can down the road and more like weíve painted ourselves into a corner, There simply is no way to find a compromise that will satisfy everyone, or even one that everyone can live with. Someone is going to be really angry. I just have no idea who it will be.

Extending A50 is possible, and maybe Germany will renegotiate - that might be enough. What I think it will depend on is whether May resigns or not. She canít be forced out right now, but she might do a Cameron and walk. Unlikely though. But I canít see how she can come back with any better deal second time around?

Itís really all guesswork at this point. Iím feeling really pessimistic about it all, which is probably why I reckon itíll be No Deal. Donít listen to me, itíll probably be fine...!

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Blah Blah January 15, 10:50PM

She can of course call a 2nd ref arguing that the people should decide on the deal if parliament can't. And Labour are cornered into voting it through if there is no GE by their own membership and conference motion. I think that is where we are heading to be honest, along with an extension to A50 to facilitate it.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 16, 11:42AM

German MEP (Hans-Olaf Henkel) seems to be doing the rounds of Radio and TV saying that the UK should be offered a special status deal within the EU where we control migration (I thought we already did) and some other things.

Farage - more war comparisons

"Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage says Theresa May has shown a "total failure of leadership", and has acted like the leader of a "nation defeated in war".

"If she had any sense of honour, she'd be gone by lunchtime today," he adds."

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 16, 11:58AM

Yeah, says Farage who has never had to actually form policy, lead a party in actual power, or in any way be responsible for anything other than protesting against existing situations.

Easy to yell when you arenít the one having to make decisions. Heís never had to make any decision of consequence in his political life.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 16, 11:59AM

Cross Party Talks without Corbyn hmmm.

They may not like each other much but that isn't going to work (May seems to want to peel away Yvette Cooper and the heads of committees)

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jules-and-Boo January 16, 12:06PM

It would be ludicrous for her to forced out or call a 2nd Ref. A General Election would also not serve any purpose other than to create more instability. These would only delay the inevitable fact that a decision needs to be made and that is to exit the EU.

This will continue, there will be an extension to A50 and we will secure an exit closer to no deal.

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