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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by exdulwicher September 11, 07:45PM

Alan Medic Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> diable rouge Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Boris Johnson rules out election pact with
> Brexit
> > Party. Senior Tory source: ''Neither Nigel
> Farage
> > nor Arron Banks are fit and proper persons and
> > they should never be allowed anywhere near
> > government''
> >
> > That's quite the statement coming from the
> driver
> > of the Brexit clown car...
>
> And quite peculiar at this point in time. I wonder
> why?


The whole point of the "leaving the EU" referendum was to remove votes from Farage and UKIP and pull the right-wingers back to the Tory Party. Remain would win, the UKIP'ers would be shot down in flames, the Tories reinvigorated with all their former voters coming back from the UKIP / BNP / Farage wilderness and life could go on more or less as normal with the Tories quietly continuing to asset strip the country in the name of austerity.

Sadly.....

They're now terrified that Farage will take all their Leave votes. The remain votes have already gone to Lib Dem / Green and to a certain extent Labour which is why the Tories couldn't care less about Remain and are pushing their "leave no matter what" agenda because if they fail at that, all the Leave voters get fed up and disappear off to Farage. So now they're discrediting Farage as much as possible even though he was a useful ally to Boris in the Leave campaign.

The smart thing to do now is to revoke Article 50. Remain would all come back and go "oh, you aren't that bad after all", Leave can safely be discounted cos they're in the minority now and Farage can take responsibility for the ultra-right wing lunatic branch which should have the effect of showing him up for what he is - a neo-Nazi thug albeit one who is marginally more educated than the Tommy Stephen Yaxley Robinson Lennon lot.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by exdulwicher September 11, 08:30PM

Not sure any of this was written on the side of a bus....

[assets.publishing.service.gov.uk]

Yellowhammer papers - worst case scenarios of a no-deal Brexit. Not quite the unicorns and sunlit uplands is it? Doesn't look like we've regained much control of anything. Not sure that "sovereignity" puts food on the table or fuel in the car or medicines in the hospitals...

Well done Leavers. Great work. Are you finally going to admit that you were all conned? Or do you still think all this is wonderful and just what the country needs?

It's like someone who has been conned out of their life savings or pension and instead of being furious, is sitting there going "oh well I hope the scammer has a nice time on his holidays with my money".

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 09:27PM

Just last week on this very thread Lou was accusing me and others of doom mongering and we weren’t basing anything on facts. And yet here we are

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 09:30PM

Also I get the very strong impression that a document covering problems highlighted would be (and probably was) longer than 5 pages

So who knows how much has been missed. I see the reacted refinery stuff has come out as well this evening

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 September 11, 09:54PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just last week on this very thread Lou was
> accusing me and others of doom mongering and we
> weren’t basing anything on facts. And yet here we
> are

How are these facts? They are planning assumptions - short term possible downsides.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 09:58PM

If you can read that redacted document and only see short term “downsides” I fear for your sanity

Speaking of facts - regale us some more with all of the upsides now!

Oh and also - if these working assumptions published turn out to be true what will you do then? It won’t be take any responsibility will it?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 September 11, 10:04PM

“...Speaking of facts - regale us some more with all of the upsides now!...”

Merkel sees the bigger picture and it’s got her worried

Merkel warns of danger to EU of Singapore-style UK on its border

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 10:05PM

And somehow you think this will encourage her and others to give uk a good deal?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 September 11, 10:19PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And somehow you think this will encourage her and
> others to give uk a good deal?

On the contrary, if you care to read the article you’ll see that she/they/the Eu are so worried that Britain could be successful that

“...EU sources have said that the UK will need to sign up to more onerous, level playing-field obligations than Canada due to the UK’s proximity and the size of its economy...”

Point is, project fear is for the little guys. The big players see the potential upsides and the EU don’t like it.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 10:23PM

And you think of this country goes down that road it will be good for the ordinary joe do you?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 11, 10:24PM

I did read the article earlier today. But it contains nothing to make me optimistic about the future of this country

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL September 12, 07:59AM

Singapore style as described in January

[edition.cnn.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 12, 05:07PM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sephiroth Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Just last week on this very thread Lou was
> > accusing me and others of doom mongering and we
> > weren’t basing anything on facts. And yet here
> we
> > are
>
> How are these facts? They are planning assumptions
> - short term possible downsides.

Come one Keano77, you know the rules mate..."facts" are anything bad that might happen post-brexit; "lies" are anything good that might happen.....

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 September 12, 06:39PM

Yes of course TheCat. Apologies, I don’t know what came over me.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 07:37PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And you think of this country goes down that road
> it will be good for the ordinary joe do you?

I don't think the welfare of the general population is of particular interest to Keano77 and TheCat, Sephiroth. It seems they favour a low wage, low tax, low regulation, minimal welfare model of Brexit. In that case one should have the courage of one's convictions and argue openly for a more unfettered form of capitalism, not neglecting to admit what the consequences for the vast majority of the population will be.

Incidentally I don't think Dulwich Fox would agree with them. He favours the 'Swiss model' of soft Brexit.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 12, 07:51PM

Quite so Jenny

I imagine they would form a coalition just to spite us. But it’s all just a game to them. None of this is real. None of this has any root in reality. And when the reality bites they will blame us.


Spineless.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 08:13PM

I agree that most of the current 'debate' (if you can even call it that) has no basis in reality, it's more like a concocted fever dream. But actually I think it's important that we don't lump supporters of the Singapore Model, such as Keano77 and TheCat, into the same category as those, like Dulwich Fox, who favour the 'Swiss Model' of Soft Brexit. One of the problems with our current situation is the myth that all these radically contradictory models are, in some way, the same thing. That someone who favours shaking off the shackles of regulation is in some way 'on the same side' as someone who wants to live in a country that is tightly aligned with the EU, like Switzerland. That's one reason why none of the alternative scenarios is ever scrutinised adequately.

Anyway, at least we can comfort ourselves with the knowledge that we are living through the most exciting period for constitutional law since the 1640s.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 12, 08:22PM

Wow Jenny...it must be nice to live in your total fantasy land, where you can just completely fabricate what you believe other people's views to be.

I have never once referenced anything to do with a 'Singapore model', never once spoken about this low tax, low regulation environment you refer to. Not even mentioned it, let alone 'supported' it as you seem to have dreamt up.

Go and review my posts above and I think you may feel a bit of a prat for your total lies.

Looks like the people you disagree with aren't the only liars huh?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 08:26PM

I don't need to look back very far TheCat. You referred approvingly above to what you regarded as the positive 'facts' referenced by Keano77 in the article he posted about the benefits of a 'Singapore Model'.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 12, 08:30PM

Jenny1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don't need to look back very far TheCat. You
> referred approvingly above to what you regarded as
> the positive 'facts' referenced by Keano77 in the
> article he posted about the benefits of a
> 'Singapore Model'.

More lies. I referenced Keano's comment stating that the operation yellowhammer paper was not 'fact'. It was a set of assumptions. Nothing to do with Singapore.

That's the second time now you've totally made something up based on your own prejudice. Third time lucky I guess......

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 08:35PM

OK. I see you did reference Keano77's dismissive comments about Yellow Hammer. But Keano77 had just above reinforced his argument with a link to the Singapore Model article. Does this mean that you put little store by the Yellow Hammer warnings, and agree with Keano77 on that, but disagree with his approval of the Singapore Model of Brexit? If so, fair enough, but you didn't make that clear. If you disapprove of the Singapore Model, what are your reasons for doing so, and what would your alternative model be?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was september 12, 08:39pm by Jenny1.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 12, 09:24PM

Jenny1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> OK. I see you did reference Keano77's dismissive
> comments about Yellow Hammer. But Keano77 had just
> above reinforced his argument with a link to the
> Singapore Model article. Does this mean that you
> put little store by the Yellow Hammer warnings,
> and agree with Keano77 on that, but disagree with
> his approval of the Singapore Model of Brexit? If
> so, fair enough, but you didn't make that clear.
> If you disapprove of the Singapore Model, what are
> your reasons for doing so, and what would your
> alternative model be?

Seriously? You've got some balls. You admit you blatantly misrepresented my comments. Don't even bother to apologise. And then imply that it's my fault because I didn't make 'that clear'.

All my comment says is that forecasts are not facts. My opinion on the yellowhammer papers has not in anyway been referenced. And I am not inclined to do so given all you seem to want to do is project what you think my views are.

Try listening a little more, and thinking you know a little less. And that way you might end up having an actual useful debate, rather than the 'fever dream' which you think it is.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 09:42PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>You've got some balls.

Thank you.

We do seem to be talking at cross purposes though. I regarded the flow of comments, from everyone, as being part of a complete debate. So I read the article that Keano77 linked to about the Singapore Model, with approval, as being a reinforcement of his belief that we should not take the Yellowhammer warnings too seriously. The message seemed to be 'Look at this positive vision for the future of the UK - that's what I believe in - rather than the Yellowhammer warnings'. You, on the other hand, did not see it that way. You wanted to agree with Keano77 when he said he did not regard the Yellowhammer warnings as significant, while being careful not to express approval for the 'Singapore Model', which he cited to reinforce his argument. Fair enough. I misunderstood you. I can see your point of view, I would imagine you could also appreciate mine. This isn't really a cause for outrage, is it?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 12, 09:55PM

Jenny1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TheCat Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >You've got some balls.
>
> Thank you.
>
> We do seem to be talking at cross purposes though.
> I regarded the flow of comments, from everyone, as
> being part of a complete debate. So I read the
> article that Keano77 linked to about the Singapore
> Model, with approval, as being a reinforcement of
> his belief that we should not take the
> Yellowhammer warnings too seriously. The message
> seemed to be 'Look at this positive vision for the
> future of the UK - that's what I believe in -
> rather than the Yellowhammer warnings'. You, on
> the other hand, did not see it that way. You
> wanted to agree with Keano77 when he said he did
> not regard the Yellowhammer warnings as
> significant, while being careful not to express
> approval for the 'Singapore Model', which he cited
> to reinforce his argument. Fair enough. I
> misunderstood you. I can see your point of view, I
> would imagine you could also appreciate mine. This
> isn't really a cause for outrage, is it?

Ahhh, sigh. Jenny, I'm not outraged. I'm just frustrated...I can appreciate that you want to have a robust debate about these issues, but I still don't think you're really reading whats written, and are more reading what you think I meant. I did not agree with keano that yellow hammer warnings were not significant. I agreed with keano that the yellow hammer warnings are not fact.

The point that keano, and myself, were making is that a few regular offenders on here seem to take FORECASTS which agree with their pre-existing views and try to dress them up as FACT. When they are clearly not.

I have made absolutely no representation as the validity or otherwise of the yellowhammer papers. Other than to say, let's all remember this is a forecast....it is not a fact.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was september 12, 09:59pm by TheCat.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 September 12, 10:12PM

I guess it's not unusual for people posting on internet forums to misunderstand each other.

But I am still struggling a little with your meaning.

I don't think anyone would claim that, as yet, we have a fully functioning crystal ball that allows us to see the future. To establish 'facts' about the future if you will. But of course that doesn't mean there's no value in forecasting and planning accordingly. If you believe the Yellowhammer warnings to be significant (while being clear that they are forecasts rather than facts), then that surely means you take them seriously. I also wouldn't claim they are 'facts', but I would say they are professionally produced forecasts that should be heeded. This presumably means we agree about that? Would I also be right in thinking that we agree that the 'Singapore Model' is not a particularly useful or desirable one for the UK to aspire to?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by exdulwicher September 12, 10:17PM

TheCat Wrote:
-----------------------------------------------
> Other than to say, let's all remember this is a
> forecast....it is not a fact.

Yeah but you watch the weather forecast and plan activities, clothing etc around that because you know it'll be broadly factual.

You might watch the stock market and know that most of the stuff going on there is again reasonably forecast able (if you know what you're looking for).

Many games and sports you can sort of forecast the tactics if you're a keen follower of said sport and know the broad brush strokes of how it's played. Obviously there's a bit more luck involved but you can broadly expect a forecast in the right ball park from a decent sports pundit.

But here it's just Project Fear? Here it's only a forecast and can safely be ignored because if you believe hard enough it'll surely all be alright?

Weird.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat September 13, 07:05AM

exdulwicher Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TheCat Wrote:
> -----------------------------------------------
> > Other than to say, let's all remember this is a
> > forecast....it is not a fact.
>
> Yeah but you watch the weather forecast and plan
> activities, clothing etc around that because you
> know it'll be broadly factual.
>
> You might watch the stock market and know that
> most of the stuff going on there is again
> reasonably forecast able (if you know what you're
> looking for).
>
> Many games and sports you can sort of forecast the
> tactics if you're a keen follower of said sport
> and know the broad brush strokes of how it's
> played. Obviously there's a bit more luck involved
> but you can broadly expect a forecast in the right
> ball park from a decent sports pundit.
>
> But here it's just Project Fear? Here it's only a
> forecast and can safely be ignored because if you
> believe hard enough it'll surely all be alright?
>
> Weird.


FFS. For you and Jenny's benefit, let me walk you very slowly through what has actually been said, instead of what you guys think people said.....

In reference to the Yellowhammer papers, Sephiroth said:

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just last week on this very thread Lou was
> accusing me and others of doom mongering and we
> weren’t basing anything on facts. And yet here we
> are

And in reponse to that, Keano77 wrote:


> How are these facts? They are planning assumptions - short term possible downsides.

and in response to that I said:

>Come on Keano77, you know the rules mate..."facts" are anything bad that might happen post-brexit; "lies" are anything good that might happen.....


YES.....it was a tongue in cheek comment. But it was directed at Sephiroth's referencing of forecasts as facts (which he/she has a history of doing on this thread). Thats it. How you can both extrapolate from that I am 'dismissing' the value of using forecasts is beyond me.

For reference, I make financial and economic forecasts for a living, and have made a pretty successful career out of it. So I am intimately aware of the use of forecast to plan for all sort of different scenarios and outcomes. And this is the entire point. Of course it is valuable to stress test the possible outcomes so that one is prepared - that is just prudent risk management.

At the end of the day, I said it wasn't a FACT in response to a comment suggesting it was. You guys seemingly agree with that. Please dont extrapolate any more meaning that this. end of.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 07:44AM

None of them can possibly facts until they happen

But given their are a reasonable compilation of predictions of what will happen - it’s no longer a case of remainers “just being emotional”

The question remains - if these predictions happen (and it’s reasonable to assume they will) what then? What does the country do? What do the people who hand waved us away say?

I’m fed up of us driving towards a wall only to be told I’m being alarmist

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Alan Medic September 13, 08:17AM

Would someone please remind me of what the benefits of Brexit are supposed to be? And don't tell me it's a plot by the very rich to avoid tax when new EU laws come in to place. I've heard that one before. I'm sure it's nonsense. I've also heard about controlling our borders, money and laws. It can't be those either, surely. There must be something else. Anyone?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Hemingway September 13, 09:52AM

The only argument I have any slight empathy with is the sovereignty one; 'I believe in a nation state with an accountable government'- it's simplistic (individual sovereignty is not really a reality in 2019 and pooled sovereignty isn't that bad), ignores all the economic pain and assumes that the journey of the EU is inevitably towards increased federalism...but it does have some validity. The rest pie is pie in the sky idiocy, at best.

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