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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 12, 12:09PM

Loutwo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There is also no evidence that the EU will extend
> article 50 if this falls tonight and parliament
> vote in favour of preventing Ďno dealí.
>
> Louisa.

We can revoke A50 in an emergency scenario. Vince Cable (I know smiling smiley ) sees this as a genuine possibility.

EU will extend for a General Election or a Peoples Vote.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 12, 12:42PM

Labour have issues - but Keir Starmer and colleagues are playing this well.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 12, 01:17PM

Flashing up on screens now "ERG says vote against"

The PM has failed it seems (although we've said that before).



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was march 12, 01:21pm by JohnL.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Loutwo March 12, 01:23PM

A third attempt at this vote would open up more questions about democracy. If it is not passed today, I think it becomes far easier for people to question why this canít be handed back to the people to take control of the situation. We have a few simple choices to make, the deal or remain.

Louisa.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Alan Medic March 12, 01:31PM

Wonder will May resign when defeated tonight? She should do.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 March 12, 02:59PM

I don't think so. I suspect this is just another phase in the ongoing war of attrition. This potential timeline (see below) seems like a probable outcome. If it's correct then TM is only aiming to peel off a few more Withdrawal Agreement opponents today, knowing that she can hold a larger gun to everyone's heads as May 24th approaches, and thus get the WA passed at that point. I see reports that approx 13 previous Tory refuseniks are already indicating they'll be backing her in the vote this evening.

[www.politics.co.uk]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg March 12, 03:37PM

Loutwo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A third attempt at this vote would open up more
> questions about democracy. If it is not passed
> today, I think it becomes far easier for people to
> question why this canít be handed back to the
> people to take control of the situation. We have a
> few simple choices to make, the deal or remain.
>
> Louisa.


Thereís a lot of people who would also want No Deal to be on the ballot.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Alan Medic March 12, 03:38PM

No time to read that currently, but on what basis is the extension granted?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 March 12, 04:03PM

It's based on a letter from Juncker to Tusk yesterday saying that Brexit must be wrapped up by the time of European Elections in May. This suggests there may be flexibility for an extension up to that point (on basis of something substantial being done in the UK to justify it presumably). Although clearly both EU and UK side would see a longer extension as being more helpful the assumption is that UK politicians aren't ready to do what would be necessary to achieve that longer extension - ie participate in EU parliamentary elections in May.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was march 12, 04:06pm by Jenny1.

messageRe: Brexit Viewattachment
Posted by carlafindle March 12, 04:16PM

I feel sick...

Attachments: IMG_20190312_150413.jpg (528.8KB)  
messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 March 12, 04:44PM

Yep. Nausea would seem an appropriate response.

On the timeline thoughts above. I know there have been differing views on how 'sacrosanct' UK participation in the EU elections in May is. Suggestions have been made that some kind of compromise, allowing for non-participation, could be reached if the UK were engaged in a referendum on the WA or a GE in the interim. This would mean that an extension to A50 beyond May 23rd would become possible. However there does seem to have been a hardening of legal views recently to suggest that the EU Parliament would not be legally constituted in these circumstances.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 12, 07:46PM

Ed Milliband - Will you come back so we can make some chaos together smiling smiley

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Seabag March 13, 10:47AM

JohnL Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ed Milliband - Will you come back so we can make
> some chaos together smiling smiley



Can you imagine Edís voice talking across the house, and PMTM with her scratchy voice talking back. Itíd make marvellous radio.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth March 13, 11:13AM

except that would never happen

If Ed was leader of Labour, 2017 election would have been Labour's and May would be gone by now

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 12:15PM

May and Corbyn at it like two ferrets in a sack (one with a bad voice). It isn't a good look really.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sue March 13, 12:40PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> If Ed was leader of Labour, 2017 election would
> have been Labour's


I very much doubt that!

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge March 13, 12:42PM

I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop saying that today's big vote, if won, would take No Deal off the table. It won't. It would confirm that there's a majority that don't want ND, but legally it's still there. The only way to remove the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or Revoke A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the legal default of ND from one date to another...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 12:56PM

Spreadsheet Phil Hammond doing a good job of talking down No Deal now - but it'll just inflame the crazies smiling smiley

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth March 13, 01:04PM

I dunno Sue - he came close in 2015 and it was a surprise that that the population reversed their opinion at last minute

Given what transpired between 2015 and 2017 I'd bet good money if Ed had stayed and steadied the ship, Labour would have won handsomely

Then again, if I was leading the Labour party, I'd do a better job than the current imbecile

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Alan Medic March 13, 01:28PM

diable rouge Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop
> saying that today's big vote, if won, would take
> No Deal off the table. It won't. It would confirm
> that there's a majority that don't want ND, but
> legally it's still there. The only way to remove
> the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or Revoke
> A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the
> legal default of ND from one date to another...


From what I read the UK won't get an extension.


[twitter.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin March 13, 01:30PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I dunno Sue - he came close in 2015 and it was a
> surprise that that the population reversed their
> opinion at last minute...
>
Hmmm, was it? Maybe this monumental misjudgement contributed something - as it was just 5 days before the election?

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 02:10PM

I always thoughtthe election was influenced a little by this type of pre-election promise Cameron made (50% + discounts on buying your home if you rent from a housing association. "Those in flats will get a 50 per cent discount, plus an extra 2 per cent for every year of occupation."

[www.express.co.uk]

The reality was this (between 9K and 16K discount) and the scheme failed

[www.ownyourhome.gov.uk]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 02:14PM

Alan Medic Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> diable rouge Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop
> > saying that today's big vote, if won, would
> take
> > No Deal off the table. It won't. It would
> confirm
> > that there's a majority that don't want ND, but
> > legally it's still there. The only way to
> remove
> > the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or
> Revoke
> > A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the
> > legal default of ND from one date to another...
>
>
> From what I read the UK won't get an extension.
>
>
> [twitter.com]
> 67384635392

A few people have suggested that may force parliament to ask TM to revoke A50.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge March 13, 02:22PM

Banks/Wigmore's shenanigans enabling A50 to be revoked...oh the irony.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Blah Blah March 13, 02:56PM

Yep and that might be what is forced to happen. Rumours say that Farage and Banks have locked at least Poland and Hungary into refusing an extension of A50. Well if no deal is taken off the table then only a revoke is left to avoid the no deal. Personally, I think the commission per se are mightier than Banks and Farage and think some kind of extension will be agreed, but it might by set at a year at least with us expected to participate in MEP elections. Worth remembering that both Hungary and Poland benefit greatly from EU funding paid for by the leading five contributors, and they have been leaned on to play ball before over this fact.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 03:48PM

I think the leaders of countries like that might say different when they get to an EU summit than when they're with Banks and Farage down the pub (assuming the EU leaders are pushing an extension - and that means a genuine reason - note that a genuine reason if May's vote had passed would be to get the laws related to it through parliament) smiling smiley

I also note that Kay Burley said to Michael Heseltine the polls hadn't changed then comes a Sky report from Derby which was 58% leave that the latest poll this weekend was 61% remain (comment: we don't totally trust in polls anymore)

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 13, 07:56PM

Chaos Absolute Chaos

Theresa May says there will be a long extension.

Corbyn says he will take control smiling smiley



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was march 13, 07:57pm by JohnL.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu March 13, 11:17PM

Warning - Remoaner alert.

I saw some MP from Essex urging MPs to vote against the no no vote. This would be a betrayal of democracy following the public's decision to leave the EU. Which got me thinking about the 48% who have had no proper representation by those who want to 'respect' democracy. Plenty to think about on the cycle home.

So firstly the PM is not acting as a democrat but an autocrat. Not my original thought.

But what other government would not care about a sizeable percentage of the population, with a high proportion of professionals, intellectuals artisans and the type (pomposity alert I also warn you). A crass comparison (and I am sure that you can also draw from Stalin), Pol Pot.

The Khmer Rouge wanted to eliminate the professional classes, the current UK one wants to alienate many of them. KR wanted to take the country back to year zero. This government back to the 1950s. KR wanted to move to an agrarian economy. This one both secondary and primary production. OK all in bad taste, and probably replace 'the government' by some hard line Brexiteers.

Anyway back to democracy - great statement by Benn about parliament asserted democracy. And dare I say Corbo came over decent.

So back to my issue - government has not worked with pragmatic remainers (unless May is one) to come to a solution. Sadly my money is on her getting the third vote through.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Alan Medic March 14, 07:41AM

May can have a 3rd MV or even a 4th, but she must respect the will of the British people from 3 years ago. Yeah right.

Corbyn playing silly buggers with two weeks to go. What does he hope to achieve? He should be supporting a 2nd referendum as was agreed at the Labour conference.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL March 14, 09:59AM

Alan Medic Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> May can have a 3rd MV or even a 4th, but she must
> respect the will of the British people from 3
> years ago. Yeah right.
>

Bercow has said he will speak on this - technically you cannot bring the same motion again and again. It would be brave of him to tell her No.

ERG (those interviewed) still saying they'll vote against as "Mays deal is not Brexit"



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was march 14, 10:00am by JohnL.

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