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messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 10, 06:54PM

Yes those are interesting points Keano. I did pick up on the scramble emerging as different members make demands on what they want in any trade deal. We still have to remember, that we are the first nation to ever leave, and sorting the trade agreement is new territory. The French want their fishing rights protected. The Germans their car exports protected. And it goes on. It is a lot easier to negotiate something new than let it go of something that already exists.

If another global financial crisis comes off the back of Coronavirus it will be more brutal this time. Banking has nowhere to go on interest rates and economies still recovering from 2008 will be in real trouble.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 March 10, 07:30PM

Yes Blah Blah.

Thereís a sobering article in the Guardian regarding Italyís precarious position, especially financially and the risk of contagion.

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk March 12, 10:28AM

whilst I know that no-one could have foreseen that a virus would hit the world so hard now, if the world is going into a health and economic crisis, it's not a good time to have said you want to terminate your most important existing trade deals without anything to replace them when no-one else's priority will be to get a trade deal done with the UK as they'll have other issues to deal with

even EU talks will be/have been suspended

at least the government are starting to acknowledge that their arbitrary deadline is likely to need moving

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 12, 10:52AM

Technology offers solutions to some of these problems. Online conferencing may well become the norm while this pandemic works through. But even with that, I can not see any trade negotiations anywhere being high on the list of things to do for the next few months. If as predicted, up to 20% of the world's workers being off sick and closures of public spaces kick in, there will be far more important issues pressing on economic and supply issues. In many ways, a pandemic is like a world war, in terms of the disruption to supply lines and resources. Everything will change, even if we do not know to what degree as yet. I don't think Boris will lose any face either by seeking extension to the 'transition' in these conditions.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 March 12, 10:57AM

True pk, the timing is unfortunate but not disastrous - the U.K. can always trade on WTO terms if need be.

Potentially there could be worldwide financial and economic carnage. Thereís talk Italian banks might need as much as a Ä700 billion bailout (the biggest in history) which the eurozone couldnít cope with alone and would need the help of the IMF and US.

[www.marketwatch.com]

Ironically such a bailout could actually strengthen the euro in the long term as Italy might be forced to accept fiscal union rather than leave the eurozone.

[www.telegraph.co.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL March 12, 11:09AM

I would have thought the pressure would be on to extend the transition period due to extraordinary events rather than trade on WTO terms.

Strangely it's the Express saying this - are Reach PLCs papers journalist sharing smiling smiley

[www.express.co.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 12, 11:15AM

Yeah, there is a reason why most countries do not trade on WTO terms solely. To lose our biggest export market on top of a global economic meltdown around this virus would be very foolish. In any case, there is likely to be a global readjustment depending on the economic impacts, which may run deeper than the 2008 crash. I don't see how any good trade deal can be agreed in the middle of such volatility.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by SpringTime June 12, 04:29PM

Not so much anti-Trump or anti-meat but more about good taste for better food. I think this is a good idea:

[secure.greenpeace.org.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah June 12, 10:21PM

This issue has been overshadowed by the pandemic but it still needs some attention. Today the government announced that border controls and customs would be more relaxed than originally planned (presumably because we do not have the resources to step them up after the end of the year). What this will mean in a no deal landscape is anyone's guess. But it could also be an indicator that the government are going to settle for some kind of deal in order to avoid having to spend the money they would need to on the ports and customs infrastructure with no deal. What hard leavers would make of that I don't know. Suffice to say that all negotiations have been kept secret from Parliament, and there will be a reason for that.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by SpringTime June 13, 09:37AM

There's also this petition for those interested in EU talks extension for Covid:

[petition.parliament.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by SpringTime June 13, 10:19AM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> True pk, the timing is unfortunate but not
> disastrous - the U.K. can always trade on WTO
> terms if need be.
>
> Potentially there could be worldwide financial and
> economic carnage. Thereís talk Italian banks might
> need as much as a Ä700 billion bailout (the
> biggest in history) which the eurozone couldnít
> cope with alone and would need the help of the IMF
> and US.
>
> [www.marketwatch.com]-
> a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-co
> ronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10
>
> Ironically such a bailout could actually
> strengthen the euro in the long term as Italy
> might be forced to accept fiscal union rather than
> leave the eurozone.
>
> [www.telegraph.co.uk]
> ronavirus-may-finally-break-italian-resistance-eu-
> fiscal-union/

The Italian banks situation has been worrying me for some time! I still can't believe that this was ever allowed to happen. Even if the outcome ultimately strengthens the Eurozone both the imbalance and the scale of debt is very alarming - skip back to last year:

[www.bloomberg.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 14, 05:18PM

Keano. I wouldnít get excited about wto terms if I were you

World Trade Organisation: No-Deal Brexit will put UK at risk in new depression.

A NO-DEAL Brexit risks extra trouble for the UK during an oncoming recession that could be as deep as the Great Depression, the head of the WTO has said.

'Let's go WTO!'

[www.thenational.scot]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah June 15, 06:05AM

We definitely will be in a terrible position trading on WTO terms with the biggest recession the world has ever seen looming. Covid had been bad enough for UK business so far. Imagine the impact of WTO terms and tariffs! Only a lunatic would persist with a hard Brexit right now.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 09:09AM

"Only a lunatic would persist with a hard Brexit right now."

or several million of them

I know the surveys at the weekend had "more than half" of the public support extension. But that means almost half don't support an extension.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 June 15, 10:07AM

Panic ye not (former) Remainers.

The EU wants a deal, the UK wants a deal and Barnier doesnít want to end his career as the patsy who blew it.

Cue typical EU fudge around Christmas time.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 10:27AM

that hoary old excuse is quite mouldy by now

The EU haven't blinked so far, have infinitely more resilience to this than the UK

If the EU are close to blinking why are we even in a 1 year extension already?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 June 15, 10:39AM

You might find that the notion of the ĎEUí that youíve done such a fine job trying to defend and promote for the past five or six years no longer exists post Covid

Thursdayís coronabonds/debt sharing meeting will be interesting

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 10:41AM

riiiiight

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by diable rouge June 15, 10:58AM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Cue typical EU fudge around Christmas time.

Would that be the same festive fudge Johnson chomped on when he threw the DUP under Santa's sleigh by agreeing to a border down the Irish Sea?...

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 June 15, 11:00AM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> If the EU are close to blinking why are we even in
> a 1 year extension already?

Iím sure you donít need a history lesson from me but itís because a coalition of Remainers forced BJ to request one.

Most of the miscreants were booted out at the general election and are probably now on furlough.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 11:02AM

"Iím sure you donít need a history lesson from me but itís because a coalition of Remainers forced BJ to request one."

well I wouldn't WANT a history kesson from you, but that's very different

Johnson was forced to by reality - not a coalition of Remainers

Still - he's running out of excuses to hide behind now. And when he requests another extension in a couple of weeks we can chow down on some more popcorn

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 June 15, 11:07AM

The EU might beg for an extension - depends on how bad things get with the world economy

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 11:11AM

it wasn't the eu begging for previous extension and they aren't this time either - but they are open to the idea so that we don't embarrass/damage ourselves farther. And Johnson will request it because he knows the damge done to the UK will be on him if he doesn't

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 June 15, 11:22AM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> it wasn't the eu begging for previous extension
> and they aren't this time either - but they are
> open to the idea so that we don't embarrass/damage
> ourselves farther.

They are open to the idea because they are poo-ing their pants that Britain will become more competitive to their stale lumbering tortoise of a structure. Why else are they trying to impose restrictions on a sovereign power?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 11:25AM

Because the sovereign power want the benefits of proximity to the eu without the obligations

Sovereignty isn't a one-way "win/win" - there are tradeoffs. And the UK is unwilling to countenance the cost of it's folly. They aren't restictions "imposed" on a sovereign country - they are the consequences explained clearly during teh referendum and dismissed as project fear.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by diable rouge June 15, 11:27AM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why else are they trying to impose
> restrictions on a sovereign power?

Sovereign nation(s) imposing restrictions on another sovereign nation(s) as part of a trade deal. Welcome to the world of trade deals keano...

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by exdulwicher June 15, 12:31PM

Quote:
We definitely will be in a terrible position trading on WTO terms with the biggest recession the world has ever seen looming. Covid had been bad enough for UK business so far. Imagine the impact of WTO terms and tariffs! Only a lunatic would persist with a hard Brexit right now.

Unfortunately, all the lunatics are currently in the Government and pushing hard for exactly this, a no-deal Brexit. Covid has been a nice distraction for them - allows them to kick the negotiating can down the road a bit, blame the EU for lack of progress and then sell everything off to the Americans in a "trade deal" that rips up food standards, public services and public protections and turns the UK into a paradise for disaster capitalists who, coincidentally, are the same people who fund the Conservative Party.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 12:33PM

"all the lunatics are currently in the Government and pushing hard for exactly this"

agreed. but at the risk of repeating myself.. [looks at keano and his red-pill internet history]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by ianr June 15, 12:56PM

> [looks at keano and his red-pill internet history]

I've no idea what this means. Is it a reference to www.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill; or (probably more likely) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_pill_and_blue_pill?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth June 15, 01:00PM

possibly both?

It's a trope amongst hardcore Brexiters/Trump supporters that everyone else has taken the blue pill and are oblivious/blind to the truth

And they spend too much time down internet wormholes having crazy views reenforced by likeminded souls

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