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messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat September 13, 12:26AM

j.a. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> keano77 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You’ve missed several hundreds posts j.a..
> You’ve
> > got a lot to catch up on.
>
>
> I’ve read the whole thread. You’re quite the
> pompous prick, and you’ve been avoiding questions
> for the whole shebang so far.
>
> Like I say, I see you.

If you'd read all the thread, you'd know IM the pompous prick......

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL September 13, 01:05AM

Suella Braverman taking a bit of a hammering at the Bar Meeting today, but wouldn't be surprised if Boris/Cummings sack Brandon Lewis for announcing it.

"Five QCs confronted the attorney general during Saturday’s meeting, telling her that a crime which broke the law in a “specific and limited way” – the phrase used by the Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, when he announced the move – was still a crime."

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 08:32AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> If you'd read all the thread, you'd know IM the
> pompous prick......


To be fair I think we all take turns wearing that hat, and have done since 2016.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 08:43AM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good post.
>
> You said ...” You won and then rammed it down the
> losers throats like a street fighter...”
>
> By this do you mean Brexiters generally or me
> individually?

> If I did this I apologise to all concerned. I only
> intended to respond to what I considered unfair
> comments.

No, I wasn’t referring to you personally, and I could’ve been clearer.

I certainly was talking about the larger ‘groupthink’ of Leave voters who - I feel - took an understandable victory lap, and then kept taking it and rubbing people’s noses in it. The whole “you lost, get over it” and so on. That’s where it became hot only unnecessary but divisive, and it was the lack of self-awareness on the part of those Leave voters (which is not the same as all Leave voters) which I feel angry about.

Leave won. It didn’t win on any particular mandate other than simply Leaving, and when the discussion about exactly what form Brexit we took began, anyone who’d voted Remain found themselves squeezed out of the discussion. Every version of Brexit has its pros and cons, and if a Remainer pointed out the issues with any given version they were accused of, well, you know the various things. It wears you down after a while, and makes you feel like you’re being told to just shut up and take whatever comes.

There was a point where I was giving serious thought to voting Leave, because I’m not blind to the problems of the EU. But no one could tell me what Brexit would look like - we now see why that’s the case. I personally couldn’t bring myself to support something that was essentially asking me to vote based on the blind faith of “it’ll be alright”. The subsequent years have only reinforced on me the belief that no one in Leave actually knew how to get this done. There is a manifest disconnect between the campaign promises of Leave and how things have developed. I find it difficult to believe that the EU is entirely to blame for this, despite the protestations of Steve Baker et al.

(Edited got spelling mistakes because I wrote this before I’ve had coffee)



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was september 13, 08:44am by j.a..

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 09:03AM

Helmuth Von Molkte (the elder) is supposed to have said (I’ve never been able to find confirmation of it),

“Mistakes in the initial deployment can not be rectified”

This is what I feel went wrong after the referendum, the mistakes were made early on and it’s akin to putting a train on the wrong tracks in the station; you can switch it quickly if you see what’s happened, but once it’s on the move it’s too late. Two things epitomised this.

1. Article 50 didn’t have to be triggered so quickly. As soon as that happened the clock is ticking and the EU had the upper hand because they knew we weren’t ready.

2. May’s disastrous GE. No need to call it, absolutely no need. And now she’s lost the solid majority she had and everyone is jostling for position and advantage.

If I’d been in charge, I would’ve gotten everyone in a room together and told them that there was no way A50 was being triggered until we knew what we were doing. We didn’t have to go so fast, it hamstrung us from the beginning because there was no coherent foundation to the plan.

So here we are taking extraordinary measures to try and get what we want, mostly because the process was ballsed up at the very beginning, and no one realised in time.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 09:17AM

Mistakes happened before the referendum. It was birthed as a sop to the same lunatic wing of the tory party (and the usual newspaper suspects) and wasn’t given any definition, any legal status, usual “gentleman’s word” promise on a leaflet from Cameron
There was no threshold set for such a major constitutional change and the undefined Brexit meant it could be all things to all people

It wasn’t fit for purpose. So if we want to speak of mistakes that is where I would focus

But it’s all too late now - we did leave at the start of the year after all

But the whole thing is a farce from top to bottom

English govt ineptitude then and now. It’s one reason why I want eu membership

Of course we can point to eu structural faults - but compared to how this country behaves? Nah

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 09:35AM

Yeah, fair point. The whole set-up was badly thought out. But as you say, that’s just a history lesson now (though it’d be nice to think we learned something).

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 09:54AM

It’s somewhat concerning that Braverman appears to have sources the legal advice regarding the Internal Market Bill not from the Treasury Council - who would usually be instructed - but rather from committed Brexiteers who seem unqualified for the job in more than one way.

[mobile.twitter.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by ianr September 13, 11:07AM

.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was september 13, 11:16am by ianr.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL September 13, 12:57PM

j.a. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 2. May’s disastrous GE. No need to call it,
> absolutely no need. And now she’s lost the solid
> majority she had and everyone is jostling for
> position and advantage.

She fell apart though - and she wasn't under that much pressure. That crazy speech where she coughed, the letters fell off and she got a P45. Never seen anything like it.

The look of horror in her face.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 13, 01:12PM

The real horror for May was in losing that majority in that snap election she called. It was all downhill from there.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 01:19PM

And yet, we are meant to believe that any of these people (Cameron, May, Johnson, Gove next?) are remotely capable of handling a small country in an increasingly hostile global environment on important matters?

They are all small people. Small minded, incapable of looking beyond their own nose

To lose one PM in 4 years is careless. To lose 3 (yes Johnson will be gone soon) shows you how crazy this situation is. The circle can’t be squared and this country will continue to decline at pace until people cop on and realise the country can’t leave eu and cherry pick the bits they like.

The best case scenario at the moment is a shitty deal, claimed in the short term as a victory only to lead to years and years of grumbling as people realise how worse off they are and how little influence they now have
This pattern of claiming victory only to see it disintegrate within months is well established. People need to start seeing that for what it is. A perpetual diet of snake oil

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL September 13, 02:05PM

Barnier and Frost are arguing it out on twitter now - can't be much official talks going on between them if they're having it out on twitter.

[twitter.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 02:11PM

To be fair tbh at may be for public consumption. I’d imagine there’s a lot more going on behind the scenes.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 02:20PM

I think by now we can call things as they are.


U.K. govt is staffed by liars and worse. We’ve all worked with people like Frost. That sort of wilful misrepresentation and belligerence always ends badly

In short. This is as bad or worse than it seems in public. Hoping for the rescuers to arrive is futile.

Ditch Johnson
Ditch this govt

When that happens, we will start to move forward

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 13, 03:18PM

There are already rumours that Boris will be gone within a year. That suggests that discontent behind the scenes is growing. Cummings was never liked by a lot of Tories MPs in the first place. Essentially, the party is in the hands of a cabal at the moment, that has to deliver on its promises, or it is out.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 03:19PM

Johnson won’t last anywhere near a year

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 13, 03:21PM

You might be right. He certainly doesn't look well these days.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 03:23PM

I’ve long suspected Gove of playing the long, long game here. He knew Johnson was unfit to be PM in 2016. After that he throws his weight behind him, knowing that it’s just a matter of when - not if.

When the axe falls it’ll be Gove’s greasy little mitts wielding it (and his horrendous partner, Sarah Vine, nasty pieces of work both of them). For a long time he’s reckoned he’ll be the next PM, but Sunak’s gonna give him a run for his money.

Gove knows the truth, that Boris is a bluffer who’s never actually dug in on delivering policy.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was september 13, 03:24pm by j.a..

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 13, 03:27PM

Some valid points there J.a.

Sunak might not be a bad alternative in the end. And Sunak vs Starmer might make it feel as though the adults are back in the room, even if the mess they have to deal with might be beyond even them.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 03:40PM

Yep agreed ja and blah

I say Johnson will be gone sooner for more than health reasons tho. January is coming.

His party will do for him then

If gove gets in expect full on rogue state behaviour over Ireland. Possibly even war

Sunak gets a good press but not sure why. Preferable to gove mind

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Alan Medic September 13, 05:15PM

War Sep? Between who?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Sephiroth September 13, 05:34PM

I know it sounds melodramatic. But as I’ve already mentioned Yugoslavia on this thread there is precedent for complete collapse of European countries.

I think it’s unlikely. But not unthinkable. gove has a visceral dislike of GFA and would be happy to see terrorist grouped kick off around the border. Throw in escalating U.K. eu tensions and the need to get goods between Ireland and eu (historically using U.K. as a land bridge) and I believe the ingredients are there

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 13, 05:45PM

My worry is more around folk like Kate Hoey, who are merrily telling anyone who pays attention that the GFA can be ignored. They’ve got a lot of grass roots followers who seem to think Ireland can do what it’s told.

I doubt it’ll come to violence - for all his grossness Gove isn’t going to want to piss off the Irish-American community. Any trouble in NI and they’ll be reading us the riot act.

However, there’s plenty more who seem to think that Ireland, north or south, can submit to the will of the mainland. We’ve been messing with that island for hundreds of years, personally I think that should stop.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by diable rouge September 14, 11:42AM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I think it’s unlikely. But not unthinkable. gove
> has a visceral dislike of GFA and would be happy
> to see terrorist grouped kick off around the
> border. Throw in escalating U.K. eu tensions and
> the need to get goods between Ireland and eu
> (historically using U.K. as a land bridge) and I
> believe the ingredients are there

I suspect this will be the next chapter of the Tories culture war after Brexit is 'done', when they will need some red meat to throw at their base to distract from Covid. Johnson in PMQs has already tried to smear Starmer as a IRA apologist, which backfired, but expect more of the same...

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by diable rouge September 14, 07:26PM

Boris Johnson savaged by Ed Milliband in HoC debate, he won't even make it to Christmas at this rate...

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by j.a. September 14, 07:43PM

Yeah, that was bad. Looks like Gove is going to step in and salvage it.
(See my post yesterday at 3.23pm)

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 14, 11:06PM

I just saw it. Boris looked like the kid trying to avoid answering a question from the teacher at the back of the class. Slumped in his chair, trying to look as small as possible. The body language said it all.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 September 15, 12:02AM

There’s talk of possible life on Venus. If confirmed God help ‘em. There’ll be an E.U. delegation trying to charge them billions a year and telling them what do.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah September 15, 04:04AM

You almost make it sound as though those billions are in return for nothing! The Single Market is the ONLY tariff free market for ALL goods and services in the world. Do you really think there is no regulatory alignment required for other trade deals? ALL trade arrangements are a matter of give and take. That is something Farage et al never really explained to leave voters.

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