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messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 06, 07:49PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> KidKruger Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Anyone got any views on the EU trade talks?
> >
>
> Sure let me just Google some so I can appear
> informed....

Why not consider actually being informed?

Then you might have some ideas as to what to do in practice to minimise the damage that will follow from people voting mostly on a principle without considering the practice (although I should point out that less than half gave that as their main reason according to ashdown)

Or do you think that once about a quarter of people who voted have voted on a principle then nothing else matters, in practice?

If we’re left in a mess it least it’ll be a mess of our own making, so that’s ok?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by stepdown February 06, 08:24PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is my OPINION that most of you on here citing
> all this detail which you've recently googled
> about regulatory and legislative process, knew
> absolutely F. All about much of this prior to the
> referendum.

You have no facts to back up this opinion, but it highlights the real issue here. You are busy re-litigating the referendum when things have moved on beyond the simple "PRINCIPLE of sovreignty" and into the detail. Compromises will have to be made, things other people have been discussing for years now.


TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sure let me just Google some so I can appear informed....

That's how you learn! Nobody was born with an innate knowledge of the EU, but you're now not just refusing to engage with the debate in good faith you're refusing to even inform yourself. There's no defense for that.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by stepdown February 06, 10:36PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But here is who I think you are.

As TheCat is constantly goading us to speculate on their intelligence, I don't think it's particularly helpful to stoop to that level.


TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> even someone as stupid as me had the
> time to click on the link and read it....

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But it's much
> easier to just call us all stupid and ill-informed
> than actually open your mind a little.

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> the anti-brexit mob pouncing on any
> whiff of negative news so they can gleefully pin
> it on Brexit with a big dose of 'See...I told you
> they're all stupid'....

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL February 07, 09:49AM

I'm actually hoping Brexit works even though I'm very pro remain.

I've seen the UK being put to one side as if we're being abandoned by business - I want to shout "we're still here" sometimes.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 10:07am by JohnL.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah February 07, 10:16AM

I suspected that business will flatline for a little while, until EU trade negotiations are completed. My hunch is that in order to protect the cities business, we will have to concede on things like fishing. We should also be fighting hard for car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals (our two biggest export sectors to the EU).

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 10:30AM

Blah Blah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I suspected that business will flatline for a
> little while, until EU trade negotiations are
> completed. My hunch is that in order to protect
> the cities business, we will have to concede on
> things like fishing. We should also be fighting
> hard for car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals
> (our two biggest export sectors to the EU).

"Services accounted for 41% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2018. Financial services and other business services (a category which includes legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and technical services) are important categories of services exports to the EU – in 2018 these two service categories made up just over half of of UK service exports to the EU."

Canada's deal does not provide for free trade in relation to services in the same way as it does for goods

it also took seven years to negotiation

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 10:36AM

Okay Look – Sophiroth, Pk, Stepdown et al…..
 
Im going to ‘open the robe’ here so to speak, so pls allow me a self-indulgent post about myself☺…..and Ill try to be as honest , non-petulant (that’s a fair accusation from Blah Blah!), and conciliatory
as possible…
 
I think that each of your responses to my longer post yesterday are all reasonable and deserve a response/proper engagement from me. As I’ve admitted to a number of times, I have shied away from actually focussing on the issues too much,
as I have clearly felt that the tone of these threads was not conducive to an open discussion.  I have, in the past, engaged extensively on the EDF, and previously posted reams about why I voted the way I did; and have been burned somewhat by what I perceived
as dogmatic, snide, aggressive, mis-representing responses – so hence my more recent posts which have focussed on ‘decorum and respect’ moreso than anything else.

 
As a brief summary for context -  I was totally neutral prior to the vote. I did a lot of my own research (including reading 2 of the detailed economic reports – IMF and PwC – from cover to cover). It was a difficult decision with many
moving parts, and I came down on the side of Leave. In no way do I believe that Brexit is the panacea for all that ails us, and in no way do I think trade deals will be ‘easy’, or quick to establish.  But it’s the decision I made with as much information as
I was practically able to digest at the time (and my decision had nothing to do with what was written on the side of some bus). So I do take some issue when I see the most common comments from remain voters assuming why leavers voted to leave  (let’s be honest,
they’re usually less than complimentary!), as they are usually WAY off base as to why I did. Yes, Im aware that there were some unsavoury types who also voted to leave, that doesn’t mean I endorse the reasons they voted to Leave – I had my own reasons and
frankly, I don’t care what other people’s were.
 
So, to one of sephiroth’s points - yes I do fancy myself –  I fancy myself as something of an advocate for objectivity and balance. Without going into details – my career is based on dispassionate assessment of various factors and forming
a conclusion. And in my experience, for complex issues such as this I think it is extremely rare (nigh on impossible) that one option is ALL GOOD and one option is ALL BAD.  SO again, I do get frustrated when I see remain voters often refusing to concede that
there is ANYTHING potentially positive about Brexit. It’s just seems to me to be willful obstinance.

 
So, Sephirtoh,  of course I worry about the implementation of Brexit. It comes with significant risk, and I’ve never denied that.  Anyone who doesnt worry at least a little are probably ignorant or foolish (and some leavers on the EDF don’t
help themselves with some of their comments I’ll admit!)  Yes, I do worry about the government we have now and the way things will pan out (lets remember that at the time of the vote Cameron and Osbourne were in power – and no matter what you thought of their
politics they were not incompetent, and it was this administration I expected (perhaps naively) to lead the subsequent process).
 
I’ve been asked on this forum so many times exactly what my ‘picture’ of Brexit looked like when I voted. The answer is that I didn’t have one – I voted to leave on various principles with as much information on process/sturtcure as I felt
was prudent at the time (and trusted that a reasonable government would be able to decide the best roadmap for implementation of that broad decision). You may disagree with that approach, that’s fine, I can see why Remaining was also a very attractive option
for wholly different reasons.
 
So we can talk about EU trade talk options now if you like….and I say with genuine conviction, let’s disagree, I’ve absolutely no problem with disagreement. But not every post has to refute or discredit absolutely everything being responding
to. I acknowledge that the idea if a ‘frictionless’ transition is an absolute pipedream, so there’s no need to convince me of that, im personally interested in what the potential positive and negative risks of various options may be....
 
As a starting point…..does the UK have an opportunity to accelerate development of its tech sector dependent on the rules the trade talks come up with?
[capx.co]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah February 07, 10:38AM

Yes that is true, hence the phrase Canada plus plus, the plus being services. We won't get everything negotiated by the end of the year. Pretty much everyone who understands trade deals knows that. So we probably will end up with a loose framework where some things are agreed, while negotiations continue. The question is, does that mean an extension of the transition, because until everything is agreed, we technically are in transition. Or do we take a hit to the sectors still to be negotiated while the talks continue. I think the answer to that will be decided by how much gets agreed by the end of the year.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 10:59AM

Blah Blah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We won't get everything negotiated by the end of the year.
> Pretty much everyone who understands trade deals
> knows that. So we probably will end up with a
> loose framework where some things are agreed,
> while negotiations continue. The question is, does
> that mean an extension of the transition, because
> until everything is agreed, we technically are in
> transition.

I think that extending transition should happen and if it doesn't we'll be doing a rushed job at best and doing a no deal at worst

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by stepdown February 07, 10:59AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So we can talk about EU trade talk options now if
> you like….and I say with genuine conviction, let’s
> disagree, I’ve absolutely no problem with
> disagreement. But not every post has to refute or
> discredit absolutely everything being responding
> to. I acknowledge that the idea if a
> ‘frictionless’ transition is an absolute
> pipedream, so there’s no need to convince me of
> that, im personally interested in what the
> potential positive and negative risks of various
> options may be....
>  
> As a starting point…..does the UK have an
> opportunity to accelerate development of its tech
> sector dependent on the rules the trade talks come
> up with?

I fear you're right that the opportunity for a friction-less trade deal has passed, following a Norway model would require far too much integration now that "sovereignty" has become the primary aim of Brexit.

As far as how the tech sector stands to benefit from the trade deal, we don't know. The EU published draft negotiation guidelines this week but there hasn't yet been any similar detail from the UK government, details here:
[davidallengreen.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah February 07, 11:18AM

To be fair, until those negotiations start in earnest, we don't know what direction they will take. No.10 want to keeps talks confidential, I suspect they will be anything but though.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 11:18AM

pk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Blah Blah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > We won't get everything negotiated by the end of
> the year.
> > Pretty much everyone who understands trade
> deals
> > knows that. So we probably will end up with a
> > loose framework where some things are agreed,
> > while negotiations continue. The question is,
> does
> > that mean an extension of the transition,
> because
> > until everything is agreed, we technically are
> in
> > transition.
>
> I think that extending transition should happen
> and if it doesn't we'll be doing a rushed job at
> best and doing a no deal at worst


Yes, I think it will need to be extended also for similar reasons. But I think Boris is making the right noises for now about not extending it. Keep the pressure on for most of the year, and then as Blah Blah says...see where we are at come end of 3Q of the year....

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 11:32AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Boris is making the right noises for now about not extending it. Keep
> the pressure on for most of the year, and then as
> Blah Blah says...see where we are at come end of
> 3Q of the year....

i don't think it applies much pressure - we're the ones losing free trade with 27 other countries, the EU have each got it covered with 26 of them so will lose it with one

i also think that Boris is saying things that he knows to be untrue (like that Australia has a deal done) and that isn't a great tactic

i also think that if he wants to put the UK in a uniquely strong position, he should try to do something unique rather than re-heat Canada (or tell lies about Australia or 'Withdrawal Agreement' actually being deals) and that'll involve seeking some middleground rather than denying the need for some alignment

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 11:33AM

stepdown Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------The EU
> published draft negotiation guidelines this week
> but there hasn't yet been any similar detail from
> the UK government, details here:
> [davidallengreen.com]-
> texts-what-the-united-kingdom-should-have-publishe
> d-yesterday-but-did-not/

A very fair article. If being optimistic, one could hope that Boris is 'voguing it out' while behind the scenes the civil service is playing catch-up.

The parliamentary shenanigans -including 3 different prime ministers- of the past 3-4 years have surely played a large part in not allowing the civil service to have a cogent and detailed plan or approach to these negotiations. This isn't meant as a dig at remainers, but surely if remain supporting politicians had just acquiesed (under protest) we'd be in a much better position now to approach trade negotiations.

As it stands....we don't appear very well prepared at all. On the bright side we have a PM well versed in 'faking it until he Makes it'....

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 11:47AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> but surely if remain supporting politicians had just acquiesed (under
> protest) we'd be in a much better position now to
> approach trade negotiations.
>
>
I'm not sure that i can see any logic in that

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 11:58AM

pk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TheCat Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > but surely if remain supporting politicians had
> just acquiesed (under
> > protest) we'd be in a much better position now
> to
> > approach trade negotiations.
> >
> >
> I'm not sure that i can see any logic in that


Surely, any preparations for negotiations were either torn up when new leadership took over (which was obviously forced by the splits in parliament on the issue and the pressure the government was under) or were continually put off while the uncertainty over the manner in which parliament would exit (or possibly not exit) was ongoing?

For better or worse this is the first time since the 2017 election when the government has clear road to direct the civil service in accordance with its desires (whether we agree with those desires is another matter of course)...

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 12:09PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> pk Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TheCat Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > but surely if remain supporting politicians
> had
> > just acquiesed (under
> > > protest) we'd be in a much better position
> now
> > to
> > > approach trade negotiations.
> > >
> > >
> > I'm not sure that i can see any logic in that
>
>
> Surely, any preparations for negotiations were
> either torn up when new leadership took over
> (which was obviously forced by the splits in
> parliament on the issue and the pressure the
> government was under) or were continually put off
> while the uncertainty over the manner in which
> parliament would exit (or possibly not exit) was
> ongoing?
>
> For better or worse this is the first time since
> the 2017 election when the government has clear
> road to direct the civil service in accordance
> with its desires (whether we agree with those
> desires is another matter of course)...

I don’t think that makes it remainers fault that the leavers don’t know what they want, in practice

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by stepdown February 07, 12:20PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This isn't
> meant as a dig at remainers, but surely if remain
> supporting politicians had just acquiesed (under
> protest) we'd be in a much better position now to
> approach trade negotiations.

It's tiring to constantly be dragged back into the annals of Brexit, but blaming remain politicians for not giving the Prime Minister carte blanche is a really bad take. The consistently weak and changing leadership can hardly be laid at their door either. I mean, look at the timeline of Brexit Secretaries:
[en.wikipedia.org])

There was plenty of scope to compromise and build consensus, it's hard to argue that the brinkmanship and "like it or leave it" attitude from Number 10 should have been rewarded.


TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For better or worse this is the first time since
> the 2017 election when the government has clear
> road to direct the civil service in accordance
> with its desires (whether we agree with those
> desires is another matter of course)...

There is still no sign that there is a clear understanding of what those desires are, let alone whether they are grounded in reality. Boris Johnson only managed to "re-open" negotiations because he was willing to retreat on the Irish border issue, yet it's pointed to as an example of how he proved the "the doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters" wrong.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 12:25pm by stepdown.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 04:09PM

Allow me to clarify. I'm not trying to blame remainers or remainer MP's. They did exactly what they should have done at the time based on their convictions. They were trying for an altogether different outcome, which did not come off.

But there is clearly an opportunity cost to those efforts unfort, so I'm just observing that with the benefit of hindsight, if we all knew we'd end up in this position anyway, then both sides could have focussed on preparing for the next phase, rather than squabling, and the civil service would have perhaps had a better handle on negotiations.

In anycase, its a moot point/what if/hypothetical that doesn't matter....

The main point I was making was about the seeming lack of preparedness we currently observe....

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 07, 05:45PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> The main point I was making was about the seeming
> lack of preparedness we currently observe....


I guess that’s what happens when issues are over simplified - brexit in principle never meant anything specific about Brexit in practice, although the leave campaigners wanted people to believe otherwise (and seem not to have thought thru the practice themselves anyway!)

As an aside, you’re much more pleasant to deal with today. That’s good (and hopefully doesn’t sound too patronising)

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 06:03PM

pk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TheCat Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> >
> > The main point I was making was about the
> seeming
> > lack of preparedness we currently observe....
>
>
>
> As an aside, you’re much more pleasant to deal
> with today. That’s good (and hopefully doesn’t
> sound too patronising)


Haha. Let's just say I've hit the reset button,

I would agree with your first statement about the lack of specificity over brexit. I've partially admitted as much in my long (cathartic?) diatribe yesterday. I've also always said that I expected and was prepared to wear short term pain (let's call short term the next 3-5 years). For the longer term benefits as I saw them. Others weren't. That's fine.

But in anycase, now we get down to brass tax, and we do need to nut out the specifics. And if may return the compliment, I have actually enjoyed today's discussion, and may have even learnt something!

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 February 07, 07:17PM

Just to play devil’s advocate to re-energise this thread.

The EU needs us more than we (as an independent country) need them.

Many of you are over-complicating things.

The only thing the EU understands is money (see EU bill on Brexit Day)

Access to our fishing fields, no problem - charge them €1 Billion a year (Except Spain unless they drop all claims to Gibraltar).

Access to GCHQ (superior) intelligence €2 Billion a year

And so on and so on

If Boris plays his cards right the EU will be paying us €10 Billion a year (net, index linked) so we sign up to their rules and have a level playing field.

The EU is crapping it’s pants.

Remainers will be happy because we stay as we are (but quids in)

Discuss

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Jules-and-Boo February 07, 09:27PM

oh lord - you're seeing some positivity to it?
That's red rag to a bull on here.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by TheCat February 07, 10:15PM

You see how boring this has become without me being an asshole?smiling smiley

You want me on that wall...you need me on that wall....

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk February 08, 07:32AM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You see how boring this has become without me
> being an asshole?smiling smiley
>
> You want me on that wall...you need me on that
> wall....

I think it was keano that killed it by trying to be weirdly provocative

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL February 08, 07:52AM

Pence is off - talking nonsense. But I'm ok with getting out of Brexit

"Pence told the US broadcaster CNBC: “The United States is very disappointed that the United Kingdom has decided to go forward with Huawei.

“We are profoundly disappointed … When I went at the president’s direction in September I met with Prime Minister Johnson and I told him the moment the UK was out of Brexit we were willing to begin to negotiate a free trade arrangement with the UK.”

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by stepdown February 10, 10:38AM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The EU needs us more than we (as an independent
> country) need them.

The rest of your post relies on this assumption, so it's worth refuting. The UK is far more reliant on the EU.

The EU accounts for 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports. The UK accounts for 18% of the EU’s goods and services exports to non-EU countries:
[fullfact.org]


keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Access to GCHQ (superior) intelligence €2 Billion
> a year

GCHQ's close relationship with the NSA is the reason for its "superior" intelligence, obviously it's symbiotic but "the partnership is asymmetrical, with the US providing far more intelligence to the UK than vice versa". It's why the US thought limiting intelligence sharing would be a credible deterrent against the UK's Huawei plans, although a former US intelligence chief described them as "hamfisted threats from people who don’t really understand how the relationship works”: [www.ft.com]

Intelligence sharing is done because it's mutually beneficial for both parties, a bit like trade. Five Eyes already integrates to a certain degree with other EU countries: [en.wikipedia.org]

But, maybe I'm over-complicating things, given the combined budget of all British intelligence is £3.2bn it's obvious you're just making up numbers that look impressive: [en.wikipedia.org]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah February 10, 01:01PM

Reports today that No.10 are looking into the logistics of building an actual physical bridge between Scotland and NI. What is it with Johnson and bridges?

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Seabag February 10, 03:50PM

Blah Blah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Reports today that No.10 are looking into the
> logistics of building an actual physical bridge
> between Scotland and NI. What is it with Johnson
> and bridges?

Remember his plans for a garden bridge.

And whatever happened to ‘Boris Island’ airport off of the Isle of Sheppey?

Johnson is consistent, I give him that.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by carlafindle February 10, 05:02PM

Seabag Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Blah Blah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Reports today that No.10 are looking into the
> > logistics of building an actual physical bridge
> > between Scotland and NI. What is it with
> Johnson
> > and bridges?
>
> Remember his plans for a garden bridge.
>
> And whatever happened to ‘Boris Island’ airport
> off of the Isle of Sheppey?
>
> Johnson is consistent, I give him that.


A consistent w**ker.

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