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messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by JohnL May 21, 10:32AM

Not all people will objectively calculate risk (people still had unsafe sex in the 1980s) others calculate risk and think 'I'm alright jack' - judging the risk to themselves not society.

Others have financial or other interests - many people still claiming the herd immunity agenda is still there.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Sally Eva May 25, 08:31AM

The daftest one (heard from one of a group of 3 well-spoken but unrelated people)

"I don't know of anyone who has died of it"

Dismissing the world-wide epidemic and all the news from the last two months with a personal anecdote.

There you go, it can't be happening.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by cactus May 25, 09:58AM

A similarly daft one - 'Well if I get it, I get it. It was obviously meant to be.'
Said by one of my neighbours whilst having a 'socially distanced' bbq in our communal garden a few weeks back.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Annie5 May 26, 04:59PM

beck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Queuing outside M%S ( near E Dulwich station)
> today - the man behind me in the queue kept moving
> really close - eventually I said that the
> recommended distance was 2 metres and could he
> move back a bit - he then announced that the
> science says that the risk of catching Covid in
> the open air is virtually nil.
>
> what can you say to someone with that attitude?



So how does he think the 37000 victims caught the virus?

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Peckhampam May 26, 05:03PM

From all the evidence I have read, he is not wrong. The risk of catching the virus outside is low. Most of the people who caught the virus caught it int he home, from household members. Inside, including shops carries more risks and crowded venues and public transport as well. Still no excuse for making you feel uncomfortable

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Sally Eva May 26, 05:35PM

The "keep your distance" advice applies outdoors.

There is a Chris Whitty lecture (at Gresham College) [www.gresham.ac.uk] in which he says people are probably safe one metre apart but two is recommended because two is better.

I know we are all "using our own judgement" nowadays and damn everyone else but OTOH it's nice to be nice.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Penguin68 May 26, 06:15PM

I think the issue in a queue is that at one metre, if you stand back, or someone else does, you can make contact quite easily - Covid-19 doesn't transmit easily across space in the open, certainly (as also the virus is more likely to 'die' more quickly in the open) - but contact, either person to person or person to object to person is a much more likely transmission route - so maintaining 2 metres in a static queue is a good idea, even if someone passing you (without touching you) only a couple of feet away is probably quite safe. It also allows someone to pass through a queue (as can be necessary on retail streets) whilst still coming no closer than a metre during transit.

And for one individual to nay-say another's very real fears is just rude.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by rahrahrah May 29, 08:03PM

The parties have started already. Blaring music and lots of people in a garden near us. No social distancing going on, but lots of weed smoking. This is going to be a tedious weekend.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by heartblock May 30, 09:43AM

My neighbour has been partying every weekend .... guests and no social isolating since it turned hot and sunny. This country is top of the league for infection and death. The ‘official’ numbers are not accurate, as far more people died in care homes than the Government has published. The infection is still prevalent and a second wave is due. Before anyone asks... I lecture at a Medical School and I work clinically. Social isolation is only being relaxed so we stop talking about Cummings and start earning money for shareholders. This Government missed the opportunity to suppress early, with no or little care for the elderly or vulnerable. Track and trace can’t work yet as the app doesn’t work yet and testing time turnaround is too slow. We should all isolate for at least two more months, to suppress.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by KidKruger May 30, 10:38AM

Agreed.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Penguin68 May 30, 10:43AM

The ‘official’ numbers are not accurate, as far more people died in care homes than the Government has published.

The 'official' figures are for those who have died in care homes where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. Many people do, sadly and naturally, die in care homes, of many other causes than Covid-19. Indeed of those who died with Covid-19 on their death certificates some, perhaps many, will have their deaths 'brought forward' by Covid-10, but not, perhaps by that many months. Care homes are frequently an end-of-life option. The figures are put together by the ONS - a body independent of government.

And many people argue that social distancing and hand-washing - already urged before any lock-down was instituted, were already bringing down infections. The most likely places recently to catch Covid-19 have been hospitals and care homes, filled with elderly sick and infected by an NHS keen to clear bed-blockers to allow for an influx of novel Covid cases in hospitals.

The mental health problems caused by lock-down and social isolation are considerable. If people stick to hand-washing and social distancing (some evidently weren't, to the latter, well before any relaxation) then a second wave can still be offset.

And far from 'earning money for shareholders' you might consider a re-start of economic activity as earning money for taxation and reducing your (that is government's, but where do you think that's coming from) expenditure on mitigating hardship for those not able to work.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by rachp May 30, 12:14PM

That's ridiculous to boil the need for economic activity down to shareholder profits- people need to work and save their businesses, we can't live on thin air. Overly simplistic arguments like this don't help anyone.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by seenbeen May 30, 12:54PM

Penguin68 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The ‘official’ numbers are not accurate, as far
> more people died in care homes than the Government
> has published.
>
> The 'official' figures are for those who have died
> in care homes where Covid-19 is mentioned on the
> death certificate. Many people do, sadly and
> naturally, die in care homes, of many other causes
> than Covid-19. Indeed of those who died with
> Covid-19 on their death certificates some, perhaps
> many, will have their deaths 'brought forward' by
> Covid-10, but not, perhaps by that many months.
> Care homes are frequently an end-of-life option.
> The figures are put together by the ONS - a body
> independent of government.
>
> And many people argue that social distancing and
> hand-washing - already urged before any lock-down
> was instituted, were already bringing down
> infections. The most likely places recently to
> catch Covid-19 have been hospitals and care homes,
> filled with elderly sick and infected by an NHS
> keen to clear bed-blockers to allow for an influx
> of novel Covid cases in hospitals.
>
> The mental health problems caused by lock-down and
> social isolation are considerable. If people stick
> to hand-washing and social distancing (some
> evidently weren't, to the latter, well before any
> relaxation) then a second wave can still be
> offset.
>
> And far from 'earning money for shareholders' you
> might consider a re-start of economic activity as
> earning money for taxation and reducing your (that
> is government's, but where do you think that's
> coming from) expenditure on mitigating hardship
> for those not able to work.

Exactly. And if you look around there are not that many older people out and about in busy areas. As far as I'm concerned it was the WHO and China that missed the opportunity to shut it down in early January.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Growlybear May 30, 03:01PM

heartblock Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My neighbour has been partying every weekend ....
> guests and no social isolating since it turned hot
> and sunny. This country is top of the league for
> infection and death. The ‘official’ numbers are
> not accurate, as far more people died in care
> homes than the Government has published. The
> infection is still prevalent and a second wave is
> due. Before anyone asks... I lecture at a Medical
> School and I work clinically. Social isolation is
> only being relaxed so we stop talking about
> Cummings and start earning money for shareholders.
> This Government missed the opportunity to suppress
> early, with no or little care for the elderly or
> vulnerable. Track and trace can’t work yet as the
> app doesn’t work yet and testing time turnaround
> is too slow. We should all isolate for at least
> two more months, to suppress.

I couldn't agree more. And for the third weekend running, my neighbours are having a nice jolly barbecue with their friends, with little children running around and playing closely together. They were all inside the house for some time (presumably because the smoke from their barbecue was a bit overwhelming) and are now all snuggled close together eating. The only thing that's missing is their nanny, who has been working throughout the lockdown.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Penguin68 May 30, 03:12PM

with little children running around and playing closely together.

As described this clearly breaks the guidance, although there is no evidence, world-wide, of children under 10 infecting adults, and generally young children are either symptomless or the impact is very mild on them. So probably the actual risk, as regards the children, is very low - and the positive effects of children socialising may well outweigh any negative Covid-19 impacts.

Which is not to excuse or condone the actions of the adults, who are clearly not 'being alert' - and are putting themselves (as adults) at risk, as they are any more vulnerable people they may be in contact with at work or home.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Growlybear May 30, 03:51PM

If the risk is that low, then why are schools and unions so concerned about opening primary schools more widely? And why is the guidance they are being given that children should be put into bubbles of 8-10 children per classroom? I’m not convinced that it is entirely wise for the little children next door to now be playing in a substantial swimming pool with various adults from different families coming out of the house, where they have now gone to escape the heat, to check on them. There may not be strong scientific evidence about the role in children transmitting the virus but the general consensus of the scientists involved seems to be that the lockdown (which was never a proper lockdown compared with many countries ) should not be relaxed to this extent yet and it’s too early for schools to be returning.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by JohnL May 30, 03:52PM

seenbeen Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Exactly. And if you look around there are not that
> many older people out and about in busy areas. As
> far as I'm concerned it was the WHO and China that
> missed the opportunity to shut it down in early
> January.


But we (the UK) should be a bastion of the WHO - why else are we one of 5 permanent members of the security council - supposedly the only nations (the other 4) that could stand up to China - and when USA withdraws are the creating an alternative ?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was may 30, 03:53pm by JohnL.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Abe_froeman May 30, 07:59PM

Careful you don't do yourself a repetitive strain injury twitching those curtains...

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Chunx May 30, 10:49PM

And how will car reliant disbled peopke get around.
Why cant every one use the pavement on the left side of the road to walk on? Like cars drive on left.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Blah Blah June 02, 07:28AM

Let's see where we are in four weeks time. Let's see where we are in the Autumn when other seasonal pathogens and bacteria have everyone coughing and sneezing.

The government has clearly decided that it can switch to a regional model of containment (even though it has no app up and running as yet and is relying entirely on contact tracing compliance). In countries that do operate regional containment, they have community led teams, with experience in epidemics, that focus on local suppression. My worry is that the government are relying on a centralised model.

Bear in mind that it takes around two weeks for any significant increase in that R number to show itself. The risk of infection is currently 1 in 1000, compared to 1 in 40 at the peak. BUT the level of infectiousness and mortality has not changed. While the overall management strategy can change, it can only do so if the public understands that differential, and continues to exercise the things that work, like social distancing and avoidance of enclosed spaces.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by KidKruger June 02, 08:11AM

This "let's see how it goes" and "make it up as we go along" approach really winds me up.
With any pandemic clear conditions for containment, release, testing, tracing, use of an app could be set waaaay in advance - you could virtually take the fundamental precepts for it off the shelf.
Yet we're in this vague, moronic situation where nothing being enacted seems to relate to reality, risk to the population, or a shared effort to make the population feel protected, informed, and involved.
It's as if the exact opposite impression was the objective - in which case the Govt are coming across as experts !

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Blah Blah June 02, 09:43AM

They have stopped listening to the experts it seems.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by JohnL June 02, 09:56AM

I saw Italians were claiming COVID-19 had decreased in virility and mortality in Italy - can't find link maybe they removed it. Anyone see the same ?

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by ianr June 02, 11:06AM

> I saw Italians were claiming
> COVID-19 had decreased in virility
> and mortality in Italy

Please read, for example, this non-technical report before grasping at any conclusions. [www.businessinsider.com]. From which ...
"We need to be exceptionally careful not to create a sense that all of sudden the virus, by its own volition, has now decided to be less pathogenic," he said on Monday. "This is still a killer virus."
.....
"It may not be that the virus itself is becoming less potent," Ryan said. "It may be that we are — as community and as a global community — successfully reducing the number, intensity, and frequency of exposure to the virus, which, on the face of it, the virus then looks weaker."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was june 02, 11:17am by ianr.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by JohnL June 02, 12:12PM

Thanks for the link ianr.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by Blah Blah June 02, 06:14PM

Which is the point I was making. All that has changed is the number of people infected, and therefore the level of spread. The way the virus behaves once it infects a person, and the percentages of those infected that need ICU care and/or die has not changed. So keeping that R number down is really important, and what happens there is what will drive government policy moving forward. The world is in a much better place of understanding of this virus than it was five months ago. That means navigating a sensible way forward should be possible.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by redpost June 03, 10:49AM

Chunx Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And how will car reliant disbled peopke get
> around.
> Why cant every one use the pavement on the left
> side of the road to walk on? Like cars drive on
> left.

Are you suggesting that pavements become one-way in order to avoid allocate some road space to pedestrians?

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by seenbeen June 03, 01:49PM

Blah Blah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They have stopped listening to the experts it
> seems.
'They' meaning a large portion of the general population didn't listen to anyone from day 1

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by woodland June 04, 09:24AM

Covid-19 deaths across Europe yesterday.
United Kingdom - 359
all of the rest of Europe - 324
The figure not going down quickly is widely reported in the press. It isn't a surprise. I feel very thankful that all the people I love are still safe and well and very sad for the 50,000 UK families who can't say the same. I understand the economic reasons to make changes but I wonder how many more elderly people (who seem to have suddenly become not as important as young people for some) will die unnecessarily because of this decision.

messageRe: Ignoring lockdown in ED
Posted by seenbeen June 04, 11:58AM

The death of elderly people will impact the less well-off as this report shows that they provide childcare for their grandchildren as nursery fees are so high, (or affordable places are unavailable in many areas unless you are a single parent....)
[www.ageuk.org.uk]

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