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messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by alice September 10, 06:25PM

36% of Southwark children live in poverty. That means family income is below £19000.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by exdulwicher September 10, 06:28PM

rupert james Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How does Southwark get these numbers. Direct from
> DVLA registration or off an from official must
> complete survey in the borough census.
>
> Have to admit when I have been through the so
> called poor areas there are many many expensive
> cars being driven by young people and parked up.
>
> Makes you wonder if these surveys are worth the
> effort and are the truth.

[tfl.gov.uk]
[www.london.gov.uk]
Plus census data and voting records. DVLA would sell them the car registration info if they asked for it as well.

Travel data is from Oyster Cards, contactless and season tickets.

when I have been through the so called poor areas there are many many expensive cars being driven by young people and parked up.

[stereotype] They're the local drug dealers [/stereotype] winking smiley

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by rupert james September 10, 06:44PM

Thanks for reply.

So if they did not put down they own a car/cars no one would know?

Not sure what oysters cards etc have to do with owning a car, could just be parked up until it is used and use public transport in during day.

So the census would be meaningless and who owns what would never be be apparent.

Plenty of room for adjustments to fit the requirement.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Rockets September 10, 07:16PM

stecoward101 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> @Rockets 'and then manipulated by the council for
> their own benefit'. Why would a council manipulate
> the data. They want to reduce the number of cars.
>
>
> It does not matter If Southwark have a lower car
> use than most other boroughs as if it is still
> high then you need to do something.
>
> rockets, this is not rocket science.

The council manipulated the data to convince people there was a 46% increase of traffic through the DV junction to create a mandate to have it closed. It was a lie and blatant manipulation of the data to create public support for their changes. Traffic through the DV junction had been going down year on year and the only increase was that of pollution after they changed the junction layout during the first OHS "improvements".

No, it's not rocket science - the council probably hope that it was as the problem for them is when non-rocket scientists like myself scratch a little beneath the surface they can expose where the council has been trying to hoodwink the constituents!

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Rockets September 10, 07:27PM

Here the full league table of car sinners from TFL - for some reason it pastes upside down so Islington is the best and Bexley the worst!


Islington
Tower Hamlets
Hackney
Westminster
Haringey
Hammersmith & Fulham
Southwark
Newham
Camden
Lambeth
Lewisham
Waltham Forest
Kensington & Chelsea
Wandsworth
Brent
Barking & Dagenham
Enfield
Hounslow
Ealing
Redbridge
Greenwich
Richmond upon Thames
Merton
Kingston upon Thames
Croydon
Havering
Bromley
Harrow
Barnet
Hillingdon
Sutton
Bexley


BTW did anyone see the ITV 6 o'clock local news - big segment on the controversy of the LTNs using the stuck fire engine in Brixton as the catalyst for the story. Someone has organised a march to Brixton Town Hall to protest. The news item said there were 160 LTNs put in in the last few weeks across the capital. Interesting that the mayor's office rolled out a spokesperson rather than Lambeth immediately elevating the story to mayoral responsibility rather than local council.

The issue is getting more and more attention.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dogkennelhillbilly September 10, 10:30PM

"Makes you wonder if these surveys are worth the effort and are the truth."

Admits to not knowing how the data is produced, says it's useless anyway because he's seen expensive cars in poor neighbourhoods. Why would it ever be worth responding?

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by slarti b September 11, 12:29AM

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> An 11% reduction in car usage in one fell swoop would be a huge achievement. It just goes to show
> how many of those journeys weren't critical.

The figure of 11% evaporation comes from a 20 year old study using highly subjective data, dubious methodology and some very, very dodgy statistics. Even the authors admit some of their working data (eg evaporation of 149%) was incorrect and\or unreliable.

But even taking their dodgy figures as correct, that still leaves 89% of traffic to be displaced. Where will it go?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was september 11, 12:32am by slarti b.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Rockets September 11, 10:59AM

slarti b Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > An 11% reduction in car usage in one fell swoop
> would be a huge achievement. It just goes to show
> > how many of those journeys weren't critical.
>
> The figure of 11% evaporation comes from a 20 year
> old study using highly subjective data, dubious
> methodology and some very, very dodgy statistics.
> Even the authors admit some of their working data
> (eg evaporation of 149%) was incorrect and\or
> unreliable.
>
> But even taking their dodgy figures as correct,
> that still leaves 89% of traffic to be displaced.
> Where will it go?

I have noticed that the council has, retrospectively, put more monitoring in place around Dulwich. It will be interesting to see what conclusions they come to - one hopes they have monitoring data from before the road closures were put in place so they can make a proper comparison.....we know they only had monitoring added to the closed roads around DV and weren't monitoring the displacement roads from the start.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by micromacromonkey September 11, 12:37PM

I have just driven down Grove Vale for the first time since these restrictions were put in place, from Quorn road right down to the harvester junction. Traffic is very slow and it was a frustrating experience.

And that's great, because my journey was totally unnecessary (one household member was in a hurry thought it would be quicker to drive than cycle). Hopefully all the other people in the traffic will feel the same way and quit labouring under the misapprehension that they have a right to be able to drive their car unimpeded wherever they like.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by ed_pete September 11, 10:22PM

> I have noticed that the council has,
> retrospectively, put more monitoring in place
> around Dulwich. It will be interesting to see what
> conclusions they come to - one hopes they have
> monitoring data from before the road closures were
> put in place so they can make a proper
> comparison.....we know they only had monitoring
> added to the closed roads around DV and weren't
> monitoring the displacement roads from the start.

I very much doubt the council will have monitoring data from a comparable period, if at all. I strongly suspect that whatever data is collected will be spun to justify the changes.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by AlexandHelenC September 12, 07:36AM

I donít understand the fundamental purpose of this scheme. If the answer is to close the roads, what is the question? The roads are still open, albeit quieter, so the scheme doesnít create any more space to walk on (was lack of space for pedestrians even a problem in the first place??).

The impact of the displaced traffic is dramatic. I live on Oxonian Street and weíve seen a huge increase in cars cutting through, frequently speeding in the wrong direction on the one way street. The dramatic increase in congestion and therefore pollution from the displaced traffic is absolutely evident and has made Lordship Lane unpleasant to walk along. I think I saw that theyíre planning to keep this in place for up to 18 months! Itís truly shocking.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dulwichgirl82 September 12, 08:00AM

Hoya Iíve sent you a pm but not sure if the alerts are coming through!

AlexandHelenC Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I donít understand the fundamental purpose of this
> scheme. If the answer is to close the roads, what
> is the question? The roads are still open, albeit
> quieter, so the scheme doesnít create any more
> space to walk on (was lack of space for
> pedestrians even a problem in the first place??).
>
>
> The impact of the displaced traffic is dramatic. I
> live on Oxonian Street and weíve seen a huge
> increase in cars cutting through, frequently
> speeding in the wrong direction on the one way
> street. The dramatic increase in congestion and
> therefore pollution from the displaced traffic is
> absolutely evident and has made Lordship Lane
> unpleasant to walk along. I think I saw that
> theyíre planning to keep this in place for up to
> 18 months! Itís truly shocking.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dulres3 September 12, 10:24AM

TheCropolite Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think youíre still not getting it. There are too
> many car trips in London, plain and simple. Data
> from TFL shows that 35% of car trips are under
> 2km.
>
> [content.tfl.gov.uk]
> avels-by-car-in-london.pdf
>
> Thatís under 30 mins walking or 10 mins by bike.
> In London most of those 1-2km trips will be
> quicker by bike or scooter etc. anyway. Some
> people may need a car for transporting goods,
> fine. But most (around 60%) of those trips are
> also being made by single individuals with no
> passengers.
>
> This government is not going to introduce sweeping
> legislation to stem car use in London which Iím
> not going to get into but if everyone who was
> making those 1-2km trips by car stopped we would
> have 35% less cars on the road which is a huge
> number, which would also improve journey times for
> those making longer trips or who really need to.

Short of tracking the entire populations movements, thereís no way to differentiate between a journey of 2k and a journey of 15k to an area poorly served by public transport. Closing roads increases journey times for everyone regardless of the intent, necessity or length of journey.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dogkennelhillbilly September 12, 02:45PM

"Short of tracking the entire populations movements, thereís no way to differentiate between a journey of 2k and a journey of 15k to an area poorly served by public transport."

That's not true - but no-one ever reads the methodology for data gathering and traffic analysis which, shocker, is actually quite developed and very complicated. They just slag off the "data" because they don't like the conclusion or don't understand it.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Rockets September 12, 04:41PM

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "Short of tracking the entire populations
> movements, thereís no way to differentiate between
> a journey of 2k and a journey of 15k to an area
> poorly served by public transport."
>
> That's not true - but no-one ever reads the
> methodology for data gathering and traffic
> analysis which, shocker, is actually quite
> developed and very complicated. They just slag off
> the "data" because they don't like the conclusion
> or don't understand it.

Take a look at the "data" gathered for the OHS consultation on the DV closures (before Covid); the lack of granularity in the data is shocking. The council could tell you how many cars passed through the junction every day but they had no idea where they went beyond the junctions in the village - which is vital to determining the likely impacts of closing said roads. If those journeys were all under 1 mile then yes, the impact of the closure could be positive. If the journeys were 3 miles or more then the likely impact would be negative on surrounding roads as displaced traffic tried to find another route.

But the council had no clue and I suspect they know but don't want to hear the answer as it would mean people would have questioned the sense in doing it.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by exdulwicher September 12, 06:34PM

Quote:
Short of tracking the entire populations movements, thereís no way to differentiate between a journey of 2k and a journey of 15k to an area poorly served by public transport.

There are countless books, technical journals, websites and videos that describe how traffic is modelled, how flow rates are calculated, how journey types are differentiated, how multi-modal travel is accommodated, the methodology behind it, the data gathering processes...

Some of it is incredibly technical - even Wikipedia has some quite in-depth mathematical speak - but there's plenty of introductory information there too. All easily available to search for online.

You can read TfL's Modelling Guidelines here, it's only 184 pages. Bit of light bedtime reading...
[content.tfl.gov.uk]

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dogkennelhillbilly September 12, 07:28PM

No, no, no, you don't need to read any of that. All you need is "common sense" and "stands to reason" and some half-remembered stuff about Archimedes and Newton. We're sick of all these experts and their so-called understanding and experience.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by hpsaucey September 12, 07:58PM

This! 👍

micromacromonkey Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have just driven down Grove Vale for the first
> time since these restrictions were put in place,
> from Quorn road right down to the harvester
> junction. Traffic is very slow and it was a
> frustrating experience.
>
> And that's great, because my journey was totally
> unnecessary (one household member was in a hurry
> thought it would be quicker to drive than cycle).
> Hopefully all the other people in the traffic will
> feel the same way and quit labouring under the
> misapprehension that they have a right to be able
> to drive their car unimpeded wherever they like.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by macutd September 12, 08:33PM

nice to have all that extra pollution of that heavy traffic, NOT

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by first mate September 13, 07:31AM

And for anyone who has to make an urgent, necessary trip by car...they must be made to suffer too?

Is there a way for emergency services to circumvent these jams?

hpsaucey Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This! 👍
>
> micromacromonkey Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I have just driven down Grove Vale for the
> first
> > time since these restrictions were put in
> place,
> > from Quorn road right down to the harvester
> > junction. Traffic is very slow and it was a
> > frustrating experience.
> >
> > And that's great, because my journey was
> totally
> > unnecessary (one household member was in a
> hurry
> > thought it would be quicker to drive than
> cycle).
> > Hopefully all the other people in the traffic
> will
> > feel the same way and quit labouring under the
> > misapprehension that they have a right to be
> able
> > to drive their car unimpeded wherever they like.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dogkennelhillbilly September 13, 08:36AM

Everyone thinks their own journey is urgent and necessary. London is overrun with people making urgent and necessary car journeys. That's the whole problem. If people only really drove when it was urgent and necessary to do so, we wouldn't need any of this shit in the first place.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by first mate September 13, 08:45AM

Yet, some people will have urgent, necessary journeys. Youíre view seems to be they should just accept this? What about emergency services?

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Monkey September 13, 09:14AM

Emergency services wouldnít be impaired if people didnít build their lives around their cars.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by first mate September 13, 09:23AM

Yes, but in the here and now, is it your position that those with genuine urgent needs, as well as requiring access to emergency services should, effectively, be sacrificed in the interests of a long-term agenda to reduce car usage and ownership? Not forgetting that the overriding rationale of that agenda is to reduce pollution to produce a healthier environment?

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Monkey September 13, 09:40AM

People have been sacrificed due to underfunding of the nhs, which has caused less bleeting on this forum than the road closures. If people are so concerned about emergency services, they should get out of their cars. Driving and polluting are not a right.

Iím extremely frustrated by how shit public transport is in South London and had resorted to driving part of my way to work. This is no longer possible so I got on my bike. Guess what? My journey has never been faster and I donít stand in the way of emergency services.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by TheCropolite September 13, 10:44AM

first mate Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, but in the here and now, is it your position
> that those with genuine urgent needs, as well as
> requiring access to emergency services should,
> effectively, be sacrificed in the interests of a
> long-term agenda to reduce car usage and
> ownership? Not forgetting that the overriding
> rationale of that agenda is to reduce pollution to
> produce a healthier environment?

Do you have any data to show the emergency service response times are affected by this? I can guarantee you the only thing disrupting their response times on the road and the masses of people driving for absolutely no good reason.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by Dogkennelhillbilly September 13, 12:07PM

first mate Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, but in the here and now, is it your position
> that those with genuine urgent needs, as well as
> requiring access to emergency services should,
> effectively, be sacrificed in the interests of a
> long-term agenda to reduce car usage and
> ownership? Not forgetting that the overriding
> rationale of that agenda is to reduce pollution to
> produce a healthier environment?

You can't improve the lives of those with "genuine, urgent needs" without getting rid of the people whose journeys are not necessary. You could make every road in London a dual carriageway and there would still be traffic jams and pollution- demand for free unrestricted road space is always going to exceed supply in London. Everyone - residents, businesses and travellers - is going to have to change (and already is changing) the way they get around and organise things to some degree. That's not going to come without some short term inconvenience and friction.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by stecoward101 September 13, 12:15PM

@donkennelhillbilly - Do most cars not inc start/stop tech to ensure there is less population? Additionally the whole point is to reduce the number of cars.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by first mate September 13, 12:54PM

You are not really answering my question though.

We all get the theory but we also need to address the reality. Owing to very recent measures there has been a sharp, unprecedented, rise in traffic displacement onto main routes, causing a massive rise in congestion. One effect is to negatively impact those who do need to make urgent journeys as well as reduce access to emergency services.

These impacts are very, very recent. Do you view the suffering of some as necessary to secure an ambition to reduce car ownership?



Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> first mate Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Yes, but in the here and now, is it your
> position
> > that those with genuine urgent needs, as well
> as
> > requiring access to emergency services should,
> > effectively, be sacrificed in the interests of
> a
> > long-term agenda to reduce car usage and
> > ownership? Not forgetting that the overriding
> > rationale of that agenda is to reduce pollution
> to
> > produce a healthier environment?
>
> You can't improve the lives of those with
> "genuine, urgent needs" without getting rid of the
> people whose journeys are not necessary. You could
> make every road in London a dual carriageway and
> there would still be traffic jams and pollution-
> demand for free unrestricted road space is always
> going to exceed supply in London. Everyone -
> residents, businesses and travellers - is going to
> have to change (and already is changing) the way
> they get around and organise things to some
> degree. That's not going to come without some
> short term inconvenience and friction.

messageRe: Urgent: Help Reopen Closed Melbourne Grove and adjacent roads
Posted by JonnoJ September 13, 01:03PM

If you care about the future of the planet, support these street restrictions.
Think wider picture. Traffic is a catastrophe for the planet and reduces all our life spans due to pollution.

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