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Damned natural phenomena - why can't forecasts be more than probabilities. I suggest someone writes to God or the Rail Technology Magazine. Forecasts are predictions, based on probability. The better the model the closer they will be. The best modelers in the known universe are our own Met Office. Not rocket science. There's currently a ninety percent chance of snow in the capital. If you got a thousand metre squares and threw them from a great height so they were scattered all over London you'd find at this time it would be snowing on between 735 and 942 of them.


Did you all have your eyes and ears shut when you were at school doing biology and learning about statistics? I am sure that there are plenty of night school classes.

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