EU Trade Talks Thread

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> "Also...point of order, Cat's don't have

> snouts..we prefer the term 'nose leather's..."

>

> Fair

>

> "Try and play the ball, not the man, Sephiroth.

> And I'm referring to AEP's article, not myself. "

>

> Nah - once someone is a proven snake oil salesman,

> it's fair to judge them. "Play the ball not the

> man" is an overplayed card. There are too many bad

> actors- they need calling out. Their arguments

> define them

Well...the 'guts' of the main points in his article are lifted straight from an investigative report in Der Speigel......who I would argue it's slightly harder to discredit....

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-planning-disaster-germany-and-europe-could-fall-short-on-vaccine-supplies-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd

[Sephiroth]

"slightly"

[Sephiroth]

Put it this way. - that article makes a number of bold claims and the only people I can see picking up on it are the express going "ha!!!"

But it doesn't seem to be landing in the wider community. If it turns out to be true then there will be a brouhaha. Suspect it's overcooked tho

[Sue]

JohnL Wrote:

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>

>

> I think Admin can see IP addresses of posters -

> so the games up if they have the same IP all the

> time (of course users then claim they are flat

> mates and share an internet connection).

Yes Admin can, but some people who have used multiple forum names in the past know all about the IP thing.

It's quite easy to change your IP address whilst still using the same PC or whatever.

But in any case, people masquerading as someone else are not necessarily using more than one forum name simultaneously.

[Blah Blah]

JohnL Wrote:

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> If Boris gave way on fishing I'd say that was

> pragmatic

Apparently that is what has happened. Only rumours right now, but it seems the EU are leaking, hence Reuters breaking that the EU commission are meeting tm. Leaking I guess to prevent any row back from the UK side, when Boris takes it to his cabinet, if he hasn't already. So something is agreed for sure. Whether the EU 27 and the UK government like it remains to be seen. Boris can probably rely on Labour support if he has a backbench rebellion, to get it through. All going to be messy for him politically though.

[JohnL]

This deal sounds like a Goldilocks deal gone wrong

Too hot for the leavers

Too cold for the Remainers

[TheCat]

Imagine being the EU intern who didn't refresh the spreadsheet data links yesterday......

The lengthy delay in today's announcement on the trade deal is caused by the European Commission using out of date figures on the amount of fish that EU member states catch in UK waters, The Telegraph understands.

Boris Johnson is understood to have made a major concession to the EU by agreeing to their red line of no more than 25 percent of the value of fish caught in UK waters being repatriated to British fishermen.

In return, he secured a five and a half transition period during which the new quotas would take effect before annual negotiations over fishing opportunities with the EU would begin.

But the Commission's sums on fishing stocks were wrong, causing alarm when the contents of the deal was reported back to member states.

The deal has been delayed while officials work through the issues.

[diable rouge]

No idea if related to the above, but I read somewhere a couple of days ago that Denmark considered No Deal, with respect to fishing rights, was better for them than some of the % proposals being bandied about...

[Sephiroth]

"Imagine being the EU intern who didn't refresh the spreadsheet data links yesterday...... "

the unholy mortification of it

[Sephiroth]

whatever gets announced today, and however it's greeted, it would be wise to let it sink in and digest before getting too worked up either way

[malumbu]

Like when you were a kid going to the coast with your family. "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet"

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> whatever gets announced today, and however it's

> greeted, it would be wise to let it sink in and

> digest before getting too worked up either way

Nah...let's go for emotive, knee-jerk reaction....just to ensure we remain in keeping with both sides over the last 4.5 years....:)

[TheCat]

malumbu Wrote:

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> Like when you were a kid going to the coast with

> your family. "Are we there yet" "Are we there

> yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are

> we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there

> yet"

Yep.....love Boris, or hate Boris....surely we can all agree on how irritating it is that he regularly horrendously late for his own press conferences....

[JohnL]

Being late regularly and having big announcements on Christmas Eve is something a dictator would do IMHO

When Maxwell used to pee over the side of the Mirror building (even when people were below) - that was also symptomatic of a narcissist - not heard of Boris doing that .... yet.

[TheCat]

So far, in the popular print and broadcast press (as well as social media) I've seen a lot of rejoicing, but also a lot of tantrums.....

Hopefully most people are following sephiroth's advice above and reserving judgement with cautious optimism....

But in anycase, from what I've seen so far there doesn't really seem to be any genuine huge surprises here. So I'd expect that most people who bemoan the loss of FoM and the addition of friction to trade will still moan about how it's worse than what the UK had before on those fronts. And for those who wanted to see ECJ lose all jurisdiction, and the UK gain more flexibility in future policy direction, it will celebrated it as a win. They both would be justified in those judgements based on their preferences, but as was always the case, people place different emphasis on different things.

So with regards to the public mood (while it is a significant achievement to see almost any deal negotiated within 11 months) I doubt it will do much to change anyone's perceptions of the risks and opportunities, or the presence of tangible benefits, or lack thereof.....

[Sephiroth]

If I was a leaver, I would be worried about the deal specifically because Johnson has ensured it will get no scrutiny. And as history show us, his idea of getting something through without scrutiny but full of praise tends to backfire

Interesting to see JPMorgan analysis today see it as problematic for the UK

But this week is the high tide for leavers - they should enjoy it while they can. Pressure for more alignment will start to come relatively soon as the additional frictions mount and aggravate travellers and business. Any new-found "freedoms" are likely to be in name only

"so far, in the popular print and broadcast press" - I'm going to guess you mean the garbage UK press, the ones that played such a part in getting us here? Of course they begged up May for a while too didn't they. And Johnson's oven ready deal before he threatened to break international law

[TheCat]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> If I was a leaver, I would be worried about the

> deal specifically because Johnson has ensured it

> will get no scrutiny. And as history show us, his

> idea of getting something through without scrutiny

> but full of praise tends to backfire

>

> Interesting to see JPMorgan analysis today see it

> as problematic for the UK

>

> But this week is the high tide for leavers - they

> should enjoy it while they can. Pressure for more

> alignment will start to come relatively soon as

> the additional frictions mount and aggravate

> travellers and business. Any new-found "freedoms"

> are likely to be in name only

>

> "so far, in the popular print and broadcast press"

> - I'm going to guess you mean the garbage UK

> press, the ones that played such a part in getting

> us here? Of course they begged up May for a while

> too didn't they. And Johnson's oven ready deal

> before he threatened to break international law

So it seems you managed to reserve judgement for at least a whole 2 hours:)....

[Sephiroth]

just making general points - nothing specifically about the deal

[JohnL]

It worries me how fawning certain journalists have become - on certain twitter accounts it was like they were covering the birth of Jesus Christ.

[diable rouge]

Spoiler alert: They couldn't find 3 wise men...

[Sephiroth]

I mean, regardless of the deal, anyone who watched the Johnson presser saw the usual cavalcade of lies and bluster

If we can't call that out then what's the point?

[Trinnydad]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> just making general points - nothing specifically

> about the deal

Let's hope Remainers consider becoming un-stuck from the same old groove. It's like an old cracked 78rpm. Stuck in the same negative conversation since 2016 propagating "economic doom and gloom" theories based on fear.

It's now a new situation. The positive thinkers will grasp the opportunities and thrive.

"Project Fear" is dead. Get over it.

[Sephiroth]

Brexit IS project fear. Fear of a union of 28 countries and banging on about lack of sovereignty

The worst immediate disruption has been avoided by a deal. But U.K. is still worse off in almost every way than it was

[diable rouge]

Trinnydad Wrote:

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> Sephiroth Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > just making general points - nothing

> specifically

> > about the deal

>

> Let's hope Remainers consider becoming un-stuck

> from the same old groove. It's like an old cracked

> 78rpm. Stuck in the same negative conversation

> since 2016 propagating "economic doom and gloom"

> theories based on fear.

So, let me get this right, it was ok for Eurosceptics to bang on about the EU for 40 years prior to 2016, but anti-Brexiters now have to keep schtum. How very Brexit...

[Trinnydad]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> Brexit IS project fear. Fear of a union of 28

> countries and banging on about lack of sovereignty

It was the Remoaners were the ones that created and perpetuated project fear. They couldn't face the prospect of discarding the illusionary EU comfort blanket. A blanket that cost billions every year whilst maintaining a privileged and corrupt bureaucratic elite in Brussels.

>

>

> The worst immediate disruption has been avoided by

> a deal. But U.K. is still worse off in almost

> every way than it was.

Same old groove again. Get over it. Think of the opportunities such as free ports and freedom to make sweet tax deals to attract multi-nationals.

One opportunity to consider is making a deal with Hyundai, Kia and Toyota to set up factories that use 100% LOCAL CONTENT and so reduce the volume of VWs BMWs and Mercedes that have no UK content. Why give jobs to the Germans?

Apart from that, there is the point that the UK arguably was the one country that followed all the EU rules diligently and usually implemented them earlier than all the others. One such example was allocating the printing of UK passports which had to go out to EU wide tender.

We will be better off being free to choose and prioritise.