Do we stand a chance

[lameduck]

I am not a pessimist at all.

Since March, My social life has ceased, Dont go anywhere.

Hardly see my family, Go out late for a walk with my husband,

Hardly anyone is social distancing, pubs people were sitting

1 ft apart back to back [ only takes one sneeze].

Runners, run past me less than a metre, I cannot hear them coming, puffing panting.

We have gone into another lockdown, Arrests in Trafalger sq

Mums all congregating round local school no distancing. still no enforcement of masks in shops.

They will let us out for xmas, They will all go mad, So maybe another lockdown in Jan/feb.

Spoke to friend who said, Why are we wrecking our economy, Oldies of 85 are on their way out.

Do we stand a chance?

[Penguin68]

Hardly anyone is social distancing, pubs people were sitting

1 ft apart back to back [ only takes one sneeze].

Actually (1) sneezing isn't particularly a Covid symptom - and the incidence of infection in Southwark is quite low and coming down and (2) evidence suggests that infections indoors are most likely following prolonged conversation contact - 30 minutes or more

Runners, run past me less than a metre, I cannot hear them coming, puffing panting.

Infection outdoors is far less likely - and see above about length of contact required.

Clearly it is possible to contract Covid through no contact with others at all - but through transfer from surfaces - hence the handwashing mantra - although current views are that this is not as common a vector as first feared. But we are living in an area of low infection rates, and so long as you don't indulge in long conversations indoors your risks are, frankly, slight.

Annoyingly it seems that the Tier 3 restrictions were beginning to work - so maybe this lockdown, effectively forced on the government by terribly warnings from Sage about 4000 deaths and the collapse of the NHS wasn't necesssary.

[Shaggy]

Thanks Penguin 68. Very sensible IMHO.

Penguin68 Wrote:

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> Hardly anyone is social distancing, pubs people

> were sitting

> 1 ft apart back to back [ only takes one sneeze].

>

> Actually (1) sneezing isn't particularly a Covid

> symptom - and the incidence of infection in

> Southwark is quite low and coming down and (2)

> evidence suggests that infections indoors are most

> likely following prolonged conversation contact -

> 30 minutes or more

>

> Runners, run past me less than a metre, I cannot

> hear them coming, puffing panting.

>

> Infection outdoors is far less likely - and see

> above about length of contact required.

>

> Clearly it is possible to contract Covid through

> no contact with others at all - but through

> transfer from surfaces - hence the handwashing

> mantra - although current views are that this is

> not as common a vector as first feared. But we are

> living in an area of low infection rates, and so

> long as you don't indulge in long conversations

> indoors your risks are, frankly, slight.

>

> Annoyingly it seems that the Tier 3 restrictions

> were beginning to work - so maybe this lockdown,

> effectively forced on the government by terribly

> warnings from Sage about 4000 deaths and the

> collapse of the NHS wasn't necesssary.

[AylwardS]

Penguin68 sensible response to common misunderstandings. The OP is right though some people are not following the basics and if we get complacent before there?s a vaccine then at the moment the only tool available is lockdown / tougher restrictions.

It?s been clear for a while that although the over 70?s have more serious illness should they catch it they are not the only ones affected and cases are climbing in all age ranges, if at different rates. Long Covid is still an unknown but should be a concern for those younger who catch it but it?s such an unknown that until you know someone who?s experienced it or seen someone wiped out by glandular fever which is the nearest I know of it will be so outside people?s experience it won?t be expected.

Yes it was starting to look like Tier 3 measures where working but there wasn?t time to see if that was the case and for the NHS to be able to cope if cases carried on rising. Waiting just a few weeks could have taken us past capacity the virus was increasing so fast.

When masks first came in the government left wearing them to common sense. Some did / some didn?t as you?d expect. We all judge risk differently. Laws were brought in just as they were for wearing seatbelts and drink driving. Laws still get broken but enough follow them to avoid the worst consequences for many.

Hopefully lockdown will bring the rise in cases down and nowhere will need to go into Tier 3 when tiered restrictions return. Having seen what can happen people will do the minimum so some families can meet for Christmas - not expecting to be able to visit my parents in Greater Manchester but maybe they can see my sister also in Greater Manchester - and businesses can reopen.

The virus isn?t going away any time soon but if we work together we can keep it down and have a new normal until there are some options available other than do nothing with an overwhelmed NHS, deaths and the economic impact or be in an extended lockdown.

Not something anyone would choose but it?s pretty clear all over the world that there are limited actions that can be taken to have an impact on the virus. I wish I was wrong but for all ?the government had got it wrong? here / France / Italy ..... There is no magic bullet.

In answer to the OP?s post I think we have a chance but it?s not going to be comfortable.

Stay safe.

[No40]

Lameduck, I sympathise. We've just got to keep going, keep ourselves busy and not look too far ahead. It's a good opportunity to try a new hobby, especially something creative or involving learning so we'll have something to show for it at the end.

I get what other people are saying, but maybe if you're in a vulnerable group it makes you more anxious and therefore more sensitive to what you see going on around you. The 2m rule was based on people standing and walking normally, and a runner breathing hard through their mouth with no mask leaves a much broader 'wake', much like the difference between a car going at 20mph and one at 40mph. I'm often passed very close from behind, and I've seen them scattering droplets of sweat, coughing, or spitting. If you're at risk, that's quite frightening. I've spent 9 months walking in the road to get out of the way of fit, healthy people who won't make space for others.

Sneezing may not be listed as one of the top three symptoms, but if people have it (which they might not be aware of) and sneeze or cough in the normal way without covering their mouth they could project germs over a longer distance.

[Pugwash]

Had an out patient appointment at Kings yesterday and although people booking into the clinic were wearing masks, nurses were asking them to change from cloth masks to the blue/white disposable masks - no explanation given.

[Sue]

Pugwash Wrote:

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> Had an out patient appointment at Kings yesterday

> and although people booking into the clinic were

> wearing masks, nurses were asking them to change

> from cloth masks to the blue/white disposable

> masks - no explanation given.

That's been going on for a while.

I imagine the reason is that if you don't wash your cloth mask frequently it is pretty useless at doing the job it's supposed to do, because it could hold the virus (I don't know the science of it)

They can be sure that a disposable mask is clean.

[Cyclemonkey]

Cloth ones have different levels of effectivness depending on how they are made and what they are made of. Whereas the paper surgical ones are a known quantity as hospitals have used them for years.

[Blah Blah]

Sue Wrote:

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> They can be sure that a disposable mask is clean.

It is exactly this. It is the only way hospitals can be sure that the masks people are wearing are clean. In reality, you have to change a mask several times a days for it to remain an effective barrier. Putting the same mask on and off all day adds to the contamination risks. Doing that for several days without washing the face covering speaks for itself.