More reliable weather forecasts

[malumbu]

Forecasting the weather is difficult as it is dependent on numerous natural and man-made phenomena. It is the reason that supercomputers were invented. The better the model and the higher quality the data, the more reliable (in terms of probability) forecasts become.

The Met Office has one of the best services in the world. It is right that this executive government agency is run more commercially but I never understood why the national broadcaster had to go to a tendering exercise. The result is poorer quality forecasts from the Meteo group.

So either switch to ITV or go the Met Office direct: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

I'm expecting that this is one of the most boring threads on the EDF and to get no posts.

[Sue]

On the contrary, it's riveting and I'm bored enough to post.

I always use the Met Office app anyway.

Not that that's always particularly accurate.

[Nigello]

I use the BBC app which lists E Dulwich if you tap it in and I find it very reliable. (BTW The hour shown means there is x% of rain/snow etc until the end of that hour, not from it.)

[legalalien]

I used to flat with a weather forecaster in another country - he set up a business (run out of our ground floor) in competition with the Met Office equivalent, based on their data feed and supplementing it with info from a network of people on the ground (farmers, amateur meteorologists etc) who used to phone our flat with info late at night and into the early hours. He always told me that although the met office model had much more data than previously, it still wasn't over a long enough period, and there was much to be said for people who knew their environment. He won the contract for the equivalent of radio 4 and was wildly successful (the met office continued to supply tv).

So whether or not the change to someone else has worked in this case, maybe weather is another area where there is not just a simple, one version of "the science"? I've used dark sky until recently, it seems to have got less accurate since being adopted by apple.

[TheCat]

I blame Brexit,Trump,fireworks being set off an antisocial times, local road closures which create traffic chaos and men skipping on the pavement....

But back to the topic at hand....at the risk of generalizing...the British do get off on talking about the weather and weather forecasting. Smugly as its said, growing up in Australia, we never really worried too much about the weather forecast, as invariably it was 'fine'....but the resident Brit in my house (Mrs Cat) usually checks the weather 3 times before breakfast....

[malumbu]

Agreed Cat on the first sentence. Actually I am having a good chuckle.

But as the second paragraph this is one of the things that binds us together in the UK - little else at the moment.

Sue, forecasting is a probability not an accurate prediction. Nigello, do compare the two. Beeb was useless today - forecast of occasional rain. Met Office gave 10% or less likelihood. I'm doing some work outside. Met Office won yesterday too. Often they are similar but generally Met Office better.

Wow, I'm now optimistic that this thread will overtake the one on bus travel before the freedom pass is valid.

[sjsl]

Indeed, I have found it a most entertaining and informative thread so far. On a related topic, I like to check out cloud of the month https://cloudappreciationsociety.org/cloud-of-the-month/

[seenbeen]

I always check the jetstream forecast in the summer as I go camping and it is very accurate as if the jetstream is north of the UK we get fine dry weather

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

Other than that it's the barometer for me

[malumbu]

Jet stream good, barometer good.

BBC predicts high likelihood of rain over the next two hours, Met Office 5%. Met Office wins.