Vaccine wars

[JohnL]

j.a. Wrote:

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> The EU has f?ed up straight out of the gate, no

> question, but to say this answers everything isn?t

> correct.

They have but the definition of failure is repeating the same actions and expecting a different result - so we'll see.

[Hamletter]

JohnL Wrote:

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> So if/when a second vaccine is required due to a

> mutation - who has the orders in first EU, UK or

> USA.

>

Going forward, competition to get orders in for a second generation vaccine will be less intense because you can bet every advance nation is investing deeply in vaccine production capacity so as not to be caught short next time.

https://www.vmicuk.com/vmic-facility

One major consideration is the sheer number of specialist items/products/chemicals/ etc that are required to produce a vaccine. Hence the marginal cost per vaccine will increase significantly. As this new capacity comes on stream the one business that will feel the pain is Serum Institute of India currently the largest manufacturer in the world.

The future area of competition will be for these new manufacturing plants to negotiate licences from the research labs that produce the most efficacious vaccines. Developing an efficacious vaccine is massively difficult and this was borne out by the failure of the Sanofi candidate.

[TheCat]

Hamletter Wrote:

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>

> The future area of competition will be for these

> new manufacturing plants to negotiate licences

> from the research labs that produce the most

> efficacious vaccines.

I wonder how many of the big pharma companies will now choose to invest in new manufacturing capacity within the EU....

[JohnL]

Ireland seems to continue attracting drugs and tech companies - strangely (or maybe more cleverly not) we don't here much about them in the current vaccine war.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-economy-grew-faster-than-china-thanks-to-big-tech-pharma-11614951060

[????]

Well that?s because Ireland, like Belgium, is opposed to any vaccine war as they realise what the long term effect will be on inward investment into the republic. Got to say, all this vaccine stuff is exposing all the things that the long term critics of the EU said - inefficiency, unaccountability, over bureaucratic and dancing to the tune of the French and Germans. I certainly feel less bad about our decision to leave than I did a year ago.

[Blah Blah]

The EU has to change, there is no question about that, and a lot of people who voted for remain did so because they put trade first and believed that change around the rest can come from within.

The EU essentially has had three huge shocks to its foundations over last fifteen years. First was the 2008 financial crash, and having to bail out EU economies. The second was the Syrian war and the ensuing refugee crisis, and now a global pandemic. All three of those things challenged the given consensus. Why? Because consensus on trade is easy. Consensus on anything outside of that tests the boundaries of self interest. Those are the boundaries Farage was able to exploit to great effect of course.

I would wager that the EU are worried about falling behind in economic recovery if competitors are up and running again before them. That is the 'competition' that is driving the EU vaccine threats. The race for vaccines is a reactive one and with that comes inevitable supply and demand issues. It will also take time to get to the required capacity. Does it really matter if the EU is three months behind the UK on vaccine rollout? In principle no. But if that difference in three months is the difference between a third wave and no third wave, then the impacts are perhaps a bit more considerable.

My personal opinion is that the EU should focus less on where the UK are, and figure out where they can place orders that can be met for their own needs.

[Hamletter]

Russia and China are just gagging to get vaccine orders from Brussels.

May not happen that way as that would be a massive admission of failure by the EU. More likely individual nations will follow Hungary and Slovakia's lead and buy direct from Moscow and they will end up paying around $10 per jab for Sputnik ( or $29 for Sinovac) as against $3 for the AstraZeneca.

Despite knowing AZ were honour bound to supply "at cost", the Commission wasted weeks haggling for a lower price. It beggars belief.

[JohnL]

I think Boris's "greed" remarks might have been aimed at Tory MPs to prepare them that we may have to share more available vaccines with the EU once we have done groups 1-9.

or he might just have been talking rubbish :)

[TheCat]

People do love to make storms in teacups don't they. I mean FFS....he's saying capitalism helped accelerate the response to Covid...Which would be relatively dull comment on its own.

The greed reference is clearly a clumsy call back to Michael Douglas in Wall Street....awkward? Yes. Worth getting your knickers in a twist over? Not so much

Nothing to see here...move along.....

[Hamletter]

JohnL Wrote:

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> I think Boris's "greed" remarks might have been

> aimed at Tory MPs to prepare them that we may have

> to share more available vaccines with the EU once

> we have done groups 1-9.

>

> or he might just have been talking rubbish :)

Please keep this thread on "wars" path track. Boris surely merits his own thread.

[Hamletter]

Brussels opens yet another front in the ongoing war by implying that 29M doses "found" in Italy was a stash destined for the UK.

The truth is that this vaccine was made in Holland by AZ and transported in bulk to Italy for filling into vials. AZ have also confirmed that these doses were due for delivery to the EU and countries benefitting under the Covax scheme.

More significantly, these Dutch produced vaccines have yet to be approved by the EU Medicines Agency

Thankfully, the UK can still claim the moral high ground whilst Brussels keeps on digging that hole.

UvdL's days are definitely numbered.

[TheCat]

I'm no lawyer....but if true, further ammunition that this whole 'war' is just the EU punishing AstraZeneca and the UK as cover for its poor contracting....

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

[JohnL]

Hamletter Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I think Boris's "greed" remarks might have been

> > aimed at Tory MPs to prepare them that we may

> have

> > to share more available vaccines with the EU

> once

> > we have done groups 1-9.

> >

> > or he might just have been talking rubbish :)

>

> Please keep this thread on "wars" path track.

> Boris surely merits his own thread.

Actually I think I was right - peace has broken out and Boris was possibly pre-empting Daily Express headlines as we (as the winners previously) will have to help the EU with it's supplies in reality.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-eu-covid-vaccine-dispute-deal-b926100.html

He has no choice really as not to help out would see him as a heartless PM so the agreement will be that more of the supplies made in the EU will stay there at a guess.

[diable rouge]

Your periodic reminder that Hamletter and Dulwich Dyson are the same poster, as well as other noms de plume..

[Blah Blah]

TheCat Wrote:

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> People do love to make storms in teacups don't they. I mean FFS....he's saying capitalism helped accelerate the response to Covid...Which would be relatively dull comment on its own.

>

> The greed reference is clearly a clumsy call back to Michael Douglas in Wall Street....awkward? Yes. Worth getting your knickers in a twist over? Not so much

>

> Nothing to see here...move along.....

I agree with you here. Boris is a liberal free marketeer. So he believes that free market competition drives progress (whilst not thinking it is the be all that his libertarian friends do). The 'greed is good' mantra is exactly what I think he was referencing. Now greed isn't always good as we all know, but there are occasions where it serves a purpose. His point was that capitalism is the reason why there was a race to develop vaccines, and that race is precisely why we have at least five now in play. There will be others that emerge too. Big pharma is not a charity. Pandemics present an opportunity for income beyond their wildest dreams. Boris was just being honest about it.

[Blah Blah]

TheCat Wrote:

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> I'm no lawyer....but if true, further ammunition that this whole 'war' is just the EU punishing AstraZeneca and the UK as cover for its poor contracting....

>

> https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-difference s-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

I think the dynamics here are bizarre to say the least. The EU need to make the orders they need to make, and AZ needs to honour them. And if AZ can not meet demand, then order from suppliers of other vaccines.

[j.a.]

Dulwich Dyson Wrote:

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> @diable rouge

>

> Paranoid or what?

DB is correct though. Not sure why you?d sock puppet you?re own thread but whatever makes you happy.

[j.a.]

Dulwich Dyson Wrote:

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> @diable rouge

>

> Paranoid or what?

DB is correct though. Not sure why you?d sock puppet you?re own thread but whatever makes you happy.

[????]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The EU has to change, there is no question about

> that, and a lot of people who voted for remain did

> so because they put trade first and believed that

> change around the rest can come from within.

>

> The EU essentially has had three huge shocks to

> its foundations over last fifteen years. First was

> the 2008 financial crash, and having to bail out

> EU economies. The second was the Syrian war and

> the ensuing refugee crisis, and now a global

> pandemic. All three of those things challenged the

> given consensus. Why? Because consensus on trade

> is easy. Consensus on anything outside of that

> tests the boundaries of self interest. Those are

> the boundaries Farage was able to exploit to great

> effect of course.

>

>

Er, I think you?ll find Brexit was as bigger shock to the EU as all of these! A bizarre omission

[????]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The EU has to change, there is no question about

> that, and a lot of people who voted for remain did

> so because they put trade first and believed that

> change around the rest can come from within.

>

> The EU essentially has had three huge shocks to

> its foundations over last fifteen years. First was

> the 2008 financial crash, and having to bail out

> EU economies. The second was the Syrian war and

> the ensuing refugee crisis, and now a global

> pandemic. All three of those things challenged the

> given consensus. Why? Because consensus on trade

> is easy. Consensus on anything outside of that

> tests the boundaries of self interest. Those are

> the boundaries Farage was able to exploit to great

> effect of course.

>

>

Er, I think you?ll find Brexit was as bigger shock to the EU as all of these! A bizarre omission

[diable rouge]

Dulwich Dyson Wrote:

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> @diable rouge

>

> Paranoid or what?

Devious, underhanded, duplicitous or what?

That's quite some North Korean Dulwich bot farm you've got going there...

[diable rouge]

Dulwich Dyson Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> @diable rouge

>

> Paranoid or what?

Devious, underhanded, duplicitous or what?

That's quite some North Korean Dulwich bot farm you've got going there...

[diable rouge]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> Big pharma is not a charity.

> Pandemics present an opportunity for income beyond

> their wildest dreams. Boris was just being honest

> about it.

AZ is far more akin to a 'Socialist' vaccine than a 'Capitalist' one.

Non-profit making and was given large amounts of Gov money/investment.

Gordon Gecko's braces would be twanging off in disgust...

[diable rouge]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Big pharma is not a charity.

> Pandemics present an opportunity for income beyond

> their wildest dreams. Boris was just being honest

> about it.

AZ is far more akin to a 'Socialist' vaccine than a 'Capitalist' one.

Non-profit making and was given large amounts of Gov money/investment.

Gordon Gecko's braces would be twanging off in disgust...

[Blah Blah]

???? Wrote:

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> Er, I think you?ll find Brexit was as bigger shock

> to the EU as all of these! A bizarre omission

I disagree. The other three things are externally imposed crisis and have high levels of unpredictability within them, because of numerous factors beyond EU control. Brexit on the other hand is an internal change between 1 nation and the EU. The EU won't be brought down by that. The difference should be clear.