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And presumably once they are released, it will move back into our community again, where it will be counted again. So unless we propose to lock huge amounts of people up indefinitely, I don't see how prison can affect the long term stats on violence in society.
Homicide statistics do include crimes in prison (of course). However I would guess that the estimated murders of e.g. Shipman have not been fully counted in, as they were not all confirmed through the courts. The actions of one madman however (or psycho/ sociopath) should not be read-in to determine true changes in levels of violence (neither should acts of terrorism where very large numbers (i.e. 9/11 or 7/7) are murdered by one or two individuals (9/11) or 4 (7/7).

LadyD, Pinker doesn't claim this is the only reason for the decline, far from it, but it is an undeniable factor.


Mass incarceration has a couple of obvious draw backs. Firstly once the most violent individuals are locked up imprisoning more reaches a point of diminishing returns as each new prisoner is less and less dangerous. Secondly, people tend to get less violent as they get older, keeping them locked up beyond a certain point won't achieve much.


There is then an optimum level of incarceration which is difficult to achieve when a politician who suggests reducing prison numbers is accused of being soft on crime. The argument can be won however and I think it probably has in this country when even Tory justice ministers (well Ken Clarke anyway) say numbers are too high.


Oh and yes, the argument is that all forms of violence are in decline, including slips in the shower.

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