Falling rolls at Southwark primaries - council strategy to address

[legalalien]

Hi all

I’ve previously posted council info about falling primary school rolls in London, reduction in admission numbers at some schools and the difficult financial situation some schools are finding themselves in as a result, in specific threads about St Francesca Cabrini (now closing) and DKH.

The council has now produced an overall strategy paper on the subject which is going to Cabinet on 6 December - its online here:

https://moderngov.southwark.gov.uk/documents/s110485/Report%20Place%20planning%20Across%20Southwarks%20Primary%20Schools%20A%20strategy%20for%20future-proofing%20quality%20an.pdf

(Appendix - which has the details of the steps in implementing the strategy - but no information about individual schools - at https://moderngov.southwark.gov.uk/documents/s110486/Appendix%201%20Place%20planning%20across%20Southwarks%20Primary%20Schools%20A%20strategy%20for%20future-%20proofing%20quali.pdf)

In short there is a significant oversupply of places across the borough -around 22%- resulting in a need to remove around 19-25 forms of entry. Because school funding follows the pupil, this is sadly going to mean a combination of reduced admissions, amalgamations and some school closures.

Before everyone panics about local schools, it’s important to note that past reports have indicated that schools in this area are generally well-subscribed compared with other parts of the borough, where many of the problems lie. However, there was a reduction in admissions at Dog Kennel Hill last year, and there was also some proposals around Ivydale that I think were reversed following councillor intervention.

The timeline for implementing the new strategy is

“ Cabinet agreement of strategy (December 2022), Schools informed of recommendations (March 2023), Informal consultation (June/July 2023), Statutory consultation (September 2023), Final Cabinet decision (July 2024).”

I’m being longwinded, the point I really wanted to make was that against this background, when considering the primary school you wish to send your child to in Sept 2023 I think it’s worth doing a little due diligence on its financial situation if the school is a council-run school (the situation is different for academies as the council can’t control academy intakes / decide that they should close), and also keep an eye out for any council proposals.

You can find some financial info about schools here:

https://schools-financial-benchmarking.service.gov.uk/

It’s a very difficult situation for the council given they’re supposed to be responsible for the overall picture but seem to have very limited control over the academies. Add to that, there’s a risk, identified in the report, that some schools threatened with closure may opt to become academies to avoid closure.

It sounds as though this is going to be a very stressful time for governors and staff at some schools, hopefully this can all happen as smoothly as possible.

[legalalien]

Just in case anyone is interested- there’s a further report on falling school rolls and the council’s plans to address them on the agenda for an upcoming scrutiny commission meeting, which is worth a read, it outlines the scale of the problem (potentially greater than flagged in the planning report linked above) and the implications for school finances (for example, indicates that a class size number of around 27 is the break even point and below 25 starts to be unfeasible.). Falling birth rates and unaffordability of housing seem to be key drivers.

https://moderngov.southwark.gov.uk/documents/s111761/Document%20Keeping%20Education%20Strong%20-%20Strategy%20for%20future%20proofing%20primary%20schools%20and%20protecting%20t.pdf

Information about particular schools should filter through in the next couple of months. The council can only take steps to close/ amalgamate non- academy schools, and as noted above I suspect most of those at risk are in more northerly parts of the borough.