Suspicious activity on Court Lane, increasing crime from Southwark’s LTN

[SpringTime]

I've not read every post in the thread but does anyone think crime all over the country might have something to do with fourteen years of Dickensian madness - or is it all because of some boxes in the Village...

Edited October 8, 2024 by SpringTime

[Rockets]

Springtime - we will never know but what we can say is that in Dulwich Village crime is increasing and the types of crime that are behind the rise are the types of crime where criminals prey on individuals and don't want a lot of people around to interfere.

 

Edited October 8, 2024 by Rockets

[SpringTime]

It's "prey."

It's got nothing to do with boxes. Dulwich Village is no exception and we all need pay our way. Crime will then go down x

[Rockets]

4 minutes ago, SpringTime said:

It's "prey."

It is indeed and duly corrected.

What do you mean we all need to pay our way - don't we do that already?

What else can be done to target the crime - do people think the police and council are currently doing enough? Parts of Dulwich are becoming crime hotspots yet nothing ever seems to be done.

Edited October 8, 2024 by Rockets

[alice]

It’s so strange that statistics gathered in that Dulwich village area are at odds with what you’re saying. Is it that old fear of crime thing? 

[Penguin68]

There are in fact two collecting bodies for crime statistics, the police (who record only what is reported to them) and a government survey of the general population, asking them of their recent experience of crime.

Generally, and not surprisingly, higher figures come from this survey as crime can go unreported when there is little or no material gain to be had from reporting it, (e.g. damage or loss below a threshold for insurance pay out) and no anticipation that the police will act if it is reported. Virtually all shoplifting falls into this category. 

[SpringTime]

4 hours ago, Rockets said:

It is indeed and duly corrected.

What do you mean we all need to pay our way - don't we do that already?

What else can be done to target the crime - do people think the police and council are currently doing enough? Parts of Dulwich are becoming crime hotspots yet nothing ever seems to be done.

Pay up or reap what you sow.

In Finland if you're fined for speeding you pay up according to what you owe depending on your wages. Good.

Of course the police and council aren't doing enough. Despite the frustrating inefficiency there's absolutely no way they can cope. Oliver and Olivia Twist are being delivered in increasing delinquency. It won't stop until you dig in. We pay balls-all tax and it's got to change.

As a massive Francophile I've learned that from a cheap, ropey and yet incredibly rich nation, by raising tax you can turn half of your nation into something that looks and runs like Switzerland. Oh, and they pay more tax, but are paid more, and work less. 

Go back to your Daily Express x

Edited October 8, 2024 by SpringTime

[Rockets]

What has the Daily Express got to do with it? Are you saying this because you think this thread has some scare story element to it (a la the Express).

 

The fact remains crime is going up in the Dulwich Village ward and paying more taxes or being more French isn't going to slow the rate of increase any time soon.

[jazzer]

what's France got a do with it

[Rockets]

Yeah that bit confused me too because the bits of France I go to are very much not like Switzerland......

[malumbu]

The Daily Express comment was made, I expect, because some of the posts come over a little reactionary.

But some of the discussion is incredibly simplistic, blaming for example a possible increase in some crimes due to improved street lighting and less vehicles.

It's all rather complex, both the crime stats but also the factors behind it.

Crims are often clever so and so's switching to wherever money can be made the easiest way, with the least chance of being caught. Many have switched to online/ID crime.

There is the organised vs casual, local, national and international.  Casual could be naughty youth, addicts, or those just desperate for money/clothes/food.

Planned vs opportunist - ie it is unlocked so I will nick it, example being scrappies nicking stuff from my garden.

Cost of living, impact of Covid, the general feel bad factor as the world goes to war, exacerbated by climate change meaning mass movement of people, erosion of social care, mental health support, community groups, as pointed out under 14 years of Tory government and the unnecessary austerity

Full and failing prison system

Broken families and the like

Lack of, or perceived lack of, career opportunities

The general vulnerability of individuals band communities left behind, leading to things such as county lines

The demand for illegal drugs including the professional classes

Demand for stolen goods, including no doubt at times the professional classes.

That's just off the top of my head, I'm no expert and have no easy solutions. 

 

 

[first mate]

Malumbu said: "But some of the discussion is incredibly simplistic, blaming for example a possible increase in some crimes due to improved street lighting and less vehicles."

 

But it was you that first suggested a relationship between street lighting and crime?!

 

On 06/10/2024 at 23:31, malumbu said:

Criminals prefer well lit streets too.  I expect that Southwark has turned up the brightness of the street lights which has increased crime.  

Here you are, the very first response to the OP.

[hfoster]

Maybe the crims are picking the LTNs because that's where the posh houses are!

[Earl Aelfheah]

48 minutes ago, hfoster said:

Maybe the crims are picking the LTNs because that's where the posh houses are!

There's no evidence that Crime is getting higher inside the LTN. The specific reported crime stats for Calton Avenue and environs (although it's an incredibly small sample area) show crime falling.

Centred on postcode SE21 7DG crime rates are as follows:

• 2020: 100
• 2021: 75.9
• 2022: 66.9
• 2023: 50.8

(source: 'crystal roof' website, which analyses police reported crime data by postcode).

...as I say, I'm slightly wary of quoting crime stats for such a small area, and understand that there is a difference between crime and reported crime. But in so far as we have any objective data, it suggests crime has fallen, not risen. 

Edited October 9, 2024 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

It is an incredibly small sample size as one postcode averages about 15 houses - one street could be 4 or 5 different postcodes maybe more? Can you search for multiple postcodes on that site?

As far as I am aware there is no way to search multiple postcodes on the police website and they only offer you the ward detail and at the ward level crime is increasing. You can do a summary of monthly crime and which part of the ward it is being "reported" but I have no idea how accurate that is but there seem to be two distinct epi-centres for crime in the ward - around Herne Hill station and the centre of Dulwich Village (it fluctuates month to month but you can see the epi-centres).

https://www.police.uk/pu/your-area/metropolitan-police-service/dulwich-village/?yourlocalpolicingteam=about-us&tab=crimemap

There are so many factors involved in why a crime happens in one area or another (I am amazed how many people wander down roads where there is a known phone snatch problem typing away on their phones) but the upward trends are worrying - especially the robbery from a person (as often knives are involved) as these can be hugely traumatic for the victim.

It is clear that criminals are targeting the Dulwich Village area and certain types of crime are rising and the overall picture for the ward is not good either.

 

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

Yes I agree with that. As I've said, the smaller the area you focus on, the smaller the sample, the less reliable the conclusions. But in so far as we have any objective data, it suggests crime has fallen in the LTN, not risen as stated rather definitively in the thread's title (with zero supporting evidence). 

Edited October 9, 2024 by Earl Aelfheah

[Cyclemonkey]

There is probably nicer stuff to steal on Court Lane.  Have you seen the house prices?

[Earl Aelfheah]

For Court Lane (Centred on SE21 7DR) crime rates are as follows:

2019: 91.7
2020: 71.6
2021: 55.5
2022: 98.7
2023: 89.9

Again, small numbers, so not sure it's really significant one way or the other. Quite a big drop in 2021 (lockdown?), but overall, the rates seem pretty stable / unchanged.

In summary, available data on reported crime provides no evidence of the LTN having increased crime. If anything (caveated as above) it shows a drop in Calton Avenue and no real change in Court Lane. 

Edited October 9, 2024 by Earl Aelfheah

[first mate]

Only the reported data and nothing yet for this year. Glad you are clear that an apparent reduction does not necessarily show the true picture- and, of course, we also have a number of people who live in the area saying that crime has gone up. In conclusion, we don't yet know.

[Earl Aelfheah]

1 hour ago, Rockets said:

It is an incredibly small sample size as one postcode averages about 15 houses - one street could be 4 or 5 different postcodes maybe more? Can you search for multiple postcodes on that site?

I think it covers the postcode and a 0.25 mile radius surrounding it (it's a little unclear).

25 minutes ago, first mate said:

Only the reported data and nothing yet for this year. Glad you are clear that an apparent reduction does not necessarily show the true picture- and, of course, we also have a number of people who live in the area saying that crime has gone up. In conclusion, we don't yet know.

The LTN has been in for four years and there is no evidence of a rise in crime (possibly the data is more suggestive of a fall). As far as detailed research into the impact of LTNs on crime more generally (not Dulwich specific), that concludes they tend to reduce crime.

In conclusion, we can't say anything definitively, but the available evidence does not support the claim of "increasing crime from Southwark’s LTN". If anything it suggests the opposite.

Edited October 9, 2024 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

I agree, there are too many intangibles at play to be able to say what has, or hasn't created, the increase in crime in the whole ward.

I do think there is a debate to be had whether quieter streets with fewer cars mean that certain types of crime are easier to commit and allow targeting of victims. The current modus operandi of crash for cash only really works on quieter streets and it is no coincidence that areas around the DV LTN are being targeted by criminals. 

On phone snatches and knifepoint robberies the argument could be made that because there are more people walking around the quieter streets then that part explains the rise in crimes of that nature (which aren't happening on Dulwich Square but on the surrounding streets.

Overall, in the Dulwich Village ward, crime is on the way up, is the highest it has been in the three years of monitoring available on the police website, and it is being driven by certain types of crime - I don't really care what the cause is but what the solution is because it is Dulwich residents (all of our neighbours) who are often on the receiving end of what can be terrifying encounters that can have lasting impact.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

On 09/10/2024 at 08:10, Earl Aelfheah said:

Centred on postcode SE21 7DG crime rates are as follows:

• 2020: 100
• 2021: 75.9
• 2022: 66.9
• 2023: 50.8

(source: 'crystal roof' website, which analyses police reported crime data by postcode).

... understand that there is a difference between crime and reported crime. 

Yeah, well, you can prove anything with facts, can't you?

The difference between the volume of crime identified by police and the British Crime Survey is irrelevant here for two reasons: first, because what we're interested in is the relative change in either of those rates (is it going up, down or nowhere?) and not the absolute level. And second because the types of crime the OP is claiming to have increased significantly is the type of crime that DOES get reported to and recorded by police...vehicles have unique identifiers and insurers that won't pay out without a crime number.

This is 3 pages dissecting a load of toss vomited up by the OP without any evidence.