The newly landscaped Dulwich Square

[Earl Aelfheah]

This is just noise. You have provided no evidence of your claim that the filter on calton avenue (introduced more than 5 years ago) increased crime, road danger, or pollution. It’s not true. You’re spreading fear and misinformation.

[Rockets]

I have been very clear and specific about what I have said. You try to manipulate that for your own benefit - it's what you do. I have shared more than enough data to back up the claims I have made - some of which you linked to but then tried to discredit.

As I say, time will prove I am right with my summation of what is happening with certain types of crime in Dulwich Village. Mark my words....;-)

[Earl Aelfheah]

You have provided no data to back up your claims. A rise in phone thefts in Dulwich Village does not tell you anything about the filter introduced 5 years ago. As already stated, phone thefts have risen (at an even faster rate) across most of London.

In Dulwich Village 'all crime', violent crime and burglary have fallen and average earning have increased since the filter was introduced. Applying your logic this is proof the filter has made people safer and wealthier. Which would be just as spurious a claim.

You’re being massively dishonest.

Edited Friday at 13:47 by Earl Aelfheah

[DulvilleRes]

51 minutes ago, Rockets said:

As with so much of this stuff you can say what you want but, over time, the real story will come out and I suspect that like so many examples in the past we will be right and you will be wrong!

Who is 'we' Rockets? I thought you were on a one person crusade detached from any political party or lobby group. 

[Earl Aelfheah]

18 hours ago, Rockets said:

not sure I ever mentioned car crime did I?

You've thrown so much unsubstantiated nonsense at the wall, you can't even keep track of it yourself

On 08/07/2025 at 13:16, Rockets said:

the road closures have led to an increase in crime, in particular phone thefts, vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicles and crash scams

Edited Friday at 11:40 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

2 hours ago, DulvilleRes said:

Who is 'we' Rockets? I thought you were on a one person crusade detached from any political party or lobby group. 

Ah at it again @DulvilleRes......

 

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

ou've thrown so much unsubstantiated nonsense at the wall, you can't even keep track of it yourself

On 08/07/2025 at 13:16, Rockets said:

the road closures have led to an increase in crime, in particular phone thefts, vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicles and crash scams

Edited 1 hour ago by Earl Aelfheah

But was that discussion back in July not based on the numbers from police tracking of crimes over the last three years? I think you're losing track of the conversation rather than me...

3 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

You have provided no data to back up your claims.

Except the Met police published data over the last 3 years for Dulwich Village, the StreetScan information and the recent powerpoint from the Dulwich Village Ward Met Police meeting....how much data do you require exactly....;-)

[Earl Aelfheah]

Rockets has made several false and misleading claims concerning the road filter on Calton Avenue.

On crime:

On 08/07/2025 at 13:16, Rockets said:

the road closures have led to an increase in crime, in particular phone thefts, vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicles and crash scams.

Since the filter was introduced ‘all crime’ has fallen. 

Between 2015-2018, before the filter was introduced, there was a significant increase in robbery in Dulwich, way above current levels and the London average. Since the filter was introduced it has fallen back in line with background trends.

The data on violent crime is even more stark - falling in absolute terms and massively against background trends.

Both robbery and violent crime are lower now than ‘pre-filter’.

'Theft from the person' has trended down significantly against the London average since 2021.

In short, whatever crimes may be currently seeing an uptick across Dulwich and London generally, there is no evidence at all of even a correlation between them and the introduction of the filter (let alone the laughable leap Rockets is making to some sort of causation).

On pedestrian safety and road danger:

On 13/12/2024 at 18:30, Rockets said:

I would argue with you that for pedestrians that junction is now more dangerous than it was when it was open to cars.

Crash data shows that collisions and injuries are down around the junction. Not at all surprising as heavy, fast moving vehicles have been removed.

On pollution:

On 09/03/2024 at 00:22, Rockets said:

LTNs make congestion and pollution worse and will go down in history as one of mankinds most bluntest instrument and stupid idea.

Road side pollution monitoring across the Dulwich area has shown massive and sustained decreases in pollution (specifically NO2).

There is no evidence showing that the filter has had any of the negative consequences Rockets claims. What's worse is that I don't suppose he actually believes that the filter has made crime worse, or increased road danger, or increased pollution.

[Rockets]

Ah @Earl Aelfheah resorting to taking certain quotes out of context again...what a surprise....creatures of habit and all that.

Perhaps you would be so kind as posting the rest of the quote and context from Dec 2024 in relation to when I was arguing  about the junction being more dangerous for pedestrians now?

I still stand by my comment about LTNs making congestion and pollution worse.

And on crime I post the below again. The London trend is a red-herring as you can see that Calton has never previously followed the London trend until, mysteriously, around 2021......right now theft from person across the whole of Dulwich is massively outpacing our neighbouring wards and, if the news about Sadiq Khan saying theft from person was trending at 13% down year on year for the same period as the charts below across London https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nqvzzq79o, it is now significantly above the London trend. 

[Earl Aelfheah]

How on earth do you think those charts show the filter on Calton Avenue has increased crime? Are you actually serious?

Absolutely embarrassing 

2 hours ago, Rockets said:

I still stand by my comment about LTNs making congestion and pollution worse.

You’re disputing the local air quality monitoring data?

[Rockets]

37 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

How on earth do you think those charts show the filter on Calton Avenue has increased crime? Are you actually serious?

Absolutely embarrassing 

Other opinions may exist.....

37 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

You’re disputing the local air quality monitoring data?

Yes. Well the role that LTN's have played in them.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Between 2020 and 2024 (for SE21 7DE), all crime fell

• Antisocial behaviour fell
• Burglary fell
• Criminal damage and arson fell
• Vehicle crime fell
• Violence and sexual offences fell
• Bicycle theft fell
• Drugs crime fell

Of course, none of this can be said to be the result of the filter; It’s correlation not causation.

But explain why:

1. You’ve ignored all crime as well as most individual crime categories, and cherry picked the one (basically mobile phone theft) that has increased?
2. Why you dismiss the steep changes in mobile phone theft across the whole of London taking place over the same period
3. You've inferred that the cause of mobile phone theft in Dulwich Village (and presumably Dulwich village alone) is caused by a road filter on Calton Avenue... How do you explain the rises in mobile phone theft outside of Dulwich, if the cause is a road filter?

The truth is, that you originally made generalised claims about rising crime, not even attempting to look at any crime data. You picked out that one crime category of (effectively) mobile phone theft having been directed to the data and having searched it for anything that might show an increase in any form of crime, whilst ignoring all others. It's your classic and repeated pattern of confirmation bias.

It’s very clear that you are not interested in what's actually going on, just in tyring to ‘prove’ that the filter has caused a problem, where there is no evidence of it at all. Those graphs don't remotely back up your claims as you well know.

Of course, you don’t care whether it’s true, or whether it causes distress, or anxiety to people living locally. You are just looking to justify your obsessive grievance over a 5 year old change to a road layout and some landscaping of a pedestrian area.

Edited Friday at 17:29 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

What are you talking about @Earl Aelfheah - not all crime fell.

 

 

25 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Why you dismiss the steep changes in mobile phone theft across the whole of London taking place over the same period

Because Calton Avenue has never followed the London trend for London-wide theft from person - until 2021. Look at the chart. 

25 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

You picked out that one crime category of (effectively) mobile phone theft having been directed to the data and having searched it for anything that might show an increase in any form of crime, whilst ignoring all others. It's your classic and repeated pattern of confirmation bias.

Nonsense. From day one I have been looking at those crimes most likely to increase with quieter streets. I have explained this to you numerous times before - you're just not listening.

25 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Of course, you don’t care whether it’s true, or whether it causes distress, or anxiety to people living locally.

Trust me, I am echoing the concerns of many of my neighbours who live in the area. People are concerned and are talking about it and local street What's App groups are full of concerned residents reporting crimes taking place in the area. Police are knocking on doors telling residents how to protect themselves from crime and distributing leaflets (and of course a PCSO was saying that some crime has increased since the LTNs went in).

 

So please, don't try to tell me how people in the area are feeling because I actually live in the area.

Edited Friday at 17:47 by Rockets

[first mate]

13 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Of course, you don’t care whether it’s true, or whether it causes distress, or anxiety to people living locally.

What an incredibly arrogant and nasty statement. The fact you feel you can state this about another poster reflects badly on you.

[Earl Aelfheah]

On 12/09/2025 at 18:35, Rockets said:

What are you talking about @Earl Aelfheah - not all crime fell.

'all crime' is a category (an average of all categories). And yes, it fell. If you actually had entered into some analysis of the stats in anything like good faith, you'd know this.

Those graphs you've posted - the first shows robbery between 2015 and 2018 rising against (and above) the London average. From 2019 onward it dropped back dramatically, falling in line with background trends. This does not show robbery increasing after the implementation of the filter. It shows the opposite. You either don't understand what you're sharing, or you're deliberately trying to mislead.

Other theft has barely moved, apart from a one off spike in 2022. And theft from the person has increased a little, but at a much slower rate than the London average.

None of these show what you claim. There is no evidence of even a correlation, let alone any causation, and as stated already, you've completely cherry picked from the data provided (you had none yourself before making sweeping claims about general crime), to try and prove something you wanted it to show. It's completely dishonest.

Edited yesterday at 14:50 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

44 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

all crime' is a category (an average of all categories). And yes, it fell. If you actually had entered into some analysis of the stats in anything like good faith, you'd know this.

Perhaps you ought to practice what you preach....what has happened to the crime categories I have been referencing....

46 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

And theft from the person has increased a little, but at a much slower rate than the London average.

"A little" - ha ha......in percentage terms what is the theft from person increase.....hmmmm? 😉 Also, when was there ever been any correlation between theft in person around the LTN and the London average? In the last 3 months, according to the Met, theft from person increased more than 180% in Dulwich Village (compared to the same period last year and against a 13% drop in the same category across London) and that is on a background of sustained growth year on year over the last 3 years figures to the highest numbers ever recorded in Dulwich Village.

So please, don't try to tell us it isn't happening. It's ludicrous for you to even offer that when the data is so compelling.

You're trying to manipulate the narrative (again) but you are absolutely 100% wrong. The data speaks volumes and those of us who live in the area know full well what is happening and are concerned by a rising crime category that often leaves the victim traumatised. Maybe you're more concerned about dismissing claims that don't suit your narrative. Well, that's your prerogative but rest assured those of us based in the area, along with the police are actually trying to do something about it rather than burying our heads in the sand. 

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

23 hours ago, Rockets said:

Perhaps you ought to practice what you preach....what has happened to the crime categories I have been referencing....

I have addressed those categories you've cherry picked. Robbery has fallen dramatically, other theft has risen slightly, and theft against the person has risen, but way slower than the London average.

Nearly all other crime categories and the 'all crime' category (which is an average across everything) have fallen.

You've gone through the data (data you didn't actually have before making your initial, false claim), looking for anything that might be said to have risen, in an attempt to justify your made up nonsense. 

Apparently back ground trends are irrelevant. Falling crime across the vast majority of categories including 'all crime' is irrelevant, and correlation equals causation (but only in so far as it's convenient to making a spurious argument)?

It's unbelievably, nakedly dishonest. 

On 13/09/2025 at 07:59, first mate said:

What an incredibly arrogant and nasty statement. The fact you feel you can state this about another poster reflects badly on you.

I think it's perfectly clear that he's being dishonest. I don't make that claim lightly. But he's make a false claim with no data, and then when presented with the data,  disregarded 90% of it, cherry picking three categories to try and prove something he's already stated as true. That is not remotely honest. Objectively. 

Even with those truly desperate tactics, he's still got it wrong. Robbery has fallen significantly from the years leading up to the filter being introduced.

...also see false claims about pollution and pedestrian injuries. 

He's deliberately trying to mislead in pursuit of a pathological, obsessive sense of grievance over a road layout change and some landscaping. It's very sad. I'm bored of having to correct this stuff, but it does potentially cause harm, spreading a false sense of fear and the perception that Dulwich and the square specifically as a dangerous area to be avoided. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

10 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Apparently back ground trends are irrelevant.

But can you show me where theft from person in Calton has followed the London average and if, as a recent BBC article claimed, London theft from person was down by 13% in the same three months as it was up by 180% in Dulwich Village, how do you try to explain thaylt one away?

12 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

It's unbelievably, nakedly dishonest. 

You think that but, to be honest, you always react aggressively when you read something you are ideologically opposed to and will argue incessantly even when the actual facts are clear for all to see...you did it every time, regular as clockwork. We are well used to it and expect it now. 

Let's see how the rising crime story gets amplified in the run-up to the local elections.

Lib Dem flyers are already flagging it as a hot topic in the village....interestingly they are also saying its time to be heard...which is always difficult given the lengths folks like you will go to try to drown out dissenting voices or anyone who dares present something you don't agree with - which seems to be pretty much anything and everything! 😉

As usual, time will tell and the truth will out - a bit like your erroneous claim that there was majority support in the consultations for the DV closures which was hilariously devious, utterly wrong and perhaps even nakedly dishonest! 😉

[Earl Aelfheah]

Whether or not there have been rises in crime in the last few months is not remotely relevant to your claim about a road filter introduced 5 years ago, causing more crime.

There is not even a correlation between crime rates and the introduction of the filter, let alone any evidence of causation (as far as there might be said to be a correlation, across all crime the association is mainly positive).

It's objectively dishonest.

Edited yesterday at 15:35 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

28 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Whether or not there have been rises in crime in the last few months is not remotely relevant to your claim about a road filter introduced 5 years ago, causing more crime.

Well there most certainly has been, and, consistently year on year growth in theft from person. In fact, according to StreetScan that growth start with 2021's annual crime figures - interesting the significantly lower theft from person crime numbers pre-2021 - can you explain why that might have been? So, no proof of causation but an interesting increase since 2021's and a problem that is getting consistently worse not better and it looks like 2025 numbers will be another record high and seemingly now even significantly bucking the claimed 13% reduction in London-wide theft from person numbers.

You can deny it all you want but there is a problem and I am glad the police and residents are aware and trying to tackle it.

[ianr]

19 hours ago, Rockets said:

But can you show me where theft from person in Calton

Just to check: what is actually meant by "in Calton"?

> was up by 180% in Dulwich Village, 

And ditto, for "Dulwich Village"

And  "London City".

Edited 5 hours ago by ianr

[Rockets]

@ianr on the SctreetScan website you can break the information down to the individual street/postcode level so the trend charts are for Calton Avenue.

The police share data for ward by ward crime levels so those figures for Dulwich Village are from their latest 3 month comparison report.

London City is, I am presuming, the all London average but I have never been able to find the breakdown of what that measures.

[Earl Aelfheah]

5 hours ago, ianr said:

Just to check: what is actually meant by "in Calton"?

> was up by 180% in Dulwich Village, 

And ditto, for "Dulwich Village"

And  "London City".

@ianr - Rockets made general and entirely baseless claims about a filter causing crime, originally with no data.

Since being challenged, and pointed to the data showing that crime has actually reduced since 2021, he has trawled through it, looking for anything he might cherry pick, to try and justify the baseless claims he'd already made. He's discarded 90% of the data, and mis-interpreted, or deliberately misrepresented the other 10%.

There is little point in trying to understand how he has reached his conclusions from the data, because the conclusions proceeded him even looking at any data.

4 hours ago, Rockets said:

@ianr on the SctreetScan website you can break the information down to the individual street/postcode level so the trend charts are for Calton Avenue.

The police share data for ward by ward crime levels so those figures for Dulwich Village are from their latest 3 month comparison report.

London City is, I am presuming, the all London average but I have never been able to find the breakdown of what that measures.

You're just ignoring the vast majority of recorded crime categories? Why are you not claiming that 'all crime' has fallen as a result of the filter, but that rising 'theft from the person' has? What about burglary (one of your cherry picked categories), which has significantly fallen?

Even if you just talk about correlation for 'theft from the person', how can you possibly discount the background trend (the red line below):

The obvious correlation is not between a filter in Dulwich and more theft from the person, it's between rising crime in this category across London (the top line) and a (much slower) rise locally (the bottom line).

It's so nakedly dishonest.

Edited 9 minutes ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

@Earl Aelfheah ha ha, you've clipped the graphic to suit your agenda...my goodness me. How nakedly dishonest.

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

You're just ignoring the vast majority of recorded crime categories?

I have explained the rational for this, that some crime benefits from quieter streets...but I know you know that and I know you have seen me say this before...so one wonders why you ignore it and keep asking the same question.  I know why.

[Earl Aelfheah]

1 hour ago, Rockets said:

some crime benefits from quieter streets

This isn't true. You repeatedly forget that there is a record of everything you've said.

You originally made general claims about a filter causing crime, with no basis at all. Just as you did concerning pollution and pedestrian injuries.

Only after being pointed to the data showing that crime has actually reduced since 2021, did you trawl through that data, ignoring the vast majority of it, trying to find any category you might use to try and justify your original, baseless claims.

You're now trying to post rationalise why you've cherry picked just three categories, talking about a link with 'quiet streets'... but its nonsense. And you didn't reach your conclusions from the data, your conclusions proceeded you even looking at any data. 

Even with these transparently dishonest and desperate tactics, you're still just highlighting data that proves your wrong. Between 2015-2018, before the filter was introduced, there was a significant increase in robbery in Dulwich, way above current levels and the London average. Since the filter was introduced it has fallen back in line with background trends. But as usual, you just ignore the facts and just double down on your misrepresentations.

Edited 2 minutes ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

Whatever @Earl Aelfheah we have seen these tactics 100 times before. We see what you do....! 😉

You'll probably be really upset to hear local residents are discussing whether crime is increasing based on the Met Police data...and you cant try to get to them....that must be really frustrating for you. 

You can argue with me all you like but ultimately no one can hear you scream in space! 😉