More big increases in cycling

[Earl Aelfheah]

4 minutes ago, Rockets said:

oh @Earl Aelfheah..........deary, deary me....you're on a roll today aren't you 😉

You've asked what people think is the catalyst, and immediately added that you're not buying the infrastructure message.  🤷‍♀️

I think it's fairly clear that the consistent, upward trend in cycling in London over a couple of decades now, demonstrates the impact of continued investment in infrastructure. 

[Rockets]

But does that explain the massive sudden annual jump from 5% to 12.7% - I believe (and it's hard to tell as TFL has changed their reporting methodology over the years) that could be a bigger % jump in growth than even during and post-Covid?

Would you not expect that if it was infrastructure then growth would be gradual rather than an overnight jump? This year massively bucked the year-on-year decline in cycle-stage growth.

Anyone else got any other ideas?

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

The sustained long term trend is clearly linked to infrastructure. Shorter term, the massive popularity of hire schemes (e.g. Lime etc) in the context of that infrastructure having been put in place, no doubt a big factor. 

Why do you think infrastructure isn’t relevant?

Edited 19 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

21 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

The sustained long term trend is clearly linked to infrastructure.

But until this year cycle stage growth was in decline in the preceding years: in 21/22 it was 18%, in 22/23 it was 6.3% in 23/24 down to 5% and then in 24/25 back up to 12.7%. 

I don't think infrastructure is irrelevant - but it just doesn't explain the over doubling of cycle stage growth in the last year. 

Edited 19 hours ago by Rockets

[Spartacus]

Maybe the explosion of lime and forest bikes has had an impact on cycling numbers over the past year 🤔 

[Earl Aelfheah]

54 minutes ago, Rockets said:

But until this year cycle stage growth was in decline in the preceding years: in 21/22 it was 18%, in 22/23 it was 6.3% in 23/24 down to 5% and then in 24/25 back up to 12.7%. 

I don't think infrastructure is irrelevant - but it just doesn't explain the over doubling of cycle stage growth in the last year. 

That's not decline, it's a slowing in growth over 2 years (there have been similar spikey patterns in other areas over the last few years linked to changing commuting habits post-Covid). Of course, any single year will not tell you the whole picture, but the trend has been consistent; Cycling has been growing year on year for over a decade, as investments have been made in cycle infrastructure. And the recent boom in hire bikes has also been enabled by the existence of that infrastructure.

I'm so bored of your completely predictable responses to anything to do with transport. It's great that we've seen consistent growth in cycling over many years now. The investment to get here has been tiny as a proportion of the overall TfL budget. It's a great success story.

And it proves those that said "a low single digit percentage gain in cycling numbers is all any set of measures will ever deliver" wrong.

Edited 18 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[DulvilleRes]

Earl is indeed on a roll of brilliant fact checking, the overall result of which has been a decrease of unchallenged factual inaccuracies and misleading statements on these threads. Long may he keep it up.

Yet again Rockets, you have been proved wrong - out of respect to your fellow posters, why don't you just admit it?  That way we could have a measured and mutually respectful debate, instead of constantly having to counter what feels like propaganda.

 

[Rockets]

49 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

That's not decline, it's a slowing in growth over 2 years

I have consistently said a decline in growth....which it is exactly what it is....which can also be referred to as a slowing in growth if you prefer....deary, deary me....

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

And it proves those that said "a low single digit percentage gain in cycling numbers is all any set of measures will ever deliver" wrong.

Ha ha....still some way to go to get to the 10x increase promised during the lobbying for funds phase during Covid though....we are seemingly at .43x after 6 years....

12 minutes ago, DulvilleRes said:

Yet again Rockets, you have been proved wrong - out of respect to your fellow posters, why don't you just admit it?  That way we could have a measured and mutually respectful debate, instead of constantly having to counter what feels like propaganda.

@DulvilleRes what, in your mind, have I been proved wrong about exactly? Is what I say about the data and information in TFL's report wrong? No it isn't. Do you have an opinion on the catalysts for the big jump in cycle stage growth this last year - or are you just here to try and attack a fellow poster? I do find it laughable that you suggest I am pushing propaganda when asking questions about  TFL's report....

 

 

 

 

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

3 hours ago, Rockets said:

Ha ha....still some way to go to get to the 10x increase promised during the lobbying for funds phase during Covid though

The mayor suggested cycling could increase tenfold and pavements could be widened, under a scenario where travel returned to normal levels, but the need for distancing remained in place. This was 5 years ago, during the Covid lockdown, when we didn't have vaccines and things were extremely uncertain. They were planning for the possibility of having to move large numbers of people about the Capital, whist enforcing distancing. 

Edited 12 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[malumbu]

12 hours ago, Penguin68 said:

 

The great worry is that cycling, like hula hooping, was or is a passing fad. 

 

In deed, I understand that in the 1950s rock and roll was considered to be just a fad by many.  

And in the 1860s the same thing was said about the new fangled bicycle

[Earl Aelfheah]

This trend for driving around in cars will likely be replaced by pogo sticks next week.

[first mate]

15 hours ago, Rockets said:

what, in your mind, have I been proved wrong about exactly? Is what I say about the data and information in TFL's report wrong? No it isn't. Do you have an opinion on the catalysts for the big jump in cycle stage growth this last year - or are you just here to try and attack a fellow poster? I do find it laughable that you suggest I am pushing propaganda when asking questions about  TFL's report....

 

It has gone very quiet. Looking forward to @DulvilleRes response..
 

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

This trend for driving around in cars will likely be replaced by pogo sticks next week.

Malumbu told us that he performs a community service by driving around checking on various aspects of road design to ensure they are working properly. It will be most entertaining to see him do this on a pogo stick. Let us know when he starts.