diable rouge

The World Cup starts in just over 3 weeks time ! Strange that there hasn't been the build-up and hype there normally is. But never fear, the EDF World Cup Predictor League is here. Anyone new can register... https://www.predictaddict.co.uk/ New and existing members can join in using these details...

Week 12 fixtures... Saturday 29th October Leicester City v Manchester City AFC Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Brentford v Wolverhampton Wanderers Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea Crystal Palace v Southampton Newcastle United v Aston Villa Fulham v Everton Liverpool v Leeds United Sunday 30th October Arsenal v Nottingham Forest Manchester United v West Ham United

Week 11 points... Week 11 table...

I think I've missed the point here. I haven't read anywhere how people are formally nominated, but there must be some procedure for that. I've just seen this from journo Tom Newton Dunn... There’s a problem with this claim. As I understand it, the nominations have to go from MPs to Sir Graham Brady directly, not via campaigns. They remain anonymous. So nobody but him will know Johnson has 100 for sure - even if 100 had publicly declared, which they still haven’t. Public declarations all part of the gaming of the process, bluffs, double bluffs, create false momentum etc...

A reminder that Sunak, economics aside, came out with some batshit stuff during the last leadership election, and if what Steve Baker said earlier re. assurances given to him on the NIP Bill, then big problems lie ahead, even a potential trade war with the EU. I'd actually prefer Johnson to limp over the 100 line and go to the members and win, because he wouldn't last until Christmas before it all came crashing down and a GE was called. With Sunak though, I can see him limping on for much longer, although in the background the Tory party will split even further with disgruntled Johnson supporters and Tory members, especially if they haven't been allowed to vote...

I think they would still need the support of Labour and Lib Dem voters, otherwise there's nothing to stop Farage/Reform Party coming along and sweeping up votes. Any rebel Tory MPs would also have to accept sitting in opposition for 5 years or more, impotent against a massive Labour majority. A big ask but probably what's needed for the Tory Party, time for some self-reflection and to get it's act together. As a party they're currently miles from than their right of centre roots, they've essentially been cuckooed by UKIP. I feel sorry for the David Gaukes, having to watch as their party has been hijacked like this. Thankfully Labour saw sense and ditched Corbyn...

I think I've missed the point here. I haven't read anywhere how people are formally nominated, but there must be some procedure for that. A candidate has to achieve 100 public declarations of support, most seem to Tweet their support so presume it has to written in some form, although there's nothing to stop them changing their mind when it comes to the secret ballot. You're right that there can only be a max of 3 candidates as there are 350+ Tory MPs in total. Now that Sunak has reached the 100 mark, it will be interesting to see how his non-declared supporters vote. Will they vote for Mordaunt to try and get her into the final two or do they pile onto Sunak and give him an overwhelming win. As I said earlier, it would normally be expected that a well beaten second place candidate would do the honourable thing and concede defeat, like Leadsom did with May, therefore not go the membership to decide, but chances of Johnson doing that seem slim. It's all another chapter in this never-ending Tory psycho-drama, while the country continues to go down the pan. It's doubtful any new leader will solve these internal problems of the various factions and the inability to govern through parliament will continue. Amazing really for a party with a 70+ majority. And to think the worst of the cost of living crisis is yet to come...

Week 11 fixtures... Saturday 22nd October Nottingham Forest v Liverpool Everton v Crystal Palace Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea v Manchester United Sunday 23rd October Aston Villa v Brentford Leeds United v Fulham Southampton v Arsenal Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leicester City Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Monday 24th October West Ham United v AFC Bournemouth

Week 10 points... Week 10 table...

- 100 MP nominations needed - First voting round 3:30pm - 5:30pm Monday, result at 6pm - If still two candidates left, another indicative vote 6:30pm - 8:30pm, result announced at 9pm - Hope is loser of indicative vote drops out, new PM Monday evening Looks like they are trying to avoid going to a members vote. Problem is, if Johnson made it to the last 2, would he drop out after losing an indicative vote?....

It would be peak Tory to elect him as leader and then the following week(s) he's up before the Privileges' Committee re. his misleading/contempt of Parliament, which if found guilty would mean (normally) he would have to resign. He's currently sunning himself on holiday in the Caribbean during this national crisis, while briefing MPs/journos he's interested in running for PM as it would be 'in the national interest'. What's that they say about leopards and spots?...

Explainer video from the Financial Times: The Brexit Effect...

Meet our new Prime Minister...

Going. Going....Gone

More 'throwaway lines', this time from the 'intellectual' wing of Brexit...

Perhaps a good time to revisit your 'farewell' post... When I first read your 'farewell' message a few days ago, it was actually the second line that grabbed my attention the most, in particular the parachute analogy, as it reminded me that while you've been extoling the virtues of Brexit and that it's a long-term, min 10 year plan, you've always had the safety net of holding an Australian passport as well as your EU one. Now that you've had to 'pull the ripcord', perhaps one day you'll understand why those of us who haven't such safety nets and have had their plans/right to live/work/retire in the EU taken away by Brexit, hold such grievances towards Brexit and those that support it...

As all my well learned remainers friends often ask... What specific policy announcement in the mini-Budget could the UK government have NOT announced prior to brexit? Answer.... they could have made exactly the same set of announcements prior to brexit, so how was this a 'brexit economics' budget. Because brexit supporting politicians were behind it?... Were it not for Brexit* the mini-budget wouldn't have made it past a Tufton St sponsored big tent event at a Tory Party conference, let alone into Kwarteng's red briefcase. Brexit is the enabler, just as it has been for the despicable Rwanda policy or for the NIP Bill. Are you seriously telling me that a Bill that will intentionally break a binding trade agreement and international law would've been put before parliament pre-Brexit? Not on your nelly. These things have happened as a direct consequence of the Brexit we ended up with, it's processes and what it's ushered in politically under the Brexit umbrella. This mini-budget was very much the economic manifestation of the need to conjure some kind of 'Brexit dividend' to sell to the masses. *Just to reiterate, I'm referring to the hard Brexit we ended up with. Had it been, say, a Norway style deal, then we wouldn't be having this discussion because we would have far more serious and sensible politicians in charge, together with membership of the SM and the actual economic growth that brings. I get why you want to try and dissociate Brexit from this debacle, but the bottom line is that the majority of people won't have even have heard of supply side reforms let alone know what they are, and when it comes to the next GE they will simply ask themselves ''Am I better off than before, did this Brexit Gov deliver what it promised?'' Because this is a Brexit Gov no matter how you try and paint it otherwise. Johnson rode into Downing Street on the back of Brexit, so a lot of what they say and do, especially economically and and how that affects people's prosperity, will inevitably be related back to Brexit...

55 Tufton Street....

If someone truly knows the markets they will know that the markets look at things dispassionately. It didn't matter how well the mini-budget was commed, because the slickest of presentations couldn't hide that there was a circa £70 billion fiscal black hole. To the markets it also didn't matter whether the tax cuts were for the richest or poorest, because to them it was a simple case of 'bad housekeeping' i.e. economic/financial incompetence. The party that many people see as being the most competent in handling the economy, showed economic/financial ineptitude on a scale that would make a Corbyn Gov blush, and the markets reacted accordingly. One shouldn't be surprised at such blame-gaming, Brexit itself was built on this sense of 'otherness', that it was someone else's fault i.e. demonising the EU, pesky foreigners etc. So why should Brexit economics be any different. For ''That's not my Brexit'', now read ''That's not my Brexit economics''...

A reminder that there are midweek games, starting with a couple tonight...

Ah, the good ol' 'bad comms', I'd already noticed that Julian Jessop & Gerard Lyons et al have tried playing that particular card while frantically trying to row back to save their 'reputations' Larry the Cat talks more sense...

Another one to add to the 'this hasn't aged well' collection...

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that a Brexit apologist shouldn't mention it as having cost implications and a major reason why we're in this mess. The origin of our current malaise was the Brexit referendum. Charitably, it was a risky bet on a radical shift in our long-established and reasonably successful economic and geopolitical model and the bet has been lost. What we are seeing now is government by sunk-cost fallacy. The mini-budget provided us with the result of when Brexit 'economics' (which includes trickle down economics that you have personally extolled on here) meets reality, and the subsequent real-time costs therein to the nation's wealth, not to mention how it has trashed further our standing in the world. The Singapore on Thames fantasists of the IEA and ERG finally met the reality of actual free-markets and were embarrassingly wiped-out in days. The shit didn't just hit the fan, it hit them square on in the face. A busted flush. Switch the lights off on your way out chaps. Project Fear = Project Reality, the inevitable consequence of 6 years of clapping and cheering the ignoring of rules-based orders, the trashing of parliamentary norms and precedents, undermining the peace process in Northern Ireland and the stability of the Union, the creation of an internal wall of red tape for British business to navigate at extra cost, and so on and so on. And like the involuntary twitches of a dying body, they even clapped and cheered in the aftermath of Kwarteng's statement, one final denial of realty for old time's sake. That they would even attempt an economic experiment like this while the country is going through such crises should make even the most ardent Brexiter question them. But here they are, still denying it, still sticking their head in the sand, still blaming it on 'a Remainer plot'. Meanwhile, back in realty, the rest of us are left with picking-up the bill with a maxed-out credit card that's just been declined...

Libertarian free-trade deregulation low-tax economics. Thoughts and prayers go out to the secretly funded think-tanks at this difficult time. No flowers please...