the economy - update

[Lordship 516]

Jenny1 Wrote:

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> I really appreciated Simon Jenkins' books on

> churches and cathedrals. But I don't find his

> political journalism very thoughtful or

> convincing.

....I agree entirely. His political economics is superficial & subjective & generally anti-science. Most economists recognize the limitations of their forecasts and advise that they should only be used as a framework within which the client [government or private] will consider possibilities, interrogate & develop queries that require further investigation/analysis. If you take forecasts literally & out of context then it leads to a baseless conjecture which wll ultimately fail.

Jenkins & his ilk have no patience to take the time to examine the various positions and invariably look for pat answers which will never be forthcoming. Its much easier to demolish than to build.

Andy Haldene is a very readable & erudite commentator and he is valued widely by economists worldwide, However, you must read what he says carefully & not presume to read between the lines what is not there.

Jenkins was a creature of the Blair era & he generally rants against all science & celebrates most scientific failures. He should stick with his churches, cathedrals & the London party glitterati where he has many well-off fellow travellers.

[jaywalker]

It seems the Chinese (the largest growth area we might have hoped for an alternative trade pact after the 'no bits left brexit' proclaimed by our great leader today) are distancing themselves rather quickly (FT main story this weekend). I can't think why.

[????]

and here's some actual economists for our eminent forecaster..

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-university-of-cambridge-treasury-forecasts-little-basis-in-reality-project-fear-2017-1

Lordship you are not being objective here at all - which is fine you're absolutely entitled to your political views - but stop trying to claim some kind of rational and 'expert' high ground when your forecasts have thus far been terrible and are clearly driven by your subjective views on Brexit and are somewhat partisan (as your more recent posts clearly show), something which you seem completley unaware of and is possible effecting your expert judgement and certainly your forecasts!

[????]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> We have to accept that things haven't been as bad

> as was predicted.

Sums up a lot of remainers opinion (but not mine) - "we have to accept FFS"? You, like many, clearly would rather things had gone badly....

It's done, we are out and we have to make the best of it and we are in betters shape than most on the left are willing to admit - with a lot more leverage than you realise. This Forum is like the fooking Guardian - negative, sanctimonious, full of woe, country hating - typical middleclass left wingery nothing positive to contribute. Why I gave up with left to be honest

[steveo]

Go Pounds

[steveo]

As well as dull

[Jenny1]

???? Wrote:

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> This Forum is like the

> fooking Guardian

Sometimes it is. I agree. But is it not also sometimes like the fooking Financial Times? (and I mean that in a good way.)

But to be serious. I don't think this is about 'left' and 'right'. I'm sure we all hope for the continued (and indeed increased) prosperity of this country, and that this prosperity translates into the improved welfare of all of it's citizens. But I do think it's important to do all we can (principally via lobbying MPs) to ensure that this government doesn't, in it's determination to hang on to voters, prioritise ideology over economic prudence.

When senior businessmen and industrialists (including major Tory donors) are warning about the dangers of this - then it's hardly a mark of a Marxist world view to agree with them, surely?

I hope and pray that we come out of this in fine economic health. Who wouldn't? But that's virtually all I can do - hope. Do we not have a right to expect that those who can do more, those in power, use their brains and their influence to work for our long term prosperity and security, rather than focusing all their efforts on winning the next election?

[JohnL]

???? Wrote:

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> rahrahrah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > We have to accept that things haven't been as

> bad

> > as was predicted.

>

> Sums up a lot of remainers opinion (but not mine)

> - "we have to accept FFS"? You, like many, clearly

> would rather things had gone badly....

>

> It's done, we are out and we have to make the best

> of it and we are in betters shape than most on the

> left are willing to admit - with a lot more

> leverage than you realise. This Forum is like the

> fooking Guardian - negative, sanctimonious, full

> of woe, country hating - typical middleclass left

> wingery nothing positive to contribute. Why I gave

> up with left to be honest

But TM with Sophie Ridge yesterday making it pretty obvious

it will be a hard brexit.

Red line on borders and the 'best deal' on single market

access that could mean a rubbish deal).

I think we'll end up either with a transitional deal or on WTO

rules.

[JohnL]

Once again today Theresa May talking a good talk.

But how will she deliver, tax the rich, remove the triple

lock (suggested by a journalist).

[Jeremy]

???? Wrote:

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> It's done, we are out and we have to make the best

> of it and we are in betters shape than most on the

> left are willing to admit

But surely it's far from done.. it's not really a binary in/out switch, nobody knows what shape Brexit is going to take and what sort of deal we can negotiate with the EU. It's a bit too early to say the doom-mongers were wrong.

[JohnL]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It's done, we are out and we have to make the

> best

> > of it and we are in betters shape than most on

> the

> > left are willing to admit

>

> But surely it's far from done.. it's not really a

> binary in/out switch, nobody knows what shape

> Brexit is going to take and what sort of deal we

> can negotiate with the EU. It's a bit too early to

> say the doom-mongers were wrong.

Why should the EU move beyond the four freedoms in

negotiations and then if we want to negotiate a trade deal

we start 2 years down the line

That's why a transition is needed - but the Brexiteers don't

want that as it may become permanent.

[Earl Aelfheah]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> rahrahrah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > We have to accept that things haven't been as

> bad

> > as was predicted.

>

> Sums up a lot of remainers opinion (but not mine)

> - "we have to accept FFS"? You, like many, clearly

> would rather things had gone badly....

>

> It's done, we are out and we have to make the best

> of it and we are in betters shape than most on the

> left are willing to admit - with a lot more

> leverage than you realise. This Forum is like the

> fooking Guardian - negative, sanctimonious, full

> of woe, country hating - typical middleclass left

> wingery nothing positive to contribute. Why I gave

> up with left to be honest

What do you mean "I would rather things had gone badly"? You do talk a lot of sh*t quids. Also, you're insistence on making everything an issue of 'left / right' is silly. The EU debate cut across both parties.

[jaywalker]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > This Forum is like the

> > fooking Guardian

>

> Sometimes it is. I agree. But is it not also

> sometimes like the fooking Financial Times? (and I

> mean that in a good way.)

>

> But to be serious. I don't think this is about

> 'left' and 'right'.

Jenny1 is right, the FT rules (and has a reading age of about four years higher than any other paper - i.e. about 12). Today there is an excellent, truly first-rate, article by Janan Ganesh about the reactionary content of May's policies (and that, unfortunately, she is very far from being indecisive when it comes to pursuing a hard brexit).

May is an isolationist whose dream of order is centred on controlling immigration - whatever the economic cost - and returning us to the 'family values' and 'shared society' she has such a nostalgia for. Like all such nostalgias the content is imaginary.

So for me Jenny is also correct that this is not best thought of as 'left' versus 'right'. Here we have interventionist social policy (of an extremely narrow and reactionary kind) quite anathema to the liberal sections of both the Tory and Labour party (those who will join the forthcoming centre coalition when hard brexit materialises and Corbyn is forced out). This is independent of whether you are interventionist or laissez-faire on economics.