Quick, panic buy pot noodles

[TheArtfulDogger]

Saw this on the BBC website today, is this the start of pot noodle panic buying ?

Will university towns run dry first, leading to an academic crisis ?

All very worrying

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37639518

[Earl Aelfheah]

Tesco's all too often squeeze small suppliers to the point of bankruptcy. Unilever have the size / clout to resist this and i'm glad they're facing Tesco down. Shame others aren't in a position to do the same.

[Blah Blah]

This was my thinking too rahrah. We've had cheap (compared to market forces) food for a long time now, down to the hard negotiating of the big supermarkets. I see it as an impasse between big business, more than anything else. But underlying it of course, are rising prices elsewhere in the priduction chain, some of which are affected by the falling pound. We should also espect to see inflation rise in these economic conditions anyway.

[natty01295]

Pound shops

[jaywalker]

Sure there will be a power struggle between supermarkets and producers (general quality of life is surprisingly dependent on two multinational producers - I REALLY do not want to eat Tesco-brand-marmite, and I must have Hellman's not some substitute). There will also be room for serious contest here between Unilever and Proctor & Gamble. Of course the multinationals will win: Unilever only does 3% of its business in the UK it can leverage in a way Tesco would be very brave to try (prolonged empty shelves anyone?) And this is just the first round: think Tesco may have 'first mover disadvantage' here in game theory terms.

But my real interest in the story is the populist reaction by some commentators that if the pound falls by 20% then imported produce should stay the same price - after all we got our country back and marmite is British so how dare they try to 'profit' from Brexit, these foreign companies need taking down a peg or too, so well done to Tesco for flying the flag!

Meanwhile, see petrol prices.

[JohnL]

According to Unilever most of the other supermarkets have paid increased prices.

[JohnL]

David Davies said he'd buy Australian Vegemite.

Until a load of people pointed out the ? versus Aus$ graph.

[Earl Aelfheah]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> David Davies said he'd buy Australian Vegemite.

>

> Until a load of people pointed out the ? versus

> Aus$ graph.

Ha, ha.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I'm surprised May hasn't exalted us to spread dripping on our toast, like back in the 50's.

[Blah Blah]

A falling pound though does still affect production costs for things produced in this country. We import all kinds of raw materials and energy, which producers have to pay increased prices for.

[JohnL]

Of course the Government could nationalise Marmite ;)

[maxxi]

I shall just wait for Lidl to introduce Mahmeitz (ironic that Brexit may see the further rise and rise of this German high street paradise as more people realise their cheaper own-brand stuff - unlike, say, Tesco's - isn't total crap)...

Also Bol noodles are 2 for 1 at Waitrose and far better than Pot... and if young men and women are forced to forego drenching themselves in Lynx/Impulse we'll all breathe easier.

In fact ANY reason not to go to Tesco is a good thing.

[Blah Blah]

Breaking news. Unilever and Tesco have come to an 'agreement'. The Marmite embargo is over!

[maxxi]

That just paves the way for a full blown HP hostage crisis and ultimately Nutella sanctions...

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

I love the Next CEO's solution to this: "inflation is coming, so the government needs to put in the infrastucture to deal with it."

How about an integrated market that has meant we've had relative FX stability?

[malumbu]

I'd bring back retail price control, prevent the supermarkets from selling fags and fresh bread, and return to the 1960s (along with grammer schools and hopefully hanging).

To be serious price controls work in France hence they still have village shops and tabacs with about ten customers a day. Opening hours aren't so great though...

[jaywalker]

Think I will remember this as the day people began to get a glimmer of the future.

Most firms are at least partially hedged against the fall in sterling until early next year. After that ...

Long term infrastructure projects boost the supply side, but they take decades (and often turn into white elephants). This potential is in any case already more than offset by the appalling anti-EU-worker rhetoric - as prices rise and wage demands grow there will simultaneously be a shortage of labour as the EU workers depart, raising wages further - these costs rising at exactly the same time as input prices for firms increase dramatically from the fall in sterling (about 20 to 25%). We have seen this before: it is always the state-ist wing of the Tories that inflicts this kind of madness (viz Barber in Heath's government) (there are of course other kinds of madness inflicted by the other wing).

And this leaves out of the picture further rises in the oil price (not yet translated into petrol prices) and a greater downward spiral of sterling (particularly when the public finances are admitted). I think all politicians should be shown graphs of just how quickly inflation has spiralled out of control and so often in the UK since WW2 - each time we were told that it was not going to happen and everything was ok.

[Blah Blah]

The problem is that governments and public alike become complacent and forget how it was or what it leads to. It's why we are having decades of boom and bust and every time, the masters of the universe think it won't happen again, because they are so much cleverer this time! No-one ever questions the system when the money is rolling in.

[malumbu]

Hmmm boom-bust. Yes in deed. Blair's government was going to rid us of this, noting we were coming out of an economic low at the time. But then we had low interest rates and low inflation, with low unemployment and lots of other factors to encouage us to borrow.

This one is totally self inflicted. I am now liking it to the inflation post middle East crisis in the early 70s which my dad, probably rightly said, screwed up his pension. Which will be the same for me I expect.

Perhaps if the leavers had campaigned with a "panic buy pot noodles" slogan we wouldn't be where we are.

Interestingly it is difficult to stop panic buying which could be seen as a rational decision rather than selfish hoarding (or worse still profiteering). Government say don't panic, but we do as government can't be telling the truth. Media savvy experts say the same, still to the same effect. Usually it is bread, bottled water, fuel and toilet rolls that go first.

Looks like we could be heading back before the 60s, even before the 50s, to the winter of '48 where people had to burn furniture to say warm. But they were good old days of course......

Fack I am unhappy about all of this.

[jaywalker]

Yes, the technocratic solution (independent Bank of England, Fiscal Policy rules, Office of Budget Responsibility) produces a time-inconsistent policy - that is, the more it is hard-wired into the system as a set of rules (for an allegedly timeless good) the more the system falls apart over time.

Most generally (well beyond economics), this was a major insight of Kant:

"... a concept of the understanding, which contains the general rule, must be supplemented by an act of judgement whereby the practitioner distinguishes instances where the rule applies from those where it does not. And since rules cannot in turn be provided on every occasion to direct the judgement in subsuming each instance under the previous rule (for this would involve an infinite regress), theoreticians will be found who can never in all their lives become practical, since they lack judgement."

I am so in awe of Kant!

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Interesting quote! I wonder if that concern partly explains the difference between the civil and common law approach? EU law is infuriatingly nebulous at times, but at least it keeps you focussed on the principles.

[JohnL]

Red Alert on stocks issued by HSBC (just from statistical analysis I think)

http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-red-alert-get-ready-for-a-severe-fall-in-the-stock-market-2016-10

Not related to Brexit but it won't help.