Banks - Lest We Forget

[HAL9000]

If it were only Gibbon's voice crying in the wilderness....

[louisiana]

SMG, I'm not denying that people have an uncanny knack of finding interesting solutions to problems.

And I think most if not all of those who know me, know that I have one of the sunniest dispositions known to man :)

But I'd venture to suggest that globalisation, added to global problems, have perhaps contributed significantly to something of a perfect storm, and that off-the-cuff talk of the inevitability of recovery - mentioned on this thread - sometime next-week-soon is really a little silly. Just because we rely on something happening doesn't mean it will; that's how children think.

Meantime, I'm doing things like installing big-time insulation (energy prices will only go up, yeah?) and doing other stuff that may be helpful or useful (as well as being fun, in many cases). Because I do think that BAU is over, for a while at least.

[louisiana]

SMG, I'm not denying that people have an uncanny knack of finding interesting solutions to problems.

And I think most if not all of those who know me, know that I have one of the sunniest dispositions known to man :)

But I'd venture to suggest that off-the-cuff talk of the inevitability of recovery - mentioned on this thread - sometime next-week-soon is really a little silly. Just because we rely on something happening doesn't mean it will; that's how children think.

Meantime, I'm doing things like installing big-time insulation (energy prices will only go up, yeah?) and doing other stuff that may be helpful or useful (as well as being fun, in many cases). Because I do think that BAU is over, for a while at least.

[louisiana]

HAL9000 Wrote:

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> SMG - Historically, every civilisation prior to

> ours has collapsed - often leaving barely a record

> of its demise: only the centuries of 'Dark Ages'

> that followed in their wake.

Tainter is worth reading on this issue.

>

> I agree with louisiana - the future for the

> so-called western economic system looks dire. The

> idea that it is somehow different this time sounds

> like wishful thinking, in my view.

Yes, special pleading, "this is different", "we are special" seems the incorrect approach, given the history.

[louisiana]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> Irish Banking... whatever next?

Icelandic banking? :)

[mockney piers]

"Just because we rely on something happening doesn't mean it will; that's how children think"

That's a bit harsh as a sweeping statement L. To be fair that's how 100% of us function day to day or we wouldnt step straight into our showers, get on a plane, make a phone call on an iPhone, actually scratch that last one.

But agreed critical thinking never hurt anyone.

[louisiana]

Routine thinking (which we depend on day-to-day: showers, taps etc.) is a little different from big picture stuff. Freeing our brains from the routine to tackle the big picture is surely what we should excel at.

[HAL9000]

A few years ago I had an interest in a company that imported scientific instruments from India to Europe and the US - from optical laboratory microscopes to large-scale, computer-controlled biochemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing plants.

The idea that Asian countries are manufacturing low cost, low complexity, commodity crap is completely misinformed. Time after time we obtained complementary quotes from local manufacturers - they simply could not compete on price and quality ? their only advantage was proximity for servicing and training.

In time, as more Asian entrepreneurs arbitrage the price disparities, even those advantages are likely to evaporate.

[mockney piers]

And I can't resist, but the problem with Tainter is that he's come up with a clever idea and tries to get the facts to fit them, while losing sight of the sheer weight and body of evidence provided by boring sciences like, err, history and archaeology rather than anthropological complexity theory.

As a codicil to your axiom above I would say just because we want something to be true, doesn't make it so. Sadly that's exactly how far too many people think, children or no.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was today, 03:28pm by mockney piers.

[Loz]

Good grief - what a dismal bunch. Frankly, I think that while some will be worse off in the short term, this is just a blip. All the infrastructure for a decent economy is still in place, people are still buying goods and services and the sun will still come up tomorrow.

The UK is still in decent nick. Everyone - and I mean everyone - is better off than people were 30 years ago. Poverty is so unknown in this country they've had to redefine the word so the usual people have got something to wring their hands over. There are literally billions of people in over 100 countries that would swap places with the poorest person in the UK tomorrow.

For comparison, I was reading this article on the Beeb today about poverty 100 years ago back in 1910. Their food consisted of:

Monday:

* Breakfast - Tea, bread and margarine

* Dinner - Tea, bread and margarine

* Supper - Tea, bread

Tuesday:

* Breakfast -Tea, bread and jam

* Dinner - Tea, 3 stale buns

* Supper - Tea, bread

Sunday:

* Breakfast - Tea, kippers, bread

* Dinner - three pennyworth of meat pieces boiled with potatoes

* Tea - bread and margarine, onions

[HAL9000]

I'm aware of his work but I haven't read any of Tainter's books yet - I've given up adding new titles to my reading list: life's too short :(

[Mick Mac]

Loz - why is it supper during the week and tea on Sunday?

[Huguenot]

HAL, "The idea that Asian countries are manufacturing low cost, low complexity, commodity crap is completely misinformed."

Sorry about this, I could have chosen my words more wisely than this cliche, what I was trying to do was talk about the products and services rolled out by a highly educated ingenious workforce, and those rolled out by grunt work.

Whilst there are sophisticated, educated elements in China, they're numbered at around 60m out of a population of 1.3bn. Identifying an exception to this will not disprove this argument - the uneducated majority is still the powerhouse of their economy, and a very precarious model it is.

[Brendan]

So still double that of the uk.

[Loz]

Mick Mac Wrote:

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> Loz - why is it supper during the week and tea on

> Sunday?

Don't ask me! Obviously Yorkshire turn-of-the-century terminology.

[Huguenot]

It is Brenda, but the point is that as more of the population becomes educated they become more socially demanding. This means an end to sweatshop labour policies and China becomes less competitive on the world stage. Threat diminished.

As the article Piersy discussed, the Chinese govt. is already turning a blind eye to labour disputes that would historically have been ruthlessly discouraged. They're supporting a wage inflation that narrows the wealth gap, but also undermines exports.

[Jeremy]

I kind of get Huguenot's point, in that if there is a future in manufacturing in the UK, it is in niche/innovative/low-volume products... not vast quantities of low-cost consumer goods.

[Brendan]

Oh was there a point being made before I piped up. Sorry I don?t always read all this shit before a chip in my thrupence worth.

[Loz]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> I kind of get Huguenot's point, in that if there

> is a future in manufacturing in the UK, it is in

> niche/innovative/low-volume products... not vast

> quantities of low-cost consumer goods.

Tis true. Our wages demands don't support the manufacture of commodity items. We just cannot compete. We need to do the value-add, premium items.

[Mick Mac]

Like Dysons. That company will clean up.

[Huguenot]

*chortles*

[HAL9000]

The problem with that argument is that the BRICs already have high-tech manufacturing capabilities - in some areas their research and development facilities are equal to or more advanced than our own - or soon will be.

The western economies cannot be resurrected with low-volume, high-value components like satellites, for example, because they only employ relatively small groups of highly-skilled/qualified technicians and the demand is limited. And we still have to compete with our western peers.

What's left - luxury items like whiskey and wine are doing well right now but how long before Asian fakes flood those markets too?

[woofmarkthedog]

Hal said >

> What's left - luxury items like whiskey and wine

> are doing well right now but how long before Asian

> fakes flood those markets too?

__________________________

Yep

Then the Oriental fakes of the Asian fakes

It's unstoppable you know

W**F

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Sorry Hal:

Another Award winner likely to cause a surprise was an Indian Single Malt, which was awarded the title of World?s Third Best Whisky. Distilled in Bangalore, Amrut Fusion scored an outstanding 97 points. "It makes no matter where in the world a whisky is made. If it is magnificent, then it stands a chance of being recognized in the Whisky Bible Awards. Amrut have been bottling astonishing whisky for a few years now. But this particular bottling just made my hairs stand on end. It is hard to find a whisky with better balance. India has unquestionably arrived as a whisky nation? added Murray.

PS - if manufacturing isn't the answer, can't we go back to providing our own food? [i don't like bananas that much.]

[Huguenot]

I don't believe so, I last answered this question in Lithuania about 7 years ago. I think that the UK stopped being food sufficient before that. Too many people, too little space.

We're in a global economy whether we like it or not.