jaywalker Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Found my ED market Hog Roast today was 25% more than last time I bought it. No criticism of the excellent business selling them: with wholesale prices of pork rising sharply, and the pound falling, unavoidable. But I wonder if this kind of live connection to economic reality (unlike the lags involved in the vertical complexities of the big suppliers) is about as clear a warning of the looming economic cliff edge as one could hope to see. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jules-and-Boo Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 25%? - that's going the whole hog Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097780 Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken78 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 who told you that wholesale prices of pork rising sharply. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097828 Share on other sites More sharing options...
rendelharris Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yes as far as I can ascertain wholesale pork is only a penny more a kilo (less than 1%) now than it was in September 2016 and a whole tenpence cheaper than it was at its high in 2014. No doubt there will be hard times and price rises ahead at some point, but if someone's hiked their prices by 25% and says it's because of the wholesale price, they're telling you porkies! Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097831 Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken78 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 rendelharris Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> Yes as far as I can ascertain wholesale pork is> only a penny more a kilo (less than 1%) now than> it was in September 2016 and a whole tenpence> cheaper than it was at its high in 2014. No doubt> there will be hard times and price rises ahead at> some point, but if someone's hiked their prices by> 25% and says it's because of the wholesale price,> they're telling you porkies!i think you are right porkies. but hoe do you know the prices?? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097841 Share on other sites More sharing options...
rendelharris Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The magic of t'internet! http://pork.ahdb.org.uk/prices-stats/prices/pig-prices-uk-spec/ Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097850 Share on other sites More sharing options...
???? Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 jaywalker Wrote:------------------------------------------------------->t as clear a warning of the> looming economic cliff edge as one could hope to> see.The "hope" says it all about what a miserablist you are! Orwell had a lovely descriptor of "intellectuals" dressing their own prejudices up as fact behind a veneer of pseudo-academic language. I'm going to look it up - it suits you and a couple of others on this forum. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097852 Share on other sites More sharing options...
rendelharris Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Rough night Quids? Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097854 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabag Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 rendelharris Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> Rough night Quids?It's a kind of back handed bit of virtue signaling that ????'S seems to be engaged inProbably with some heavy irony dropped in for good measure Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1097973 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny1 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I've never tried the hog roast at the market - though it smells tempting.I'm more concerned about the rise/potential rise in prices of day to day food items. Butter seems to have set off at an inflationary gallop recently..... Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098001 Share on other sites More sharing options...
malumbu Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 According to the Archers we could have Polish lamb flooding the markets in a few years so clearly all is well. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098009 Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaywalker Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 rendelharris Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> The magic of t'internet!> http://pork.ahdb.org.uk/prices-stats/prices/pig-pr> ices-uk-spec/Excellent link. So "32p [per kilo] higher than same time last year" (and a nice graph to show it) from a base that looks like about 110p. Price rise looks about right therefore if you do your pricing annually. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098013 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loz Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Jenny1 Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> I'm more concerned about the rise/potential rise in prices of day to day food items. Butter seems> to have set off at an inflationary gallop recently.....We import most of our butter, so it's not surprising. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098029 Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnL Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 jaywalker Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> rendelharris Wrote:> --------------------------------------------------> -----> > The magic of t'internet!> >> http://pork.ahdb.org.uk/prices-stats/prices/pig-pr> > > ices-uk-spec/> > Excellent link. So "32p higher than same time> last year" (and a nice graph to show it) from a> base that looks like about 110p. Price rise looks> about right therefore if you do your pricing> annually.Maybe retailers are putting prices up when wholesaleprice rises and just take more profits when it falls. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098264 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabag Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The hog roast is pretty blandsville tbhIt smells better than it tastes I'd stick to sniffing it, that treat hasn't gone up in price. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1098272 Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbboy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Not just on North Cross Road, but I suppose unsurprisingly prices in Sainsbury's are slowly but surely increasing for fresh fruit and in store baked bread. Oranges up from 30p to 40p each, instore baked bread going up 5p a loaf from 1.20 to 1.25. I know the increases are small but prices are going up. is this a result of Brexit? Possibly yes. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101167 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Seabag Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> The hog roast is pretty blandsville tbh> > It smells better than it tastes > > I'd stick to sniffing it, that treat hasn't gone> up in price.I don't like the way they mash up the meat before putting it in the bun. Would rather have a couple of decent slices of meat... Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101223 Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandNewGuy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 dbboy Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> Not just on North Cross Road, but I suppose> unsurprisingly prices in Sainsbury's are slowly> but surely increasing for fresh fruit and in store> baked bread. Oranges up from 30p to 40p each,> instore baked bread going up 5p a loaf from 1.20> to 1.25. I know the increases are small but prices> are going up. is this a result of Brexit? Possibly> yes.The FAO produce a Food Price Index each month and the latest one indicates steady increases in world food prices:"The FAO Food Price at near two-year high in JanuaryThe FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 173.8 points in January 2017, up 3.7 points (2.1 percent) from the revised December value. At this level, the FFPI is at its highest value since February 2015 and as much as 24.5 points (16.4 percent) above its level in the corresponding period last year. The strong rebound in the January value of the FFPI was driven by a surge in international sugar quotations and sharp increases in export prices of cereals as well as vegetable oils. Meat and dairy markets remained more stable."http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101260 Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveR Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 "I know the increases are small but prices are going up. is this a result of Brexit? Possibly yes."Almost certainly not. Most staple foods are globally traded commodities with price fluctuations arising from all sorts of different events (affecting supply) coupled with increasing/decreasing demand, linked to cultural and demographic changes. Plus UK food retailing is a complex market with lots of different competitive pressures (though maybe not enough competition overall). The first post on this thread was nonsense, and tbh the whole issue is a red herring as far as Brexit/Trump/other populist outrage is concerned. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101263 Share on other sites More sharing options...
red devil Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Supermarkets are always manipulating their prices, for every BOGOF/price reduction, they are adding 10p's here and there to other items to compensate... Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101286 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 DaveR Wrote:-------------------------------------------------------> "I know the increases are small but prices are> going up. is this a result of Brexit? Possibly> yes."> > Almost certainly not. Most staple foods are> globally traded commodities with price> fluctuations arising from all sorts of different> events (affecting supply) coupled with> increasing/decreasing demand, linked to cultural> and demographic changes. True, but the Brexit vote did depress the value of the pound by about 10%, and that is going to have an effect on imports. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101287 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angelina Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10%? so the pork in a bun is just adding it on even above that.supply and demand....... basic.they probably realised they were selling it regardless so just added more on top. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101341 Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLeg Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Brexit hasn't happened yet, so it hasn't affected prices. I know this may sound like a trite or obvious point, but it's an important one. Market volatility in the wake of the referendum resulted in a fall in sterling against the euro, and the direct result of that is if you purchase your products in euro's but book your profits in sterling then tou need to find what was at one point another 20% just to be standing still. Suppliers I work with in that position all put prices up in the autumn - they had no choice. Those who purchase only in sterling are unaffected. No one knows what will happen in between now and Brexit - ask five economists and you'll get six different answers - but until then, currency exchange issues aside, we face the same problems as anyone else in Europe.So the real question is what will happen after we exit? We've been eating food that's not priced at a fair reflection of the cost of production for a long time; the government won't want visuals of queues for bread and milk so they'll do anything to reach a deal which has a little impact on food prices as possible. I have no solid idea what's going to happen, and nor does anyone else. What I believe is that food prices will continue to rise, and that it would happen no matter what's going on with Brexit, and that it will be impossible to work out how much effect Brexit actually has on it. Because for years - decades even - the public hasn't wanted to know how much a pint of milk or a loaf of bread actually costs. Marco Pierre White berated people for saying that chickens shouldn't be as cheap as ?5, because - he said - why shouldn't a poor family be entitled to buy a chicken at that price? But he knows, everyone knows, you can't grow a chicken at that price unless you're a massive agri-business, of the type that's rapidly putting small farmers out of business. So it becomes a conversation about how you want to feed the population?Food pricing is a horribly tricky discussion which most people ignore. We won't be able to ignore it much longer, and Brexit has very little to do with it. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101402 Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbboy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Joeleg - thanks for such a solid response. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101407 Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaywalker Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Interesting that price pressures are coming from a big fall in the pound (our open economy) which "has nothing to do with brexit". I guess the fall in the pound after the referendum was just a spurious correlation then?To be sure there were signs of an upsurge in inflation regardless of the fall in the pound. Several years of quantitative easing eventually shows through. But this is an AND not an OR.The significant Brexit effect will be if the May government fulfills its promises over immigration. You would then see wage pressures of 1970s proportions - or is this too "nonsense"? Add to that the abolition of the free trade area in an import dependent country and prepare for significant falls in the real standard of living. Link to comment https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/140127-local-warning-signs-of-the-cliff-edge/#findComment-1101430 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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