Peak Oil - the coming catastrophe

[????]

Of course the answer's Nuclear Sean but you also identify the problem it's a hands in the ears shreaks of "Chernobyl, Cherniobyl" response...no proper debate...... ever. Still when we re realise we really are running out of options it will come.

[HAL9000]

I think it is worth posting the following paragraph from the above-mentioned article in The Oil Drum. I'm unlikely to experience the worst of this but younger members of this forum - and their children - will be alive during the worst of the post-Peak Oil decline in global population levels. The survivors (one in six) will be those who are fully prepared in advance, in my view.

The Cost

... Based on this model we would experience an average excess death rate of 100 million per year every year for the next 75 years to achieve our target population of one billion by 2082. The peak excess death rate would happen in about 20 years, and would be about 200 million that year. ...

-- The Oil Drum: Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room - Revisited

 

[Loz]

wjfox Wrote:

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> Townleygreen Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I've been worried about this for years.

> >

> > The Oil Drum website is very scary in places.

> >

>

>

> Indeed...

>

> http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6924

>

> Long article, but well worth reading.

A great argument for cutting Child Benefit??!!

[Jeremy]

one in six survivors... what movies have you been watching, Hal?!

[david_carnell]

The survivors (one in six) will be those who are fully prepared in advance, in my view.

What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully prepared. I'm not being flippant either....if I buy into this "end of days" stuff what sort of things will see me through it?

[????]

Brogues

[david_carnell]

I'm set to go then!

[wjfox]

david_carnell Wrote:

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> The survivors (one in six) will be those who are

> fully prepared in advance, in my view.

>

> What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully

> prepared.

Move to the countryside. Buy a house with solar panels and good insulation. Grow your own food, stock up on seeds, etc.

[Loz]

wjfox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> david_carnell Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The survivors (one in six) will be those who

> are

> > fully prepared in advance, in my view.

> >

> > What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully

> > prepared.

>

> Move to the countryside. Buy a house with solar

> panels and good insulation. Grow your own food,

> stock up on seeds, etc.

The get murdered by the have nots for your food.

[Jeremy]

Not if you've constructed an adequately fortified security perimiter... and of course, taken the appropriate measures to prevent detection.

[HAL9000]

It's a plausible scenario - the problem is no one knows how it will unfold: whether it will be gradual and controlled or swift and chaotic. My guess is something like the domino effect. It'll start within the most vulnerable countries and spread across regions and continents until all but a few enclaves of law and order remain - that's where most of the survivors will be.

Each swift episode of chaos will be followed by a period of calm until a self-sustaining equilibrium is achieved.

Those who can guarantee their own survival (i.e. those in positions of power at the relevant time) will face an interesting dilemma: do they expend precious resources on saving the masses or do they let them go under quickly in order to provide their own descendants with the best survival prospects? After all, the survivors will literally inherit the earth.

Of late, I?ve been wondering whether the western banks have already discounted the effect Peak Oil will have on future property prices ? hence their reluctance to lend on real estate in general?

[Jeremy]

> I?ve been wondering whether the western

> banks have already discounted the effect Peak Oil

> will have on future property prices ? hence their

> reluctance to lend on real estate in general?

Why the correlation between oil and property, instead of other assets?

Anyway, as far as I know, no bank is yet running stress tests on apocalyptic end-of-civilization scenarios.

[????]

Western banks are pushed to think much beyond their next quarterly results, today's share price and their next bonus if you think the Boradroom's of the big western banks are building peak oil into their strategies (which are soooo short term) you live in CC land.

[HAL9000]

Mortgages are long-term investments - the maturity dates of new mortgages fall in or around the projected Peak Crunch in population levels - coincidence or what?

Whatever one thinks about banks, the quants who design and value mortgage-backed securities have to make assumptions and forward-looking projections through to the maturity dates.

If they even suspected that UK house prices might be closer to 1950s than 2010 levels in 25-30 years time - well, do I need to draw a picture?

[????]

Board members of banks will be nowhere near them by peak oil. They couldn't give a flying. Their goals are entirely short term and driven by THEIR performance and the banks share price and performance at the next quarterly results. They give not a hoot about even 5 years away, they're not that keen on mortgages becuase they think that the housing market is still inflated and may burst anytime soon nothing to do with some future armageddon. But you conspire on.

[HAL9000]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> Why the correlation between oil and property,

> instead of other assets?

How many other assets are purchased with a 30-year loan secured on future value?

[mockney piers]

You're all getting silly now.

For a sensible idea of what we face you need to read Max Brooks' World War Z

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5MBCDlb9jDkC&dq=world+war+z&source=bl&ots=egKODe3Svu&sig=88lKMJLQRW2shAwVHjzhQJ3FqPo&hl=en&ei=cHvnTOLaAYeqhAe51onwDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CEQQ6AEwCQ

[HAL9000]

???? Wrote:

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But you conspire on.

It's still early days - once I've added the relevant Biblical prophecies and links to the Knights Templar, the Holy Grail and Crop Circles you will be convinced - I'm sure.

[Brendan]

david_carnell Wrote:

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> The survivors (one in six) will be those who are

> fully prepared in advance, in my view.

>

> What, exactly, should I be doing to be fully

> prepared.

Guns

Lots of guns.

[Huguenot]

Buns

Lots of buns.

It's not actually true to say that the UK isn't self-sufficient in food. It depends what food group you're talking about, and how easy or difficult it is to rectify the situation:

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46174000/gif/_46174429_food_security_446gr.gif

The only situation that might be slightly unnerving is fresh vegetables - but it's easy to rectify. There's plenty of available farmland. Currently the EU pays farmers not to farm. Potatoes and meat are nothing to worry about.

The fruit thing's a shame, but no reason to panic - there's quite enough of our nutritional requirements in more 'British' foods. Fruit's a bit of a luxury.

So from a food perspective the transport oil thing wouldn't necessarily be a crisis, just a change of style.

Cooking it might be a different matter.

If you'd like a detailed breakdown of UK food security you can find it here.

[Brendan]

Arse to that. 'British' foods blow goats*.

Guns, lots of guns would secure you passage to Africa where the employment of guns, lots of guns, would sort you out a piece land with its own water source.

Granted, I've stolen this idea from somewhere but it is preferable to cabbage.

*Pies and beer excepted

[HAL9000]

Does that level of food security come with or without oil-based mechanised agriculture, processing and distribution, fertiliser and pesticide production and the heating of greenhouses, battery farms and over-wintering sheds?

[Huguenot]

You'd have to ask that of them wot rote it.

I deliberately didn't talk about the overall picture, as I'm sure it's more complex, but the debate was about peak oil, not about the end of energy. Hence the assumption is that many aspects of mechanization can still go ahead as usual - including heating greenhouses and sheds, and running conveyor belts. Distribution could still take place over electrified rail systems etc.

The ones that aren't much good without oil are things like refrigerated overseas distribution.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Heinz tomato soup and scotch. Or is it 42?

[Jeremy]

HAL9000 Wrote:

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> How many other assets are purchased with a 30-year loan secured on future value?

In reality most mortgages are settled long before the maturity. And the risk of default (and the downside exposure) drops off sharply long before then, anyway. Also, you need to understand that yield curves and credit spreads are deduced mathematically from the market. The black-ops think-tank you are envisaging - brainstorming about the state of the world in 2040 and adjusting projections accordingly - just doesn't exist.