Brexit View

[JoeLeg]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> In one word,will Brexit happen?

Yes.

I'd love to embrace the idea that somehow we can turn this around, but it's just not going to be like that. A50 has been triggered, and there's waaaaay too much momentum behind leaving to allow any u-turns now.

I don't think it'll bring down the govt, I don't think it'll be stopped. I think it'll be a fudge, and compromise, and I think in the end no one will be really happy with what we get.

I hope that, now we're in it, those responsible can make something good of it. But on the evidence so far I'm not convinced. Today again we've got headlines about 'Remainer Universities' (Daily Hate of course) and Rees-Mogg piping up again morning about Carney. The polarisation continues, and that's what scares me most.

[malumbu]

A new word was coined yesterday - Brexit Botherers - those of us who have so try to sort out the mess, and understand some of the lunacy (or perhaps more appropriately the lunatics). Got to laugh, or otherwise you'd cry.

[JohnL]

"Ex-attorney general Dominic Grieve, leading attempts to reshape the PM?s Brexit plans, later said Britain may have to extend its EU membership beyond March 2019 to allow time for a final deal to be properly ratified by Parliament."

"The Independent understands that Ms May had been angry at having to fire-fight problems created by Mr Davis as she prepared for her weekly PMQs session."

Ms May :)

Thats the way I see of Brexit not happening. Temporary extensions (to A50 I assume is meant) - differing from a transition period then an election.

[red devil]

Probably.

The proviso being the Irish Border conundrum. Again it was hardly mentioned in yesterday's quizzing of Davis. Very strange.

I don't think the triggering of A50 means it's a fait accompli. Only this week Juncker said that the outcome, be it No Deal, Deal or No Brexit was in the UK's hands, so I'm sure it's a case of if there's the will to cancel Brexit, there's a way. Even before A50 was triggered I remember someone in the EU (Verhofstadt?) saying he could foresee a scenario whereby the UK left the EU on a Friday pm as per A50, but by Monday am we had been reinstated.

However, to cancel Brexit there does need to be a sea change in public opinion, and although there's been a slight shift in the polls towards Remain, it needs to be more...

[JoeLeg]

That's the crux of it. Those who voted Leave have been so emboldened by what they see as the triumph of their will that I honestly believe to renege on Brexit would be to allow UKIP (and God knows who else) into parliament .

Almost every Leave voter I've spoken with (almost) has displayed the opinion that the 48% lost and therefore don't count any more. There seems to be a collective will amongst them to ignore Remainers and label them traitors and fools. Victory has suffused them with a heady sense of destiny and I genuinely think it would be disastrous if they didn't get their Brexit. Of course whatever we get isn't going to please all of them.

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Thats the way I see of Brexit not happening.

> Temporary extensions (to A50 I assume is meant) -

> differing from a transition period then an

> election.

That would be a possibility, except Labour is just as clueless and rudderless as the Tories in regard to Brexit. If they could dump Corbyn and get Sadiq Khan at the helm, there would be hope. But that's not going to happen. The Corbynites are just as hopeless and hapless as the Brexiters.

Sometimes I long for the days (not too long go) when Labour and Tories fought for the centre ground. Now there seems to be a competition which can go rabidly furthermost out to the extremes.

[red devil]

I don't buy into the scaremongering theory that if Brexit didn't happen there would be huge civil unrest. For a start the core Brexit voter i.e. the over 65's, is simply not the type to 'revolt'. Also, only 12 months before the referendum people could've voted for Brexit at the 2015 election by voting for UKIP, but they only got 12.5% of the vote, way short of the Brexit referendum vote. That's because when it comes to elections people tend to vote with the bigger picture in mind, not a binary single issue which the referendum created. I don't doubt some Brexiteers would run into the arms of UKIP, but no where near enough in numbers to be of huge political consequence.

If there's anything positive to come out of this whole sorry mess it's that we'll probably never hold another referendum again...

[JohnL]

Loz Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Thats the way I see of Brexit not happening.

> > Temporary extensions (to A50 I assume is meant)

> -

> > differing from a transition period then an

> > election.

>

> That would be a possibility, except Labour is just

> as clueless and rudderless as the Tories in regard

> to Brexit. If they could dump Corbyn and get

> Sadiq Khan at the helm, there would be hope. But

> that's not going to happen. The Corbynites are

> just as hopeless and hapless as the Brexiters.

>

> Sometimes I long for the days (not too long go)

> when Labour and Tories fought for the centre

> ground. Now there seems to be a competition which

> can go rabidly furthermost out to the extremes.

Ed Milliband and Ed Balls at the dispatch box during PMQs

I was one of the few that liked that combination

But then Ed ate a bacon sandwich :(

[JoeLeg]

I don't think it'll be civil unrest, or anything of the sort. Talking about a large swath of the population which now feels entitled to Brexit (leaving aside the fact that they have a widely disparate view of what that actually means), and they're backed vociferously by parts of the media. They aren't going to take a reverse ferret on this lying down.

As for the rest of it, I hope you're right, I really do. The viciousness with which I've seen most Leavers behave makes me think otherwise, but I'll hope for your assessment to be more accurate than mine.

[JohnL]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> I don't think it'll be civil unrest, or anything

> of the sort. Talking about a large swath of the

> population which now feels entitled to Brexit

> (leaving aside the fact that they have a widely

> disparate view of what that actually means), and

> they're backed vociferously by parts of the media.

> They aren't going to take a reverse ferret on this

> lying down.

>

> As for the rest of it, I hope you're right, I

> really do. The viciousness with which I've seen

> most Leavers behave makes me think otherwise, but

> I'll hope for your assessment to be more accurate

> than mine.

The country just seems angrier IMHO

Express newspapers is about to get taken out by Trinity Mirror (if they can sort out the pension issue) that'll be one down (I'd put in Campbell as Editor :) ). The Sun has U turned before. The Telegraph and Mail will never shut up though.

[red devil]

The Express was pro-Labour/Blair at one point, then when a knighthood wasn't forthcoming to editor Desmond it went the other way. Gotta love our freedom of the press...

[JohnL]

Whats Davis on about now. Has he decided he wants to be sacked too ?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-does-not-know-how-brexit-will-hit-economy-david-davis-says-a3668491.html

[red devil]

I'm surprised there hasn't been some sort of leak of these reports, as it could be of benefit to both sides depending on what the reports say (it's not unusual for a leak to be deliberate). My cynical mind says if the reports aren't damning of Brexit, then there would've been a leak by now, to balance all the flak and bad news May and the Breixteers have been getting recently...

[Alan Medic]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> In one word,will Brexit happen?

Yes.

It just feels like it has to happen to lance the boil. As RD mentioned, I've no idea how they will deal with the Irish border problem. You can't work this out with rational thought as the whole thing is irrational.

[Jenny1]

red devil Wrote:

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> I don't buy into the scaremongering theory that if

> Brexit didn't happen there would be huge civil

> unrest.

Of course there wouldn't! The very suggestion is just part of the ongoing post referendum 'Leave' campaign.

But I don't think any kind of remotely favourable 'transition' deal is possible. The MEPs from the remaining 27 wouldn't agree it.

[red devil]

Word of the week...Handsy

[Alan Medic]

Very unusual for me to visit two local places in the same day, one to buy shoes and the other for a haircut.In both cases I was served by delightful people with foreign accents. I have one myself but as English is my first language I doubt they could distinguish mine from an English one.

Having a nice rapport with both people and being of a curious nature, I normally wouldn't think twice about asking them where they were from. But this time I did, simply because of Brexit and some of the horror stories I seen or read about how 'forreners' have been treated. I was afraid I might make them feel uncomfortable.

I took the plunge and asked them anyway, with no harm done. A Frenchwoman who loves it here (I should have known that accent) and an Albanian with a great sense of humour. I'm just wondering if any anyone else has had a similar degree of feeling uncomfortable because of Brexit? Am I being too sensitive about it?

[JohnL]

red devil Wrote:

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> Word of the week...Handsy

and handsy claims his first victim.

It's almost classic self fulfilling prophecy - why did he resign - we don't know but he wouldn't have resigned if he didn't do something.

[Dog duck]

Fallon his sword...

[Seabag]

Dog duck Wrote:

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> Fallon his sword...

What was acceptable ten years ago that isn't now?

[Blah Blah]

He clearly has something in his past he wants to stay in his past.

[JohnL]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> He clearly has something in his past he wants to

> stay in his past.

There was a well known tale of how he had to be pulled away from a Russian agent whilst drunk

But that's not what he's hiding as it's in the pub;ic record.

https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/12/11/visibly-drunk-michael-fallon-had-to-be-forcibly-separated-from-attractive-russian-spy-by-a-minder/

[Nigello]

Alan

You are being too sensitive - as well as condescending. Why shouldn't they like it (or even hate it) here, or have a good sense of humour (or not) any more than anyone else who lives in London?

I am sure these people, who have had the wherewithal to learn a foreign language and gain and secure employment in a megacity, don't need your guilt complex. It's just too sentimentalist.

[red devil]

I reckon one of the Sunday's will run an expos? on him, a lot juicier than a bit of handsy...

[Loz]

Blah Blah Wrote:

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> He clearly has something in his past he wants to stay in his past.

Not going to happen. Because at the moment it looks that he's lost his job for an incident that even Julia Hartley-Brewer is saying is trivial. Either more has to come out, or May is going to look like she has massively over-reacted.