Brexit View

[Jenny1]

Cox's substantive view is that 'the legal risk remains unchanged'.

[Jenny1]

...not that you'd know that from the current 'breaking' BBC headline. Do your job, people!

[Loutwo]

There is also no evidence that the EU will extend article 50 if this falls tonight and parliament vote in favour of preventing ?no deal?.

Louisa.

[Jenny1]

No. And any extension beyond May 24th will be on condition that we take part in European elections. It's been clear for a while that that would be necessary if we wanted more time, but too few MPs are awake to this fact. But then, too few of them are awake, full stop.

Edited to correct date - that should be May 23rd ofcourse.

[JohnL]

Sky News every hour makes it sound much much worse for Theresa May

Some big twitter voices claiming possible GE

[JohnL]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> There is also no evidence that the EU will extend

> article 50 if this falls tonight and parliament

> vote in favour of preventing ?no deal?.

>

> Louisa.

We can revoke A50 in an emergency scenario. Vince Cable (I know :) ) sees this as a genuine possibility.

EU will extend for a General Election or a Peoples Vote.

[JohnL]

Labour have issues - but Keir Starmer and colleagues are playing this well.

[JohnL]

Flashing up on screens now "ERG says vote against"

The PM has failed it seems (although we've said that before).

[Loutwo]

A third attempt at this vote would open up more questions about democracy. If it is not passed today, I think it becomes far easier for people to question why this can?t be handed back to the people to take control of the situation. We have a few simple choices to make, the deal or remain.

Louisa.

[Alan Medic]

Wonder will May resign when defeated tonight? She should do.

[Jenny1]

I don't think so. I suspect this is just another phase in the ongoing war of attrition. This potential timeline (see below) seems like a probable outcome. If it's correct then TM is only aiming to peel off a few more Withdrawal Agreement opponents today, knowing that she can hold a larger gun to everyone's heads as May 24th approaches, and thus get the WA passed at that point. I see reports that approx 13 previous Tory refuseniks are already indicating they'll be backing her in the vote this evening.

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/12/no-fudge-no-unicorns-may-s-new-deal-is-total-failure

[JoeLeg]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> A third attempt at this vote would open up more

> questions about democracy. If it is not passed

> today, I think it becomes far easier for people to

> question why this can?t be handed back to the

> people to take control of the situation. We have a

> few simple choices to make, the deal or remain.

>

> Louisa.

There?s a lot of people who would also want No Deal to be on the ballot.

[Alan Medic]

No time to read that currently, but on what basis is the extension granted?

[Jenny1]

It's based on a letter from Juncker to Tusk yesterday saying that Brexit must be wrapped up by the time of European Elections in May. This suggests there may be flexibility for an extension up to that point (on basis of something substantial being done in the UK to justify it presumably). Although clearly both EU and UK side would see a longer extension as being more helpful the assumption is that UK politicians aren't ready to do what would be necessary to achieve that longer extension - ie participate in EU parliamentary elections in May.

[carlafindle]

I feel sick...

[Jenny1]

Yep. Nausea would seem an appropriate response.

On the timeline thoughts above. I know there have been differing views on how 'sacrosanct' UK participation in the EU elections in May is. Suggestions have been made that some kind of compromise, allowing for non-participation, could be reached if the UK were engaged in a referendum on the WA or a GE in the interim. This would mean that an extension to A50 beyond May 23rd would become possible. However there does seem to have been a hardening of legal views recently to suggest that the EU Parliament would not be legally constituted in these circumstances.

[JohnL]

Ed Milliband - Will you come back so we can make some chaos together :)

[Seabag]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Ed Milliband - Will you come back so we can make

> some chaos together :)

Can you imagine Ed?s voice talking across the house, and PMTM with her scratchy voice talking back. It?d make marvellous radio.

[Sephiroth]

except that would never happen

If Ed was leader of Labour, 2017 election would have been Labour's and May would be gone by now

[JohnL]

May and Corbyn at it like two ferrets in a sack (one with a bad voice). It isn't a good look really.

[Sue]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> If Ed was leader of Labour, 2017 election would

> have been Labour's

I very much doubt that!

[diable rouge]

I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop saying that today's big vote, if won, would take No Deal off the table. It won't. It would confirm that there's a majority that don't want ND, but legally it's still there. The only way to remove the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or Revoke A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the legal default of ND from one date to another...

[JohnL]

Spreadsheet Phil Hammond doing a good job of talking down No Deal now - but it'll just inflame the crazies :)

[Sephiroth]

I dunno Sue - he came close in 2015 and it was a surprise that that the population reversed their opinion at last minute

Given what transpired between 2015 and 2017 I'd bet good money if Ed had stayed and steadied the ship, Labour would have won handsomely

Then again, if I was leading the Labour party, I'd do a better job than the current imbecile

[Alan Medic]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop

> saying that today's big vote, if won, would take

> No Deal off the table. It won't. It would confirm

> that there's a majority that don't want ND, but

> legally it's still there. The only way to remove

> the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or Revoke

> A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the

> legal default of ND from one date to another...

From what I read the UK won't get an extension.