Brexit View

[robbin]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> I dunno Sue - he came close in 2015 and it was a

> surprise that that the population reversed their

> opinion at last minute...

>

Hmmm, was it? Maybe this monumental misjudgement contributed something - as it was just 5 days before the election?

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/dec/22/the-ed-stone-ed-milibands-monumental-folly-labour-election-limestone

[JohnL]

I always thoughtthe election was influenced a little by this type of pre-election promise Cameron made (50% + discounts on buying your home if you rent from a housing association. "Those in flats will get a 50 per cent discount, plus an extra 2 per cent for every year of occupation."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/570310/David-Cameron-home-ownership-scheme-working-people

The reality was this (between 9K and 16K discount) and the scheme failed

https://www.ownyourhome.gov.uk/scheme/right-to-acquire/

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I wish politicians and pundits alike would stop

> > saying that today's big vote, if won, would

> take

> > No Deal off the table. It won't. It would

> confirm

> > that there's a majority that don't want ND, but

> > legally it's still there. The only way to

> remove

> > the threat of ND is either to agree a WA or

> Revoke

> > A50. An extension to A50 would merely move the

> > legal default of ND from one date to another...

>

>

> From what I read the UK won't get an extension.

>

>

> https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/11058126

> 67384635392

A few people have suggested that may force parliament to ask TM to revoke A50.

[diable rouge]

Banks/Wigmore's shenanigans enabling A50 to be revoked...oh the irony.

[Blah Blah]

Yep and that might be what is forced to happen. Rumours say that Farage and Banks have locked at least Poland and Hungary into refusing an extension of A50. Well if no deal is taken off the table then only a revoke is left to avoid the no deal. Personally, I think the commission per se are mightier than Banks and Farage and think some kind of extension will be agreed, but it might by set at a year at least with us expected to participate in MEP elections. Worth remembering that both Hungary and Poland benefit greatly from EU funding paid for by the leading five contributors, and they have been leaned on to play ball before over this fact.

[JohnL]

I think the leaders of countries like that might say different when they get to an EU summit than when they're with Banks and Farage down the pub (assuming the EU leaders are pushing an extension - and that means a genuine reason - note that a genuine reason if May's vote had passed would be to get the laws related to it through parliament) :)

I also note that Kay Burley said to Michael Heseltine the polls hadn't changed then comes a Sky report from Derby which was 58% leave that the latest poll this weekend was 61% remain (comment: we don't totally trust in polls anymore)

[JohnL]

Chaos Absolute Chaos

Theresa May says there will be a long extension.

Corbyn says he will take control :)

[malumbu]

Warning - Remoaner alert.

I saw some MP from Essex urging MPs to vote against the no no vote. This would be a betrayal of democracy following the public's decision to leave the EU. Which got me thinking about the 48% who have had no proper representation by those who want to 'respect' democracy. Plenty to think about on the cycle home.

So firstly the PM is not acting as a democrat but an autocrat. Not my original thought.

But what other government would not care about a sizeable percentage of the population, with a high proportion of professionals, intellectuals artisans and the type (pomposity alert I also warn you). A crass comparison (and I am sure that you can also draw from Stalin), Pol Pot.

The Khmer Rouge wanted to eliminate the professional classes, the current UK one wants to alienate many of them. KR wanted to take the country back to year zero. This government back to the 1950s. KR wanted to move to an agrarian economy. This one both secondary and primary production. OK all in bad taste, and probably replace 'the government' by some hard line Brexiteers.

Anyway back to democracy - great statement by Benn about parliament asserted democracy. And dare I say Corbo came over decent.

So back to my issue - government has not worked with pragmatic remainers (unless May is one) to come to a solution. Sadly my money is on her getting the third vote through.

[Alan Medic]

May can have a 3rd MV or even a 4th, but she must respect the will of the British people from 3 years ago. Yeah right.

Corbyn playing silly buggers with two weeks to go. What does he hope to achieve? He should be supporting a 2nd referendum as was agreed at the Labour conference.

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> May can have a 3rd MV or even a 4th, but she must

> respect the will of the British people from 3

> years ago. Yeah right.

>

Bercow has said he will speak on this - technically you cannot bring the same motion again and again. It would be brave of him to tell her No.

ERG (those interviewed) still saying they'll vote against as "Mays deal is not Brexit"

[robbin]

malumbu Wrote:

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> Warning - Remoaner alert.

>

> ...So firstly the PM is not acting as a democrat but

> an autocrat. Not my original thought.

>

> But what other government would not care about a

> sizeable percentage of the population, with a high

> proportion of professionals, intellectuals

> artisans and the type (pomposity alert I also warn

> you). A crass comparison (and I am sure that you

> can also draw from Stalin), Pol Pot.

>

> The Khmer Rouge wanted to eliminate the

> professional classes, the current UK one wants to

> alienate many of them. KR wanted to take the

> country back to year zero. This government back to

> the 1950s. KR wanted to move to an agrarian

> economy. This one both secondary and primary

> production. OK all in bad taste, and probably

> replace 'the government' by some hard line

> Brexiteers.

>

Yes, that is both crass and in bad taste (not to mention it being a manifestly absurd comparison). Somewhat disrespectful to the 1.8 million people murdered by Pol Pot, too.

Talk about losing perspective!

[robbin]

The problem with May's deal is it scuppers ANY chance of negotiating a trade deal with the EU, other than one that will cause the UK damage.

[diable rouge]

Indeed, with all the focus pre-MV2 on the Backstop, that seems to have been lost. May's deal puts us over a negotiating barrel, if Brexiters think the EU have been tough up until now, they ain't seen nothing yet...

[robbin]

That is because of the backstop. The media have focussed on the Irish border point but the structure of the WA and political declaration is such that it would render negotiations on the UK's side impossible. The arbitration procedure could never in reality be invoked to enable the UK to leave the backstop, because of the (stated) conditions that have to be met before the arbitrators could or would find in the UK's favour. Those conditions are so broad and in such terms that permit the EU to insist on pretty much anything they want in the trade negotiations(provided it is not dishonest/in bad faith) without engaging the conditions necessary for the UK to leave the backstop.

The upshot of that is that once the WA becomes effective the EU will know that it does not have to do a trade deal with the UK and the UK will have to stay in the backstop/CU indefinitely. The ONLY way for the UK to get out of it would be to agree whatever the EU requires on a trade deal (i.e. full fishery rights as before). In other words the UK would have no negotiation power of any sort whatsoever. As I read the WA the position is that stark. The UK would undoubtedly be better off staying in the EU than taking May's deal - it would positively harm the country (and for the long term).

Does anyone who has actually read these crucial documents that so much is being posted about, disagree or construe the documents differently?

[JohnL]

ANy thoughts on the "Common Market 2.0" being put forward by Letwin/Kinnock and a few others.

[Angelina]

TM has taken it down to the wire and left the ultimate choice to be her deal as it stands (with the legal risks of tying UK into subservience to the will of the EU) or No Deal.

An extension does not offer any further choices.

So - as it is when we vote - the choice will be Which Do You Want Least? rather than which do you actually WANT

[JohnL]

Angelina Wrote:

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> TM has taken it down to the wire and left the

> ultimate choice to be her deal as it stands (with

> the legal risks of tying UK into subservience to

> the will of the EU) or No Deal.

>

> An extension does not offer any further choices.

>

> So - as it is when we vote - the choice will be

> Which Do You Want Least? rather than which do you

> actually WANT

This is Mays fault - she should have reached out both to other parties and Remainers long ago. Whatever the EU says I'm sure they know this.

Anyway the ERG and a minority in the country have now decided that NO Deal is the only real Brexit - that wasn't the case at the beginning or before the referendum and she's let that view build purposely for her own benefit.

[Angelina]

Even IF TM had collaborated at the onset, there is a chance but no promise that this would have progressed more smoothly - and agreement in our own Parliament achieved. It's debatable.

The second challenge would be to get this agreement signed off with the EU - and the scale of our shoddiness in terms of negotiation skills would not have met this challenge (unless it was on the EU terms, whcih is where we are now).

There is no point is looking at who is to blame and what could have been done.

TM will leave the stage once this is finished - she will wash her hands of it - there will be continuity and no responsibility for it (whatever it is) going forward.

[JohnL]

LOL @ The Speaker annoying ERG today

Refuses to pick the amendment that rules out a 2nd Referendum

Picks one saying Theresa May can't put her deal again.

I'll miss Bercow when he goes.

[Angelina]

So if we're allowed a second referendum, but TM's deal is off the table, what will the votes be for?

Leave the EU without a Deal

Stay in the EU

How can it be for anything else? they can't have an option for a new WA, as how would that be achieved?

They may as well not bother and just say we're staying, but of course - they can't as it was a democratic vote to Leave...

[JohnL]

Angelina Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Even IF TM had collaborated at the onset, there is

> a chance but no promise that this would have

> progressed more smoothly - and agreement in our

> own Parliament achieved. It's debatable.

>

> The second challenge would be to get this

> agreement signed off with the EU - and the scale

> of our shoddiness in terms of negotiation skills

> would not have met this challenge (unless it was

> on the EU terms, whcih is where we are now).

>

> There is no point is looking at who is to blame

> and what could have been done.

>

> TM will leave the stage once this is finished -

> she will wash her hands of it - there will be

> continuity and no responsibility for it (whatever

> it is) going forward.

I really have no idea who is fit to become PM.

Tories (sorry for the derogatory remarks): Definitely not Boris J not fit IMHO, Gove is a little squirt, Hunt is a ****, Javid I don't trust. Ken Clarke - Maybe I would but too old, Raab no gravitas. Lidington - better than some.

Labour: People supporting Corbyn say like Clem Attlee he can pick a team around him. McDonnell is good on TV. If you're a centrist maybe Yvette Cooper - she's good at questioning May. Whats all the support for Jess Phillips recently ? Keir Starmer: maybe could do it :)

[JohnL]

Angelina Wrote:

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> So if we're allowed a second referendum, but TM's

> deal is off the table, what will the votes be

> for?

No deal can't be there - everyone sane thinks it would be a disaster.

If Mays deal goes or voted down again I think you'd need some kind of EFTA/EEA option for 5 years with further options decided down the road.

[Angelina]

ok, so a 2nd Referendum would not include options for No Deal and would not include options for TM Deal..

So - only would be vote to stay in EU.

A one-box vote? That would mean it's based purely on HOW MANY PEOPLE turn out to vote - if it's more than do not. That is absurd.

[JohnL]

If you count EEA/EFTA as staying.

For me no freedom of movement is a large loss and also a future PM once we are parked in EFTA/EEA/Customs Union could move us further away from the EU (that's how I originally always saw the exit going once we left - a gradual parting).

[JohnL]

I forgot Hammond above - he's making his typically cautious move :)

"Chancellor Philip Hammond said that although he backed Mrs May?s deal, ?other options? should be considered at the same time in the House of Commons."