Brexit View

[carlafindle]

.

[robbin]

I think that anyone voting to back May's 'deal' is either lacking in basic intelligence and/or is negligently lazy(because they have not read and/or understood the two documents) or is consciously putting other interests before those of the country. It is indefensible and I remain surprised that commentators have not picked up on the point I mentioned above - I suppose it is easier for them to stress the simpler to understand concept of the Irish border, but the real killer about the deal is the fact that it will prevent a properly negotiated free trade deal.

[Angelina]

You have to ask why they would not be picking up on that.

It's hidden in the legalities and should be made absolutely clear that the implications are restrictive.

It may be that the public are not expected to understand that (or if you are capable, you will do your own research).

The TM agreement is dangerous for the UK and would leave us far worse off than we are now. I don't see how anyone would endorse it (unless you're in the EU.....)

And if it's a choice between no deal and TM deal then the risks need to be very very clear. Something which is lacking in the mainstream media.

[JohnL]

robbin Wrote:

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> I think that anyone voting to back May's 'deal' is

> either lacking in basic intelligence and/or is

> negligently lazy(because they have not read and/or

> understood the two documents) or is consciously

> putting other interests before those of the

> country. It is indefensible and I remain

> surprised that commentators have not picked up on

> the point I mentioned above - I suppose it is

> easier for them to stress the simpler to

> understand concept of the Irish border, but the

> real killer about the deal is the fact that it

> will prevent a properly negotiated free trade

> deal.

All TM cares about is stopping FOM and escaping the ECHR.

There must be a reason for that.

[teddyboy23]

Any one out there related to guy Fawkes if you fancy another bash and do us all a favour.

[JohnL]

it's not just parliament

4:08 PM

Latest from Cabinet

Theresa May raised concerns about frequency & scale of leaks from Cabinet

4:10 PM

May "went batshit" at Remain rebels

Clark's effort to defend himself "ended badly"

Rudd "bashful".

So obviously journalists on both Leave and Remain Whatsapp groups.

[JohnL]

Benn amendment defeated 314 - 312

Mays deal done and dusted really

[Sue]

:(

[diable rouge]

Why do you say that John?...

[malumbu]

Probably because she will keep coming back using long extension (or if EU don't allow an extension, therefore alternative is no deal) as leverage. Is this too simplistic? It may all be interesting as an academic study/making history/uncharted territory but boy does this depress me and it is real people's lives that will be for the worse. Anyway don't answer the second point.

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Why do you say that John?...

My gut reaction to the loss of the Benn amendment as I left work LOL - there's still a lot to go but any motions in parliament will now come through the government and be worded as such.

[diable rouge]

True, but as Benn said yesterday, they will have another chance if May's deal is voted down again next Mon/Tues. Winning the Benn amendment wouldn't have made any difference in that respect as it would've kicked in on Wed. In fact there's a good argument that not winning the Benn amendment was a blessing in disguise, as had it won it could've spooked the ERG May's deal refusniks ahead of MV3. It's all about timings now, I also think Labour did the right thing not backing the 2nd Ref amendment yesterday...

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> True, but as Benn said yesterday, they will have

> another chance if May's deal is voted down again

> next Mon/Tues. Winning the Benn amendment wouldn't

> have made any difference in that respect as it

> would've kicked in on Wed. In fact there's a good

> argument that not winning the Benn amendment was a

> blessing in disguise, as had it won it could've

> spooked the ERG May's deal refusniks ahead of MV3.

> It's all about timings now, I also think Labour

> did the right thing not backing the 2nd Ref

> amendment yesterday...

Silver lining.

I thought the 2nd Ref amendment should have been pulled - apparently caused a bit of a spat between Labour and the Tiggers.

[Blah Blah]

Everything depends on May's third attempt with her deal now. Basically she is trying to squeeze her own party into backing her, all of them.

So next Wednesday, either Parliament backs her deal, and we seek a three month extension for getting required legislation through (and we leave on June 30th).

or

Parliament rejects her deal and we enter the MEP elections and seek something like a two year extension to figure out some cross party agreed kind of deal that is then put back to the people.

Farage's hopes of finding a member state to veto have been shot down as Italy, Hungary and Poland have all said no to him. So I think it is safe to say that no deal is now off the table.

The EU has said it would agree to extensions but the longer one would have to have something like a 2nd ref at the end of it to make sure a final decision is made, one way or the other.

So, my guess is that the vote next Wednesday will be narrower, but will still be defeated. Even with the DUP and the ERG on board, May would still be behind. It only takes a handful of MPs in her party to reject the deal to lose the vote and nothing significant has been changed in the deal itself.

Suffice to say that there were some very angry UKIP protestors outside Parliament on Thursday night, but not in any kind of numbers that suggests civil disorder is coming. I think most people are so exhausted by the process now that an ambivalence is returning.

[Seabag]

From The Times today.

?May is at the mercy of a ?gang of 15? Brexiteer MPs who won?t budge, including a ?suicide squad? of around 10 plotting to vote with Labour in any no-confidence motion. If the Tories lost such a vote they would have 14 days to install a new leader or Jeremy Corbyn could become prime minister?

May knows the Tory party will become the Toxic party if she fails to get this through. If Brexit ?doesn?t happen and the division in this country over ?the will of the people? not being carried out, then it will be the direct actions of the Tories that caused it. The whole sorry idea from Cameron?s permatanned butternut squash of a head, through to a stupid country dividing referendum, then the very people who insist that ?Brexit will be Brexit? or some other dogs dinner of a phrase, can?t actually carry out the instructions of a f*cked up democracy.

May knows she?ll go down as one of the biggest failings in political history, along with the ERG and their likes. They?ll have failed for all their guff to deliver anything other than chaos.

It?s been and still is, a fascinating time in history and politics. I?m sure we?ll discuss Ye Olde Brexit for years to come, in between endless series of Master Chef and the Voice.

[cella]

When you say "will become toxic..." think that ship sailed many moons ago.

[diable rouge]

So it's Day 2 of the 'epic march', with reports saying the numbers are now in the 70's...including press.

Meanwhile, Nige's trotters must be playing up after walking all those hundreds of feet yesterday, as he's nowhere to be seen...#swillofthepeople

[Alan Medic]

Nige has been doing his LBC radio show this morning.

[Seabag]

cella Wrote:

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> When you say "will become toxic..." think that

> ship sailed many moons ago.

That it has yes, but meet my in-laws and you?re in need of a hose down and decontamination. Ardent Mayites are a breed of their own.

When reminding them of just how ?insert expletive here? the party are, you get the O.D.D knee jerk ? Ha!-so you?d rather have Jeremy Corbyn running the country then??

At which point you go to answer and you?re something measured about improving politics, but instead you get run down by a whole download of rhetoric, which come at you as fast as a croupier can shuffle and deal a deck of cards.

It?s hopeless, but I do get to escape, which is good.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppositional_defiant_disorder

*

[malumbu]

Your in-laws seem simpler to work out than mine (sister's hubby) . The Head Brexiter is also a big fan of Corbyn which confuses me, as the in-law's politics seem more akin to UKIP (and certainly not Lexit). Confused or what. Doubt if he's on the march though (Brexit discussions have to avoided for the sake of some sort of family peace). I think he just likes stirring things up without caring of the outcome. Maybe there are many out there like that.

[malumbu]

Oh and back to Farage - I was interviewed for work years ago on LBC. To do with consumer protection. I wanted to start off with a comment that "I didn't know that they still existed". It was a station that my relatives listened to in the 70s, and I thought it had gone off air when they made a poor joke about Pope John Paul 1 died in 1978 after only days in office. Is it transmitted just in the outer Boroughs and home counties?

[diable rouge]

'Epic march' update. The march has had to take a 5-mile detour because a bridge on the original route closes on Sundays. Poor loves, it's not like Brexiters to come up with an idea then not have a plan to carry it out...

[Blah Blah]

Follow these guys for updates on the 'Epic march', or rather the electronic billboards they are placing on the route relaying the Brexit lies back at the marchers, plus some of Nige's best tweets back at him ;)

[JohnL]

'Led By Donkeys' seem to have come out of nowhere - but they certainly know how to publicise LOL.

Just noted "Hi folks - do you know anyone who works at @OceanOutdoorUK? " - Ocean is an independent media company specialising in super premium digital out of home screens.

They're not going to stop then :)

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

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> 'Led By Donkeys' seem to have come out of nowhere

> - but they certainly know how to publicise LOL.

I think they've been around a while (I made an oblique reference to them a couple of months ago... https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?20,1833347,1999858#msg-1999858), the 'epic march' stunts have been very good, especially the one where Farage is on the bus...