Brexit View

[diable rouge]

3800...

[JohnL]

Labour has been hacked - obviously by the Russians (or some other nefarious group)

and Boris still won't release the data

[dulwichbloke]

It is reported that it was just a DDoS hack, so most unlike a state sponsored event.

[JohnL]

dulwichbloke Wrote:

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> It is reported that it was just a DDoS hack, so

> most unlike a state sponsored event.

There was a bit of taking the mickey in my post as Owen Jones's twitter reaction was "This is extremely sinister" :).

In other news latest Survation poll has the Tory lead down to 6 now - but Mr Farage's unilateral deal not included in those figures and not sure of the effect of what he's done.

[dulwichbloke]

YouGov yesterday gave a 14 point lead - with polling done after the Brexit Party announcement.

[diable rouge]

Survation were the closest pollsters in the 2017 GE, doesn't mean they will be again, but YouGov pols have a rep for being outliers, they predicted a 7% lead for the Tories but it was only 2.5%...

[dulwichbloke]

True. YouGov tend to be on the high side. The Survation poll was rendered largely irrelevant though as it was before the Farage decision to pull candidates.

[diable rouge]

I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical voting, which you're going to see a lot of in this GE. The fact is the Tories need to gain seats, the BXP pulling out of seats the Tories already hold doesn't add to the gains needed, in fact the reality is that they are likely to lose a number of them to the Lib Dems and SNP regardless. So that leaves the Labour held marginals where the Tories have to make their gains, yet the BXP has said they won't pull out of these seats...

[stepdown]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be

> difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical

> voting, which you're going to see a lot of

If you poll voting intention it includes tactical voting considerations, they don't ask "which party best aligns with your politics" after all. To get an estimate of the seats you just poll a sample from each constituency.

The only hard bit is making sure your sample is representative.

[JohnL]

stepdown Wrote:

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> diable rouge Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be

> > difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical

> > voting, which you're going to see a lot of

>

> If you poll voting intention it includes tactical

> voting considerations, they don't ask "which party

> best aligns with your politics" after all. To get

> an estimate of the seats you just poll a sample

> from each constituency.

>

> The only hard bit is making sure your sample is

> representative.

They then put the results of the poll through an algorithm (how likely is a 20 year old to vote, how likely is an 80 year old etc.). The algorithms differ by polling organisation.

[diable rouge]

Algorithms shmalgorithms...

[stepdown]

JohnL Wrote:

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> They then put the results of the poll through an

> algorithm (how likely is a 20 year old to vote,

> how likely is an 80 year old etc.). The

> algorithms differ by polling organisation.

True, but I still see that as a way of ensuring the sample is representative. In a way what you're doing is weighting the various demographics so that it reflects the "voting" population.

[TheCat]

Man, what shitty situation we find ourselves in, in the UK. The only realistic two choices for our next Prime Minister are a rock (our lying, self-serving, flexibly principled current prime minister) and a hard place (a well meaning, highly principled fellow, who's laudable desire to make society more equitable is over shadowed by the fact that his economic policies will have the unintended consequence of completely destroying the UK economy). I'm open to ideas here?

I suppose I always have my Aussie passport as a backup....:)

[hammerman]

Interested to see who would be your choice then as somebody who has an Australian passport?

[malumbu]

Aussie politics aren't exactly admirable, or green policies. It's a statement of fact rather than having a go.

[dulwichbloke]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Survation were the closest pollsters in the 2017

> GE, doesn't mean they will be again, but YouGov

> pols have a rep for being outliers, they predicted

> a 7% lead for the Tories but it was only 2.5%...

Survation is now putting the lead at 14 points and DeltaPoll 15 points.

[Earl Aelfheah]

It's possible Johnson's government may win a large majority, but Johnson himself lose his seat.

[JohnL]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> It's possible Johnson's government may win a large

> majority, but Johnson himself lose his seat.

I'm sure he'd then make himself a Lord and rule from the Lords :)

[DulwichFox]

JohnL Wrote:

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> rahrahrah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It's possible Johnson's government may win a

> large

> > majority, but Johnson himself lose his seat.

>

>

> I'm sure he'd then make himself a Lord and rule

> from the Lords :)

Johnson would seem to be 'Lords' material

But then I can see The House of Lords being abolished.

DulwichFox

[JohnL]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > rahrahrah Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > It's possible Johnson's government may win a

> > large

> > > majority, but Johnson himself lose his seat.

> >

> >

> > I'm sure he'd then make himself a Lord and rule

> > from the Lords :)

>

> Johnson would seem to be 'Lords' material

>

> But then I can see The House of Lords being

> abolished.

>

> DulwichFox

We agree there - I'd hope there is some reform in lots of constitutional areas in the next few years.

[carlafindle]

Knorr have launched a new stock cube for Brexit. It's called Laughing Stock.

[Captain Marvel]

Good to see you back in the harness Carla

[dulwichbloke]

Seamus Milne must have been cringing at the audience laughing heartily at Corbyn as for the third time he clumsily avoided answering the most basic of questions "after you have negotiated a fresh agreement with the EU and you call a second referendum, would you campaign to Leave or Remain?"

He finished with a flourish - "I've made my Brexit position clear" - cue more laughter...

For a moment there, he seemed to be sweating almost as much as Prince Andrew.

[cella]

The loudest laughter was reserved for Johnson on any trust issues.

[JohnL]

Official FactCheckerUK: Boris was absolutely brilliant, Corbyn was useless.

(very small print) FactcheckerUK is run by the Conservative Party Press.