Pro Cuts Rally Today 14/05

[Chippy Minton]

You're right, it was a flippant comment, although I was kind of trying to make the point that stable and manageable debt doesn't necessarily make a country appealing to live in!

I think I've made my view on the government's austerity measures on this forum pretty clear http://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?27,618131,618131#msg-618131

[Loz]

Chippy Minton Wrote:

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> Loz - help me out then, electricity was up 14.1%

> and gas 19.8% up last year. My fuel costs also

> went up by 9.4% and Mrs Minton's season ticket

> this month has also increased by above inflation.

> As a smart shopper where would you recommend I

> find some bargains that buck these increases?

Do you read posts? I said those sorts of things were up, but there lots of good deals out there in goods and services. I've got my broadband and Sky costs down with a phone call, supermarket specials abound and as for big ticket household items...

But, as you ask, when did you last check/change your gas and electricity supplier? Are you on the best deal?

[Chippy Minton]

2011 - Food up 3.8%; Alcohol and tobacco up 9%; Clothing and footwear up 1.8%; Housing and services up 7.9%; Transport up 5.8%; Communication up 6.6%; Restaurants and hotels up 4.4%

I review my energy supplier, mortgage, insurance etc every single time they come up for renewal and then change if necessary, but just because you get the best current deal doesn't mean the price hasn't risen.

Are you seriously suggesting that if you use uswitch, moneysupermarket, kelkoo et al, just brought BOGOF offers and got your branded goods from Lidls we'd somehow "beat" inflation?

[Loz]

You can quote averages until to cows come home Chippy - all I'm saying is that the deals are out there. Car insurance down 15% this year for me (20% if you take the renewal rate my current insurer tried to get me to take). And let's not forget that mortgage interest rates are at an all time low, either.

Are you seriously suggesting that if you use uswitch, moneysupermarket, kelkoo et al, just brought BOGOF offers and got your branded goods from Lidls we'd somehow "beat" inflation?

Absolutely. Take food - 3.8% up this year according to your figures. If you can't shop cleverer and make the best of the deals to get your supermarket bill down 3.8% then you just aren't trying. That's ?1.52 of a ?40 bill. Doesn't take many special offers, etc to save that.

Yes, people at the poorer end of the scale can't afford to make the most of BOGOFs, etc. I appreciate that. But if you have a reasonable income you can do OK out of the current climate.

[Chippy Minton]

According to your figures

Well, according to the actual figures from the Office of National Statistics http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16535721

Special offers existed long before this current recession, but if you simply can't afford the price in the first place it's irrelevant i.e. if you always brought special offers before the recession, you will still be buying them now but the actual price you pay has increased.

the poorer end of the scale can't afford to make the most of BOGOFs, etc. I appreciate that. But if you have a reasonable income you can do OK out of the current climate.

And therein lies the crux of the problem - the cuts are hitting those that can't afford it the hardest.

For the record, I suspect I'm very much like you - I'm middle class, earn a reasonable income i.e. enough money to buy and do a lot of the things I like to do reasonably often - eat out, to to the pub, go on holiday, treat my kids, drive a car etc without having to worry a great deal about how much it has gone up in price in the last year. Yes, I will always make sure I'm getting the best deal, but I'm lucky enough to know that saving ?1.52 on a bill won't make a jot of difference to me.

However, for millions of others in this country, the ideological cuts coupled with inflation are crippling.

[El Pibe]

I'm beginning to wonder if my posting my question on the pro cuts thread was a mistake.

It was just the first thread I could find that dealt with cuts specifically.

I thought it might be good to analyse whehter its time to reassess the policy in the light of the Tory optimism being wholly misplaced (or indeed whether it was just a front so that noone minded too much as they wielded the axe).

It wasn't intended to be an implicitly imply that I'm pro cuts.

[????]

The question is irrelevant IMO

Without the cuts we'd have at best lost our dirt cheap interest rates on our huge debts that our AAA and Bond Yields are currently giving us...at worst we'd have had a fully blown Sovreaighn Debt Crisis. The cuts were needed and quickly there wasn't really a 'not as fast not as deep alternative' imo

Events such as the Euro crisis have derialed alot of growth, i'm not sure keeping VAT at 15%(?) and delaying the Cuts a year would have made sod all meaningful difference to growth and the effect on the generally held market belief that we are going to deal with our debts could have been undermined with cartastrophic effect. There is no getting round the shite we're going to face for a few more years yet. Most of the sensible voters know this which has meant that Even the two Eds realise this now.

Sorry folks, no magic wand out of this.

[Undisputedtruth]

My mortgage is based on the US interest rates so the events in Euroland have no bearing in what I pay. Nearly all of my bills are at rock bottom prices and there's absolutely no way I can get better deals, Loz.

Most of the sensible voters know this which has meant that Even the two Eds realise this now.

I don't believe "the sensible voters" understands economics otherwise the Tories wouldn't be in power. Labour have always maintained that their plan involved growth and not making as much cuts as the Tories for the past few years.

[New Nexus]

UK Debt 507 % of GDP.

UK Public Debt ?1,216,000,000,000 over 1 Trillion pounds

UK population 62,262,000 (date 2010)

No Keynesian economics wizardry can fix this.

Public Minsky moment?

[Huguenot]

New Nexus in 'Complete Prat' shocker.

Anyway, on a more intelligent note....

There's a macro economic issue in the UK at the moment that's related to behaviour rather than finance. Modern societies are about the exchange of goods and services, and money is about the relative perceived value.

Regardless of the 'money' issue, it seems that the economy has stalled on the trading issue. The UK from the outside is looking rather like a man crossing a motorway who has suddenly frozen in the fast lane, unsure of whether crossing the road was a great idea or not.

The UK needs to start trading, and stop panicking over whether bankers get too much bonus.

In an environment like this, the pompous slack jawed dribble of UDT and New Nexus is causing an unreasonable distraction. If you sit there listening to these pricks there's only one outcome that involves a radiator grill and 70mph.

The UK needs to get a grip and understand that money doesn't matter - business does.

If the Daily Mail cared, that would be the headline on every issue: 'Britains's Better Off Working'.

[New Nexus]

?The UK needs to get a grip and understand that money doesn't matter - business does.?

What school did you attend the Bernard Madoff or Conrad Black academy ?

Money will matter a lot when a bank holiday is announced and currency devaluation starts.

Just a heads-up India starting bilateral oil trade with Iran, how many T-Bills is the UK holding?

[Huguenot]

"how many T-Bills is the UK holding?"

More ludicrous US based copy and paste. You're like a broken record.

"when a bank holiday is announced and currency devaluation starts"

Starts? Are you insane? Sterling has devalued 25% since 2009.

The problem you have is that every time you put fingertip to keyboard it's all bollocks. Why don't you think about it first? Go on, try it? Engage brain?

[New Nexus]

?Starts? Are you insane? Sterling has devalued 25% since 2009.? Via money printing ? money printing that has only ended up pushing up commodities prices, take a look where the QE monies went.

?25% since 2009.? You have not seen anything yet.

There will be a declared bank-holiday and currencies will be decimated.

Do the math, do the debt exposure.

[Huguenot]

Yes New Nexus - the devaluation is a way of reducing the debt.

If you don't like debt, they you do like devaluation.

Get it?

[New Nexus]

It is now beyond the semantics of liquidity issues and more a question of Insolvency.

The abdication of self-governance over public / private debt, has rendered the system completely corrupt, the commingling of public / private debt i.e. banker bailout & QE + leveraging of said QE is metaphorically speaking aggravated assault.

[Huguenot]

None of that makes sense as English.

Self-governance cannot abdicate, only a person or body of people can abdicate.

Abdication cannot render anybody anything, because abdication means giving up the power to ifluence. It could leave a vacuum within which corruption flourishes, but that's not what you said.

QE and banker bailouts are completely unrelated. To heap them together shows a gross misunderstanding of the basic elements of economics and finance.

As a metaphor the aggravated assault one is rubbish. Aggravated assault is a personal attack with a weapon, even at its worst QE is completely impersonal, and there's no weapon element.

[New Nexus]

Which part of ?metaphorically speaking? do you not understand.

Most sensible people would understand that money printing (QE) is an assault on their savings and artificially drives inflation.

If you cannot understand the abdication of responsibility premise - then sorry, your beyond help.

[Undisputedtruth]

Devaluation of Sterling isn't new and there was a time when you could get $4.50 for each pound during the days of the Gold Standard.

[New Nexus]

The devaluation to come will be nothing like the days of old; its mechanisms and extent will be of a completely new form and implementation.

[Undisputedtruth]

I thought the idea of devaluation was to give a boost to export markets.

[Huguenot]

It is UDT. Goddam it you're right! :)

[New Nexus]

Undisputedtruth Wrote:

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> I thought the idea of devaluation was to give a

> boost to export markets.

And makes imports more expensive

[Marmora Man]

You're beginning to get the idea NN.

[Undisputedtruth]

Huguenot Wrote:

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> It is UDT. Goddam it you're right! :)

Economics is pretty easy to understand. This is the reason why I got myself a mortgage based on the US interest rate. It also makes me risk averse to turbulent UK interest rates as the Tories usually screw up in that area. ;-)

[Loz]

... but pretty concerned about turbulent UK/US exchange rates, I'd guess.