Southwark Parks restricted access

[first mate]

Thanks for clarification.

[Renata Hamvas]

The only group where everyone was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Cruise passengers are typically likely to be older and be therefore more likely to have underlying health problems that then general population. The Diamond Princess had about a 1% fatality rate. The UK rate is a massive underestimate of infected individuals as currently testing is only being done on hospital admissions. I know of 9 likely affected people, none of them have been tested.

Renata

[AllisonAdler]

It is easy to panic about contagion because we can't see it. It is even easier to gloss over mental health issues because we can't, for the most part, see them. However, one aspect of science has been uniformly clear: mental health is crucial for immunity. Calling for total isolation and draconian measures to keep healthy people indoors, and other such things, are understandable responses to fear, but we must counter these expressions of anxiety with rational behaviour.

[intexasatthe moment]

This is an interesting look at the Diamond Princess cases .

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

I have no idea how much ,if any ,credence can be given to it .

[Blah Blah]

I completely agree Alison and mental health is going to be a challenge over the coming months. This is why I think government should have a think about internet access for those who don't have it. There are now 4G and 5G modems that require no cables (plug and play). It won't be the answer for everyone, but getting as many people online as possible would be a huge help in sharing mental health treatment and solutions.

[NewWave]

May I add something to this discussion.

Today I went for a solo walk to Peckham Rye park.

90% of walkers in the park were very respectful to the 2m distance-as was I ..we hung back if needs be to create the distance or stripped onto the grass to let the others pass.

However on the pavement outside the park (opposite Harris school) which was pretty narrow no less than 3 lots of joggers ran straight towards me on the pavement huffing and puffing and brushing right alongside me (the pavement being too narrow to keep enough of a gap unless I'd flattened myself to the railings).

In one case it was 2 joggers both running side by side straight at me causing me to have to step off of the pavement into the road to keep any more than a couple of feet between us.

Thankfully the road was pretty empty of traffic so I was able to do this but the same thing happened on another road jogger on pavement huffing and puffing right beside me. once more the road was clear of traffic so they could have stepped off of the pavement safely and gone well past me.

I would ask that Joggers remain mindful of social distancing and if needs be upon seeing a walker on a narrow stretch of pavement take a quick glance and if the road is clear of oncoming traffic just go round them.

[dbboy]

23/03, Number of reported UK covid 19 infections, 6650

23/03, Number of UK covid 19 deaths, 335

23/03, % of UK covid 19 deaths, 5.04%, 5 in every 100 infected people have died.

[Penguin68]

23/03, Number of reported UK covid 19 infections, 6650

23/03, Number of UK covid 19 deaths, 335

23/03, % of UK covid 19 deaths, 5.04%, 5 in every 100 infected people have died.

It does not mean this, as only 10% of people with suspected Covid-19 are being hospitalised, and tests are only being conducted in hospitals on those 10% - so the likely actual number of infected in the UK is 67000 and the mortality rate is thus most likely around 0.5%. (The death figures are right, the 'infected' figures very wrong). The actual rubric, out of interest, is that xx people are dying 'with' Covid-19 - although we may assume that for most it is also 'of' it is worth remembering that most men over 80 who die, die 'with' prostate cancer - though most of these do not die 'of' it. We know that many deaths are of people with underlying medical problems - which are surely at least contributory.

What the figures do mean is that for those ill enough to be hospitalised, the death rate is about 5% - but 90% or so of those who catch the disease are not ill enough to go to hospital. [indeed, there are numbers, it would appear, who have the disease, and may spread it, but who are asymptomatic and have no idea they are actually ill - it is these people in particular that the latest move to lock down the population is meant to be protecting us against]

[dbboy]

The infected figures come from the Government website, so they are officially correct.

At least we agree that the 5% who die in hospital who were infected is correct. If the stats are renamed as;

23/03, Number of hospitalised UK covid 19 infections, 6650

23/03, Number of hospitalised UK covid 19 deaths, 335

23/03, % of hospitalised UK covid 19 deaths, 5.04%, 5 in every 100 infected people have died.

[JohnL]

Somebody on twitter did say (and I'm not sure if it's true) that the COVID-19 stats are collected in the same way annual flu figures are collected.

So there are a lot of flu victims who never end up in the stats also and therefore the real mortality rate of annual flu might be very low.

[Penguin68]

Somebody on twitter did say (and I'm not sure if it's true) that the COVID-19 stats are collected in the same way annual flu figures are collected.

I think, happy to stand corrected, that annual flu figures are also based on reports from GPs - but GPs are not involved in Covid-19 - which is handled through 111 and hospitals. GPs do treat flu, they don't treat Covid-19. I don't think there has been any attempt to collate self-reporting (or indeed just questions) posed to 111 - save where they have moved to testing in case of severe cases. There are a lot of 'worried well', I know, ringing or contacting 111.

[dbboy]

Just released from the official data -

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

24/03, Number of reported UK covid 19 infections, 8077, yesterdays figure was 6650

24/03, Number of reported UK covid 19 deaths, 442, yesterdays figure was 335

24/03, % of hospitalised UK covid 19 deaths, 5.47%.

[Blah Blah]

The stats for any pandemic change all the time during the pandemic itself. Only at the end can any definitive figure be given on mortality. BUT is it enough to know that this is not flu, that this virus is twice as infectious and 30 times more deadly. That in itself should be enough to understand why this is not anything like a bout of seasonal flu.

[dbboy]

Blah Blah - in total agreement with what you say.