COVID-19 Fact or Fiction?

[Spartacus]

Whilst the letter highlighted by blah blah has some obvious fake names, I am concerned by its contents as they are basically calling for the elderly and vulnerable to be shielded again and for healthy people to catch covid, the so called herd immunity that was so wildly poo pooed 6 months ago.

However what the signatures of the letter fail to recognise is that healthy people can get long covid as a result, which leaves them with serious debilitating side effects that may have even longer consequences for their lives and health. https://www.longcovid.org/resources

This on top of the cricket games attracting crowds on Rye Lane really concerns me that people have become covid nonchalant which may well come back to bite them !

[Blah Blah]

All of that is true and it is also where I think government messaging has gone wrong. There has never been any emphasis placed on the percentage of healthy people that need ICU care to recover (a far higher number than those who die) and nor has there been enough conversation about the irregular conditions that this virus seems to also induce, like a higher incidence of strokes. All of those things need much longer term monitoring to fully understand the scale and implications of. Also true to say is that you can not achieve herd immunity with a virus that induces weak immune responses that drop off after six months. Rhinoviruses are a good example of that. And even with viruses that induce long lasting immune responses, herd immunity is rarely achieved without the help of a working vaccine. Then we get into mutations, which is why we have to develop a new vaccine for flu every year.

So what is the rational response moving forward? To be honest about the pernicious nature of this virus and all its complications. To enforce the rules around masks, washing hands and social distancing, because those things combined DO work to slow spread and reduce infection. Business will adapt, and indeed, many businesses (including pubs) are operating effective ways of operating safely. We are not going back to crowded environments until this virus is dealt with one way or another. Even entertaining a notion of a world where the young can move freely while everyone over fifty has to live under restrictions and isolation will be political suicide for a party, and anyway, will fail to stop spread into those more vulnerable groups.

There are other views of course, but they need to come with an honesty about what level of illness and death is acceptable to them. Then we can have a discussion about that benchmark. Just ignoring that factor isn't helpful.

[JohnL]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> It's easy to pluck some random "scientist" out of

> the air with a contrary view - but you need to

> back up their bonafides

>

> be it promotion of tobacco, climate change or

> economists for brexit we hear the same thing -

> "the experts are divided" - but it's never really

> true - a small number of outliers are held up as

> "balance" - but the core message remains true

>

> https://www.wired.co.uk/article/great-barrington-d

> eclaration-herd-immunity-scientific-divide

The BBC and others are causing this issue with it's "we must always provide an opposing view"

If a scientist is on saying the world is round we must for balance have another saying the world is flat.

[Sephiroth]

very much so JohnL

[JohnL]

Spartacus Wrote:

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> This on top of the cricket games attracting crowds

> on Rye Lane really concerns me that people have

> become covid nonchalant which may well come back

> to bite them !

Nobody hit a six big enough to get to me :)

The pubs still sticking to masks unless you're seated at a table as far as I know - people seem to feel safe outside I think, but we have no idea of the infectiousness of this in the cold rainy weather. What's known as long covid is a bit of an unknown - it might be rare, but it's not impossible that it'll take away a bit of a persons lung/vascular capacity every time it hits.

[Blah Blah]

Outside has been safer during the summer, but that changes when people start getting seasonal colds and coughs. If you are in proximity to someone who sneezes or coughs infection (of any kind) indoors or outside, then there is a risk of catching the infection. This is why there have been real concerns about the Winter and a potential second wave.

[Blah Blah]

.

[Blah Blah]

Pretty grim assessment from the government briefing that just took place, including the evidence that you can not protect older ages groups when spread occurs in other age groups.

Something needs to change. Government seems to still be resisting a localised track and trace system. Also evidence emerging that lockdown measures were lifted too early in the North, although I personally doubt that would have made much of a difference over time. If people genuinely want to avoid restrictions and lockdowns, everyone has to do their part to minimise the risk of spread, but government also needs to follow the most effective methods of tracking spread. Unless both of those things happen, I suspect we'll be in a far worse place than we were back in March and April before the Winter is out.

Sky just reported that hospital admissions in Liverpool are the third highest in Europe now. That should concern everyone.

[Spartacus]

Good point Blah Blah

Everyone can do their bit to help slow the spread.

Wear a face mask fully covering your mouth and nose when in shops and other required areas. Wearing it just covering your mouth is as dangerous as not wearing it.

Where possible stick to the 2m rule (despite everything the rule is still there with the exception of where it's not practical i.e. going for a haircut or similar activity that needs closer contact.)

Wash your hands frequently and for the required time.

Use the track and trace app and if you are asked to isolate do so, it may save your or a close family members life.

If you show signs of Covid, isolate and book.a test

Most of all stay safe, stay alive.

[JohnL]

The more you go out the more you'll forget the above.

If you go out once a day or less it's pretty easy - if you're rushing around back and for you'll forget unless you're careful.

[Blah Blah]

Yes to all of that Spartacus.

[Spartacus]

JohnL Wrote:

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> The more you go out the more you'll forget the

> above.

>

> If you go out once a day or less it's pretty easy

> - if you're rushing around back and for you'll

> forget unless you're careful.

I suspect it's not easy to forget having to be ventilated so everytime you go out think about how you are able to and not in ICU fighting for your life which may help you remember 🤔

[JohnL]

SO Liverpool locked down .... except Wetherspoons

Doesn't take much guessing what will happen.

Edit: I'm still trying to work out if you can order 10 pints with your packet of pork scratchings or only one

[Blah Blah]

It isn't clear on the Weatherpoons thing. Tier 3 seems to include ALL pubs and bars, but not restaurants. Weatherspoons is not a restaurant chain.

[JohnL]

This thread sort of sums it up. Nobody knows.

[diable rouge]

The weather's not helping but this feels like one of the grimmest days since the initial lockdown, and this time no exit strategy whatsoever. The majority of the country made sacrifices in order to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and to buy time for an efficient test and trace system, and there's absolutely nothing to show for it except a clown car of a Government making it up as they go along. There's not even a tunnel in sight let alone a light at the end of it...

[Blah Blah]

I have to agree diable. March and April were awful for the NHS. Being able to manage the virus and avoid a repeat of that always depended on getting a working track and trace system in place, and the public doing their part. There is no excuse for the lack of delivery of the former. And on the latter, it was always going to be a challenge in a country that is densely populated by a public who in significant part, do not have the kind of self discipline the Scandinavians do for example. Bear in mind, that daily stats are a measure of where the transmission rate was two weeks ago. Allowing for exponential percentages, we are going to be back in full lockdown territory within weeks. It is that longish incubation period that is the problem when it comes to accurately knowing infection rates.

To give credit to Boris today, he seems to finally have ditched the bravado and false promises. When asked about a vaccine, he was candid and pointed out that Sars Cov 1 still has no vaccine after 14 years. There is going to have to be some thinking now about how we live with this virus longer term, if indeed it takes 3 or more years to find a vaccine. And that sadly is going to mean seasonal closures of spaces where people congregate.

[Spartacus]

Whilst it is not going to be a popular opinion, the government are doing everything they can to balance the economy and save lives but, and this is a big but, we all need to step up and protect ourselves

Contact is how this virus is transmitted, not some government plot to infect us all, so we all have our part to play by following the rules to help defeat this virus and to stop a major disaster. If we don't then no matter what any government does, we will all fail.

[JohnL]

We don't need a vaccine to improve the death rate and general treatment though - that will improve due to drugs that help treat Covid and other methods of care - and as with HIV it'll be a cocktail of drugs.

This second wave will show us a lot in terms of deaths. The question of long term effects still remains - that's still seen as almost a myth when it really isn't. Then there's re-infection - that needs to be answered. Surely someone is also studying social distancing and the best way to proceed whilst effecting people and society as little as possible whilst having maximum effect on transmission. Even the tiers aren't Boris or Dom ideas - they come from other countries - Ireland has had tiers for a while.

Maybe there won't be a vaccine and we will have to live with it - but the effects will get less rather than more I'd hope.

[Alan Medic]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Whilst it is not going to be a popular opinion,

> the government are doing everything they can to

> balance the economy and save lives but, and this

> is a big but, we all need to step up and protect

> ourselves

Well I have to agree with you there, it's certainly not popular with me.

The government has squandered billons on a track and trace contract, subcontracted all over the place. It appears none of them have any experience with this sort of thing. Track, trace and isolate is meant to be a key aspect of inhibiting the spread of the virus. The world beating app is from Div.4 it seems.

I'd have more sympathy for the government if they hadn't been dishing out contracts to friends and friends of friends. This is inexcusable and corrupt at the same time. Add to that the fact that the cabinet is made up of Johnson/Cummings yes men/women who only got their jobs due to supporting BJ's Brexit blindly, and you have a group of ministers not fit for the positions they hold.

This government has a lot to answer for.

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Spartacus Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Whilst it is not going to be a popular opinion,

> > the government are doing everything they can to

> > balance the economy and save lives but, and

> this

> > is a big but, we all need to step up and

> protect

> > ourselves

>

> Well I have to agree with you there, it's

> certainly not popular with me.

>

> The government has squandered billons on a track

> and trace contract, subcontracted all over the

> place. It appears none of them have any experience

> with this sort of thing. Track, trace and isolate

> is meant to be a key aspect of inhibiting the

> spread of the virus. The world beating app is from

> Div.4 it seems.

>

> I'd have more sympathy for the government if they

> hadn't been dishing out contracts to friends and

> friends of friends. This is inexcusable and

> corrupt at the same time. Add to that the fact

> that the cabinet is made up of Johnson/Cummings

> yes men/women who only got their jobs due to

> supporting BJ's Brexit blindly, and you have a

> group of ministers not fit for the positions they

> hold.

>

> This government has a lot to answer for.

Can't see Dido Harding lasting much longer - she really has been not brilliant, but then has Boris ever sacked anybody he appointed.

[Blah Blah]

The next four weeks will probably decide the future of Harding. If the government track and trace fails to keep up with infection rates, then we will switch to a localised setup with money going directly to local authorities. Persisting with expensive contracts (given to Tory party chums) that do not deliver, will not be tolerated for much longer I think.

[Spartacus]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Spartacus Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Whilst it is not going to be a popular opinion,

> > the government are doing everything they can to

> > balance the economy and save lives but, and

> this

> > is a big but, we all need to step up and

> protect

> > ourselves

>

> Well I have to agree with you there, it's

> certainly not popular with me.

>

> The government has squandered billons on a track

> and trace contract, subcontracted all over the

> place. It appears none of them have any experience

> with this sort of thing. Track, trace and isolate

> is meant to be a key aspect of inhibiting the

> spread of the virus. The world beating app is from

> Div.4 it seems.

>

> I'd have more sympathy for the government if they

> hadn't been dishing out contracts to friends and

> friends of friends. This is inexcusable and

> corrupt at the same time. Add to that the fact

> that the cabinet is made up of Johnson/Cummings

> yes men/women who only got their jobs due to

> supporting BJ's Brexit blindly, and you have a

> group of ministers not fit for the positions they

> hold.

>

> This government has a lot to answer for.

Sigh

This is exactly the problem we are facing

"It's nor my responsibility that the app failed, or that people can't be traced because they give incorrect details

It's the government failing to protect us all from our own stupidity because we fail to follow the rules, we fail to protect our selves or others , we fail to wear masks correctly and we fail spectacularly to take responsibility for our own actions because some bloke went to a castle, a private company didn't do as well as want or people were taking tests when they didn't need to."

That sort of rhetoric is exactly why numbers are rising because people assume that it's someone else's issue to deal with. It's not it's ALL OUR ISSUE.

Wake up and smell the roses as this is a global pandemic and the government are trying to limit the damage the public are causing. (better to smell the roses than the Lilly's on your grave)

[Blah Blah]

Also, it provides an out for government in the blame game. Only, it it becomes one part of the public blaming another in reality (divide and rule yet again). Today it has emerged that government largely ignored the advice of SAGE over the recent days, on the way to proceed. We will see what happens to the infection rates over the coming weeks to see who was right.

[Alan Medic]

Spartacus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Alan Medic Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Spartacus Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Whilst it is not going to be a popular

> opinion,

> > > the government are doing everything they can

> to

> > > balance the economy and save lives but, and

> > this

> > > is a big but, we all need to step up and

> > protect

> > > ourselves

> >

> > Well I have to agree with you there, it's

> > certainly not popular with me.

> >

> > The government has squandered billons on a

> track

> > and trace contract, subcontracted all over the

> > place. It appears none of them have any

> experience

> > with this sort of thing. Track, trace and

> isolate

> > is meant to be a key aspect of inhibiting the

> > spread of the virus. The world beating app is

> from

> > Div.4 it seems.

> >

> > I'd have more sympathy for the government if

> they

> > hadn't been dishing out contracts to friends

> and

> > friends of friends. This is inexcusable and

> > corrupt at the same time. Add to that the fact

> > that the cabinet is made up of Johnson/Cummings

> > yes men/women who only got their jobs due to

> > supporting BJ's Brexit blindly, and you have a

> > group of ministers not fit for the positions

> they

> > hold.

> >

> > This government has a lot to answer for.

>

>

> Sigh

> This is exactly the problem we are facing

I take personal responsibility seriously. That's my job. The government has made a balls of their job is all I'm saying. So what I wrote is not a 'problem', and neither am I for anyone else.