Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[Sephiroth]

you don't have to listen to me or any other poster you don't like

But you can keep posting garbage from Briefings for Britain and no-one is going to take it seriously because they are a fringe group of loons hiding behind their "reason". Again you don't have to listen to me - but almost no-one in their own field pays them the slightest bit of notice because they are so far gone. Economists are embarrassed by Minford

https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/posts/if-patrick-minfords-economics-are-dubious-his-political-judgment-is-worse-it-is-/10155767039554060/

And if Brexiteers like Wolfson are complaining about Brexit - take your issues up with them instead of complaining about people like us - email him with a briefings for Britain paper and see how far it gets you. or him

and for anyone reading who hasn't had a look at the briefings for Britain website - do go take a look - you be the judge of how reasonable and factual they are

[TheCat]

Never fear...I definitely don't listen to you....

But also...I don't know what minford has to do with the report I linked to...he is not one of the authors. Moreover, im not sure what a 5 year old article about him has got to do with anything.

In anycase...forgetting anyones opinions of anyone elses opinions, or even any opinions contained in the article i linked to, I asked about data...and the data quoted in the report (which you doubt the factual credibility of), is sourced from the OECD and the ONS....

That's not opinion. Thats fact. Unless you're now saying the Office for National Statistics is warping the data for brexit purposes?...

So long story, short....you still haven't read the article or been able to quote any data at all to prove the brexit disaster point....

Perhaps 'those reading' should be more concerned with how 'reasonable and factual' most of your comments are....

Edited November 10, 2022 by TheCat

[diable rouge]

Cat, do yourself a favour and stop referencing B4B. David Henig, an independent trade expert, referenced them recently in a comment about The Guardian's Larry Elliot's piece entitled ''Brexit isn't to blame for our current problems''...

Whether from left or right, there is no part of economics that Brexit fundamentalists will not undermine if it doesn't produce their 'right' answer. Heck, a Guardian Brexiteer will even reference the joke that is Briefings for Brexit. (I read this as a quip rather than a typo)

Once more for the partisans, if Brexit has no cost then there is no case for free trade. Fortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case. Should on the other hand, trade barriers just be one facet of growth, then we'd expect UK performance to slightly lag competitors, as it is there never was going to be a UK economic fall off a cliff. Some sectors are doing ok, Brexit isn't obviously affecting Scotch Whisky, the Premier League, or universities. But in other sectors, greater barriers, lower competition, economic cost.

It's telling that Cat's attack line is now reduced to 'Brexit's not been great but it's not been a disaster either', as if that is some kind of 'win'. That's not what Brexit promised, quite the opposite in fact.

Once again, this isn't about what Cat thinks, his type of Brexit, but how the millions of people up and down the country who voted for Brexit, perceive whether Brexit has delivered on those promises or not.

Politically, when you have differences of opinion on the direction a county should take, the onus is always on the winner to deliver, usually via a GE. It's irrelevant what the losing side said/promised. Their ideas are not being implemented, the winner's are. Corbyn's promise of free broadband for everyone is immaterial because he didn't win. So. unless Brexit delivers on what it promised, people will rightly conclude that it's failed.

And polls suggest that this is already cutting through, even I was taken aback that one recent poll had Rejoin at close to 60%. That's Rejoin, i.e. completely undoing Brexit. I'd always envisaged that we would first of all stay Brexited but join the Single Market and maybe the Customs Union as a half-way house, something we should've done initially.

I'm also not sure what this fascination with the word 'disaster' is, I presume someone on here has said it and it's buried itself in Cat's head. Perhaps Cat's the only one who can use throw away lines.

Besides, what makes something a 'disaster' or not is wholly subjective. Henig doesn't think Brexit has been a disaster to the economy as a whole, but to the SME who's gone out of business because they can no longer afford to export their goods to the EU, they will rightly claim it has indeed been a disaster...

[TheCat]

Haha...New heights of disengenuity....'I'm sure SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE has suggested brexit is a 'disaster''...

https://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&client=ms-android-samsung-rvo1&source=android-browser&q=brexit+disaster

Also...a concession that brexit isn't much of anything at a national level isn't a 'line of attack'....its a fairly sober assessment of the reality...one which you (and you friend Mr henig) seem not to wildly disagree with...

Perhaps though it is in response to these obscure, unheard voices who are claiming brexit has been really, really bad.....

Edited November 10, 2022 by TheCat

[Sephiroth]

"quote any data at all to prove the brexit disaster point...."

5 PMs in 6 years (and another on the way soon) isn't the sign of any country going well. It's deep into dysfunctional territory.

[diable rouge]

Haha...New heights of disengenuity....'I'm sure SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE has suggested brexit is a 'disaster''...

 

Not at all, I'm sure it's been said but I'm equally sure that unless you cite the context it was said i.e. it could have been said in relation to when discussing No Deal, then it's nothing more than throwing words around.

 

Perhaps in response to these obscure, unheard voices who are claiming brexit has been really, really bad.....

 

Again, for some people Brexit has been ''really, really bad'', and who's to say that whoever's used that term on here hasn't themselves had a really bad experience with Brexit? Not everyone wants to wash their dirty laundry on the EDF.

And if you want some data, I'll send you my latest mortgage statement courtesy of the Brexity free trade loons at B4B and their mucky paw prints all over Trussonomics and the catastrofuck that turned out to be. Remind me, how are B4B showing the £50b fiscal black hole in their 'data'?

And Seph makes an important point, it's not just economics that Brexit has affected, it's had an extremely adverse effect politically, and I'll add socially too...

[Sephiroth]

"even I was taken aback that one recent poll had Rejoin at close to 60%. That's Rejoin, i.e. completely undoing Brexit."

What's especially notable about this is that this is happening despite there being no major political party leading this message (or even coming close to it)

Despite waffle from Briefings from Britain, despite the UK press being pro-brexit, despite even Labour saying the won't even countenance single market - nearly 2/3ds of Britons say they would rejoin

Almost like they can see the damage (be it small or big) for themselves

But Cat will never ever be wrong on this - it will always be someone else's fault or failing.

[TheCat]

Haha...New heights of disengenuity....'I'm sure SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE has suggested brexit is a 'disaster''...

 

Not at all, I'm sure it's been said but I'm equally sure that unless you cite the context it was said i.e. it could have been said in relation to when discussing No Deal, then it's nothing more than throwing words around.

 

Perhaps in response to these obscure, unheard voices who are claiming brexit has been really, really bad.....

 

Again, for some people Brexit has been ''really, really bad'', and who's to say that whoever's used that term on here hasn't themselves had a really bad experience with Brexit? Not everyone wants to wash their dirty laundry on the EDF.

And if you want some data, I'll send you my latest mortgage statement courtesy of the Brexity free trade loons at B4B and their mucky paw prints all over Trussonomics and the catastrofuck that turned out to be. Remind me, how are B4B showing the £50b fiscal black hole in their 'data'?

And Seph makes an important point, it's not just economics that Brexit has affected, it's had an extremely adverse effect politically, and I'll add socially too...

 

Well I did provide a Google link to a long list of news stories proclaiming said 'disaster'...so feel free to browse to gain all important context.

And you may well accuse me of 'caveating everything'...but I did very clearly make my initial statement today about economics at a national level. It's you that have chosen to pivot and 'attack' my position using stories of individual traders, your mortgage and politics/social issues.

I must say, you do puzzle me, as often on the underlying guts of what I'm saying I think we're not in total disagreement, but you do the very thing you accuse me of and twist, obfuscate or focus on minutae to manufacture an argument or an attack on me.....as someone said recently on this forum....a rationale response would have been to say 'yes there hasn't been a significant negative impact economically at a national level, I largely agree with you'....but DR can never admit that the much hated cat might have a point on something, instead he has to double down, and/or point score, and/or maybe even throw in an ad hominem, and/or caveat something to within an inch of its life, and so on....

Anything but 'you might be right about something cat'.....

[Sephiroth]

Let’s put our wisdom to the test

Rees mogg and his absurd bill to scrap thousands of eu laws

Doable, liberating and a good idea ?

Or a complete folly (at best)?

Put me down for the latter

[diable rouge]

Well I did provide a Google link to a long list of news stories proclaiming said 'disaster'...so feel free to browse to gain all important context.

 

The thing with Google word searches is that they throw up anything and everything with whatever words are used, in this case you typed ''Brexit disaster''.

So, as well as articles claiming something along the lines of ''Brexit is a disaster'' there will also be articles claiming something along the lines of ''Brexit isn't a disaster''. Similarly, there will be articles that contain those words yet they're not writing about either.

So with all that in mind, I'll pass on your generous offer and instead file it under ''It's Friday, I'm off to the pub''.

 

And you may well accuse me of 'caveating everything'...but I did very clearly make my initial statement today about economics at a national level. It's you that have chosen to pivot and 'attack' my position using stories of individual traders, your mortgage and politics/social issues.

 

There's nothing wrong with 'pivoting' if it's still relevant/pertinent to the case in point. SME's and how well or not they are performing all contribute to the bigger national picture (by the way, SME's aren't limited to 'individual traders'). Interest rates are also entwined with what's happening nationally. Brexit is omnipresent, it's tentacles are everywhere, you can't distill them to suit your 'position'.

As for the last bit, please, not the ''everybody hates me'' martyr card, it's Friday, go to the pub and cry your Brexit tears into a beer.

To show you there's no hard feelings, I'll volunteer to drive you to the airport when you leave, just to make sure you get on that fecking plane...

[Sephiroth]

As Ukraine continues to push back Russian forces (thanks in no small part to UK aid) they have started flying EU flags

Someone needs to get them the Briefings for Brexit paper STAT

Come to think of it, why haven't the other EU countries read that paper and thought, "hang on a second here guys... we've been fools to ourselves"

oh yeah - because it's a crock of shite, built from the same fools gold as the whole Brexit project

And everyone, everyone from Ukrainians to Europeans to most Brits can see it - but not a small, plucky band of podgy middle-age men with strange ideas about how people and markets work

[zerkalo]

This wouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention but then 'Brexit hasn't been a complete catastrophic failure' so it must be OK for some.

[Sephiroth]

Amazing the criticism these people can muster up when they are no longer involved

https://news.sky.com/story/george-eustice-brands-australia-free-trade-deal-a-failure-in-brutal-swipe-at-liz-truss-12747723

Chasing cheap headlines at the expense of the country - who could have foreseen such a thing. And they all marched up the hill to tell us how good it was

[Sephiroth]

I note many beleavers, columnists and politicians are spending last couple of days saying 2022 is when Brexit starts to deliver

Bless.

The uk import controls alone from January will be an interesting headwind

 

a year later and where are we?

 

[list=]UKIPY Brexiters who were in government at the time now denouncing the Australia deal

UK still won't implement import controls

evidences of "Brexit starting to deliver" nowhere to be seen now or anywhere in the future

NI protocol rumbles on

and we have had 3 different prime ministers. In less than a year!

 

Stable. Strong and oh so Stable

[Sephiroth]

Whatever else Brexit is, “the will of the people” doesn’t seem to be one of them

🔥 Oof!! HUGE poll from YouGov. 🔥

“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

Right to Leave: 32%

Wrong to Leave: 56%

Largest ever gap (+24)… and that gap has been opening wider & wider over this year.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

It's easy to be wise in retrospect. I mean, who could have predicted the downsides (apart from everyone who predicted them)?

[Sephiroth]

I know you jest. But as an answer…

the Irish

And the Scottish.

And every other eu country

And then you have other countries looking to join

So only the English. Just them (and maybe their influence on wales)

But only enough English people were dumb enough to do this extraordinarily dumb thing. And then, just to complete the dunces cap, they made sure that when they changed their minds they had no way back.

Extraordinary

 

It's easy to be wise in retrospect. I mean, who could have predicted the downsides (apart from everyone who predicted them)?

[malumbu]

This thread seems to be very much I told you so, with Cat occasionally giving a very different view.

I'd be more interested in what the way forward is now we have left. Obviously I would welcome a closer arrangement with the EU and happy to have Europeans to do both low paid work (hospitality, agriculture) where there is a case as well as skilled workers where there is a shortage. The skilling up of the population isn't going to happen overnight.

[Sephiroth]

“

This thread seems to be very much I told you so, with Cat occasionally giving a very different view.”

“Look at me being all objective”

Nope. This country made a massive mistake which was not only widely forecast (only for those people to be abused from enemies of the people to project fear) but the problems are all still in play. Trying to both sides this isn’t going to fly

To fix a problem, you have to acknowledge the problem. And this country isn’t even close to doing that. It’s still in a “well, we can move forward if” nondescript lame mode. Starmer is all over the media this weekend telling the Tories how they are getting Brexit wrong. Which does not bode well

There are no simple paths forward now. Damage has been done. But damage will continue to be inflicted as long as people pretend they can make Brexit work

Oh and news just in

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Sephiroth]

I swear it’s like having a chronic alcoholic gambler in the family.

Some people in denial

Some people think it’s not that bad

Some people trying to stage an intervention only to be told “pointing fingers won’t help, mr I told you so. Uncle Dave has a different opinion. Situation is not that bad”

Fine fine. Crack on

[TheCat]

A valiant effort malumbu.

But we're not dealing with reasonable people here....

Better to say I told you so than be constructive at all. It was brexitieers who wanted this...so that apparently justifies checking out completely...

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

The skilling up of the population isn't going to happen overnight.

 

Does the UK have a skills gap (low unemployment, demand for low wage labour)? The UK economy just received 500,000 immigrants, driven by oppressive political events in Ukraine and Hong Kong. Does the economy need to be hooked back up to the cheap labour IV drip of central Europe?

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

It is 100% an I Told You So thread, and I doubt there is any way to recover it.

But TBH the question "what do we want to do now?" seems a little hopeless. The EU and EFTA seem like they have a pretty established approach to how they're willing to engage with third party states, and "we" don't like the terms of entry. So we can piss off...

[Sephiroth]

can we afford to "piss off"?

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

No. But that's the only option until we change our minds, which will require at least one general election.