Sunlit uplands. Are we there yet?

[diable rouge]

Explainer from the Beeb.

I'm guessing your average Brit is not going to take too kindly to the 'finger prints and face scan' bit in lieu of passport stamping.

''I feel like a criminal!''...

 

 

[Sephiroth]

kwasi on telly today complains about eu punishing brits and that maybe the uk should do the same to them 

 

ignoring not only 

a) uk govt pre Brexit approved this olan

b) his government set exactly same requirements to enter U.K.   

the people who pushed for and enacted Brexit are the very people who still don’t have a clue 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/apply-for-an-electronic-travel-authorisation-eta

aye Mal - but you would think the people who pushed for this wouldn’t have the gall to simultaneously complain about it

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13760813/amp/holidaymakers-Brussels-Brits-need-visa-waiver-travelling.html

 

 

Don’t forget to fill out your forms next year either 

 

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/britons-travelling-europe-visa-summer-2025-lr8xjm6m5

[IlonaM]

Simon Calder in yesterday's Independent seeks to clarify the forthcoming rules for third country nationals travelling to Europe:

'Slaying the myths about tougher post-Brexit red tape for UK travellers to Europe

The Man Who Pays His Way: Can we all start singing from the same post-Brexit hymn sheet, please?'

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/eu-brexit-red-tape-travel-entry-exit-system-etias-b2601368.html

[Sephiroth]

As he is making a tit of himself yet again this weekend, always funny to revisit Dan hannan’s pre referendum Brexit predictions for 2025

Is it possible to read and not cringe?

 

https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

[malumbu]

Wow land of hope and glory eh?  He failed to predict the lurch to the right and populism, which in part emboldened Putin.  And increase in extreme weather; he had no issues with extraction of shale gas and increasing our carbon footprint.

[Spartacus]

He also failed to predict a global pandemic, a war in Ukraine or a global spike in energy prices 🤔 

[malumbu]

Those are not the reasons Brexit has failed so badly, and if anything we would have been in a better position in the EU rather than out for the above.  Instability in the middle East, the craziness of Putin and potential for a SARs type pandemic were all known before we  voted.  Let's face it he is a small islander harking back to the days of Empire and gunboat diplomacy, who exploited many people's xenophobia to deliver a massive home goal for the UK. 

[Spartacus]

Did I say anything about brexit  ? 

I was simply pointing out that it was predictions and based on his available information at the time.

Predictions are never realistic or normally accurate I mean who could have predicted we wouldn't win the euros (again) or that Trump would run for president (again) or that Oasis would get together (again) 😉 

[Sephiroth]

Sparts

coming onto a Brexit thread where people are currently pointing  out just how wildly wrong Brexit in chief Dan Hannan continues to be, only to go “did I mention Brexit?” Is disingenuous at best 

 

none of his predictions in 2016 were ever going to come true   But people believed him and he continues to get paid for his garbage about “we hold the upper hand”

 

 

As he is making a tit of himself yet again this weekend, always funny to revisit Dan hannan’s pre referendum Brexit predictions for 2025

Is it possible to read and not cringe?

 

https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

[malumbu]

His forecast was wildly optimistic/idealist and had gone through no stress testing ie what ifs; at the time there was considerable global insecurity which he ignored, similarly climate change.  He wanted Brexit and had to backfit an outcome suitable to justify it to others.  That is not how analysis and projections work.

Big corporations look ahead ten, twenty and more years ahead and come up with a variety of scenarios what the world could look like, not necessarily what it will.  

Edited September 1, 2024 by malumbu

[Sephiroth]

God bless the UK and it's delusions that they need to deliberate over this or that their decision will have any consequence whatsoever

(as with everything Brexit related, some performative nonsense, followed by them just falling in line )

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lj58jql8o

[malumbu]

The comments in the BBC article are telling, sentiment along the lines that why did it take the UK so long, and a no brainer 

[Sephiroth]

well....

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/12/majority-of-brexit-voters-would-accept-free-movement-to-access-single-market-uk-eu

[Sephiroth]

Sovereignty? Monarchy? The British pound? 
 

fark all that shite 

(turns out being a rule taker and adopting a single currency isn’t the barrier some brexiteers feared after all)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/26/51st-state-usa-trump-starmer-eu-special-relationship/

[Sephiroth]

This trend really is quite something by now

 

Watching Starmer, Reeves and go do the same fingers-in-ear "la la la" will be their downfall

 

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-feel-about-brexit-five-years-on

[malumbu]

Just over half felt it was wrong, so that reflects the vote itself.  However, rather than nitpicking the meaning of the figures I am interested on how on earth 11% feel life is now better.  Of which a quarter of them voted to stay.

Perhaps some of this forum can enlighten me.  The Romans did quite a lot of good in Britain, and even traded with their enemies in Wales and Scotland.  I'm not sure we can answer "What has Brexit ever done for us?"

 

[Sephiroth]

I would say 55/35 is significantly different to 48/52

 

its not totally analogous of course and you’re correct to question some of the other points raised 

but it was clearly a massive deception and a massive mistake 

If Trump decides to invade/takeover Greenland there will be massive rupture between Europe and USA and uk will have to pick  side 

[malumbu]

A rather old article about the benefits of leaving the Common Agricultural Policy  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-leaving-eu-farming-agriculture

I'm not sure if we have seen any benefits yet.  CAP was acknowledged to be CrAP by many I knew in this area, but major reform a challenge.

Not sure why I should be posting possible benefits of Brexit - what about those of you who voted leave.  Where is Cat nowadays!

[diable rouge]

Latest news from the sunlit uplands, on the same day the UK economy 'unexpectedly' shrank 0.1%...

As an aside, the cognitive dissonance shown by large parts of the UK electorate over Brexit is quite a thing to behold. I don't think it's controversial to say that Brexit is now considered by a large % of the population to have failed, with the % who see it as a success in single figures. Yet, initial polling for the upcoming Runcorn by-election shows Reform winning what is a relatively safe Labour seat. Now I get protest votes and all that, but Reform were literally the Brexit Party before the rebrand. If there's such a large consensus that Brexit failed, why would so many even consider voting for a party that actively helped deliver Brexit and all the known economic damage it would cause? And that's before you even get to the fantasy economics it presented at the last General Election.

Labour haven't helped themselves either, by pursuing a nonsensical 'We can make Brexit work' approach, they have in effect made themselves impotent when it comes to attacking Reform and what they stand for...

Edited March 14 by diable rouge
Link removed, screenshot added

[Sue]

Yes, given the clear (and predictable) failure of Brexit, all the negative effects, and the overwhelming proportion of people agreeing that it has failed, I really can't understand why Labour have gone down the "making it work" road.

But then I have no idea of what reversing some or all of it might involve.

Also, Reform don't mention Brexit much, do they? If at all.  They push other aspects of what they say they stand for. So the people inclined to vote for them have probably completely forgotten they were ever associated with Brexit.

[Sephiroth]

The voters in these redwall seats all complain of a broken Britain etc etc - yet see no connection between the  country voting tory for 14 years and those towns voting for Brexit despite being warned it would lead to problems - they just moan about everything - often quite correctly (services are expensive or being cut, roads are a state, housing is expensive etc etc) but when you ask them when things were better.. well the answer is either 

 

a) under a labour government when we part of the EU

or

b) some fictional Facebook sepia tinted picture of Britain "when you could leave your front door open, we didn't know how lucky we were"

Voters say they want the truth but when someone sane (if dull and sometimes wrong) gets into power and says "lads, things are worse than we realised" they bleat about a lack of instant fixes and say it's wrong to keep blaming the last government (despite the lie about Labour crashing the economy in 2008 STILL being a stick labour get beaten with in 2025)

as for rejoining the EU - the barriers are immense - you have a press and a large portion of the population that will behave just abysmally. You have an electorate that recognises the mistake but is all very English and "made out beds, mustn't grumble" etc etc - no backbone. And you have an opposition party (or two) that is plain bonkers and when labour do lose power they would renege/reverse any progress made in matters EU in seconds

Meanwhile EU countries can see all this clearly and have no incentive to engage until this country grows up and is able to demonstrate they won't act hysterically when reintegration starts

Edited March 14 by Sephiroth

[diable rouge]

Yep,  the EU would definitely want cast-iron certainties that there was no chance of Brexit 2.0 before allowing the UK to rejoin.

Best we can hope for in the short to medium term  is the UK rejoins the single market. That would at least make Brexit work *better* than it currently does. 

But we live in a very volatile world and a lot can happen quickly, who'd thought we be rationally talking about the possibility of  a European Army outside the context of Brexit and its associated hysterics...

[Sephiroth]

"Best we can hope for in the short to medium term  is the UK rejoins the single market. That would at least make Brexit work *better* than it currently does. "

Not sure that is in any way feasible - what would UK give up to get that access? As soon as you go down that road all the usual suspects that got us into this mess will all be squealing all over again

(spoiler: the Uk doesn't think it has to give anything up)

 

[diable rouge]

This is an interesting You Gov poll from Nov '23 about what people think Single Market membership entails...

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48259-what-do-britons-think-single-market-membership-entails

 

 

 

[Sephiroth]

Putin's little helpers (like theTelegraph) TRUMPeting (sorry not sorry) the fact that UK only gets 10% tariff from uSA as a Brexit Dividend and validating Starmer's qauiescence 

Which ignores so much

The tariff was calculated on a childish  deficit/exports calculation and ignored any discussion

25% on cars remains in place for UK as well

The difference between 10% UK vs 20% EU is a fraction of the cost of Brexit anyway (that cost was dismissed as "worth it" or hand waved away - whereas this relatively small "Win" is heralded as a major victory

plus in any case even if UK was on 0%, teh global fallout from this will massively impact UK as a standalone country anyway

 

Of course not many countries escaped with 0% - oh but Russia did (although that is likely because they are already sanctioned)

Edited April 3 by Sephiroth