Afghanistan

[malumbu]

Watched lots of news coverage today, even ITV, a rarity, to get their take on it. Trying to read round a little on why it all happened so quickly and one theory is that the Taliban negotiated with the army for their safe passage if they laid down their arms. It would be interesting to get others' perspectives on what comes over as a dreadful situation and wasted Western investment in terms of both money and lives (not ignoring the much great loss of Afghans). The last 20 years have not led to popular support of a democratic regime.

Two useful articles that appear to go beyond our mainstream TV coverage

Poltico https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977

NT Times https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/asia/afghanistan-rapid-military-collapse.html

[JohnL]

Watching CNN yesterday and they said "there is no elegant way to lose a war"

Whatever went on, doesn't seem much was shared with the UK though.

[Spartacus]

I have to wonder if President Biden will regret his statement of "If anything, the developments of the past week reinforce that ending US military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision" should there be a resurgence of terrorism against the US.

[sjsl]

Thanks Malumbu, both good articles... makes a lot of sense, although it seems extraordinary the gulf in understanding shown by the West, well the US and ourselves, about what could be achieved and how.

The main concern is that women appear to have absolutely no voice in all of this.

[Sue]

Heartbreaking.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/15/an-afghan-woman-in-kabul-now-i-have-to-burn-everything-i-achieved?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[JohnL]

The Taliban are holding a live news conference now with translations such as ..

"Some miscreants have been causing trouble in Kabul"

[JohnL]

Also claiming they will allow education for all up to university level and they don't hold any grudges against anyone (even the USA)

Is this "New Taliban" really going to last longer than a week.

[JohnL]

First question is about women's rights

"We will give all rights to women as given in the principles of Islam"

[Jules-and-Boo]

great - no grudges.

What was the actual cost of the West's involvement in terms of lives? money? and what did we achieve?

[JohnL]

They basically just said they want to join the rules based international order.

[JohnL]

Of course that news conference was about as realistic as the former Iraqi Information Minister

[Jules-and-Boo]

And as transparent as Tony Blair

[womanofdulwich]

Isn't that what saudia Arabia does? Islamic law?

[JohnL]

Yes - I wondered what the world would do if the Taliban said "We will copy the Saudi form of Islam" - to an extent they are.

[TheCat]

It 'funny' (in a totally non-funny way) isn't it?

Add up all of Trump's misogynistic comments and actions and you'wont even come close to the horror brought to women's and girls lives by the 'progressive' Biden....

Where are the 'pussy hat' marchers now?

[Sephiroth]

It's a big ugly, no easy-wins situation, with horrific consequences currently unfolding

I don't think blaming Biden for implementing the deal Trump did twith he Taliban is quite the gotcha people who make the comment think it is. I'm not absolving Biden of anything - but let's not pretend Trump would somehow be doing better

[TheCat]

I dont mean it as a 'gotcha'....just a wry observation. And I'm not fan of Trump.

But if Biden can reverse Trump's non-commitment to Paris climate change agreement....surely he has the power to reverse this....

[Sephiroth]

yep - but then we go back to the fundamentals of this whole venture. Should we have gone in the first place? How long do we commit to staying? After 20 years do you just say "well, forever if necessary?".

If our problem is the way a country treats it's women are we going to tackle other big countries? Of course not

What the UK can do now (now that it was ignored in this) the one thing it is sovereign over, is decide how it treats refugees from Afghanistan - and that's not looking good is it?

[JohnL]

If the former Iraqi Government was seen to have a future in Afghanistan then why was it not included in the negotiations about the future of Afghanistan ?

you suspect some people knew this was going to happen.

[JohnL]

Taliban were meeting China last month as if they were already in power

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/taliban-have-important-role-in-afghanistan-s-future-says-china/2316462

[malumbu]

Sleepy Joe seems to have slept through much of this. Our lot were half awake on the beach.

Newsnight last night had some evidence that the Afghan army was around 50,000 rather than the 300k that sleepy Joe was putting forward.

[JohnL]

IDS in parliament now "Did we say to USA why did they make the decision to withdraw air cover (then withdraw entirely)"

I think the US didn't tell us and may have given up informing us of their intentions - they don't really trust us.

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sleepy Joe seems to have slept through much of

> this. Our lot were half awake on the beach.

Or he did know and allowed it to happen (an election is 3.5 years away - he may have decided to get it over with).

CNN said he wanted out after a conversation with (frustratingly I missed the who here)

[JohnL]

We seem to have known anyway and this whole article about withdrawal was written in April.

"At meetings of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels on March 23 and 24, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sought to put allies on notice that they should start thinking about how to conduct withdrawals of their own troops in Afghanistan, a combat disengagement that the Pentagon describes as a ?military retrograde operation.? "

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/17/us/politics/biden-afghanistan-withdrawal.html

[James Barber]

Early days to tell if Afghanistan wont be a base for international terrorists.

Clearly Islamic / Sharia law is alien to western values.

Equally taking the 2001 theocracy through to resilient democracy would take circa 100 years if history is anything to go by.

US has lost over 6,000 people killed in Afghanistan. Nearly half military, remainder contractors mostly for security. Over 20,000 seriously injured. And spent over a trillion USD.

What is amazing is that the US / NATO didn't leave well over a decade ago.

What may be hopeful is Taliban leadership living in rich Middle East states for most of the last 20 years. They've enjoyed more modern life styles - TV, mobiles, internet, security and freedoms. Id be amazed if they return Afghanistan back to the 2001 they were deposed from. Or that the 38 million citizens of Afghanistan having experienced the huge economic and social uplift of the last 20 years wish to return to 2001.

Equally 22% of Afghan GDP is currently from foreign aid almost exclusively the west.