Electricity and gas prices going up - what will you do?

[Soylent Green]

If our energy provision was still nationalised, our gas and electricity buying would be hedged and our storage facilities would be in full operation. We therefore would not be facing this mess. Large British and foreign energy suppliers hedge and forward buy supplies and other countries have kept their energy reserve operations.

[malumbu]

Rough only had a number of days storage, with the medium and short term storage facilities this would keep us going in a severe shortage for example in the past when we lost some North Sea production in extreme weather. In this situation high wholesale prices would lead to some businesses ceasing production, and ultimately there are those on interruptible contracts that can be temporarily cut off. This was from a good ten years ago before the whopping great inter-connectors were built with Norway - who has huge reserves and we are a natural customer.

I was involved in planning for shortages but this was another decade and of course very different to 2021.

Personally I'd never privatise anything but plenty of my friends did well as Thatcher, then even more under Major, and continued by Blair, sold off our national industries. I used to work with people in the old CEGB, and those building our new power stations, and recall some lovely redundancy deals in the 90s, when the UK decided (or the market decided) we didn't want this capability.

Rough was filled at relatively low wholesale prices and used when prices were high.

But this is all 30 years ago and I don't know how it would have all panned out if we hadn't sold off our state owned enterprises.

The work that I did considered large disruption and keeping essential services going, and stopping people freezing to death. We are not in a three day week situation quite yet but I am surprised there is not more resilience in CO2 supplies.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

No need - if we have a CO2 supply interruption in the UK, we can just get a bunch trucked in from the EU. Oh...

[JohnL]

We have no option but to pay - or they shred your credit rating.

Companies use this as a first threat too not a last resort.

[JohnL]

Dogkennelhillbilly Wrote:

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> More nuclear power plants would insulate us from

> gas and coal price rises but the failure to

> maintain and expand atomic energy is not a result

> of the introduction of renewables - it's a total

> failure of government to articulate a sensible

> policy to the market. More renewable capacity

> would also dampen the impact of global fuel prices

> - but of course their output varies in this

> country.

Just like us 80s children believed in hoverboards we believed in fridge sized nuclear power.

We seem to have have made no real advances in science - just engineering since the 80s - what happened.

[malumbu]

Bizarre thing to say. Higgs Bosun anyone? Human Genome? Developing, approving and manufacturing vaccines within 18 months? Greater success in cancer treatment. Growing human tissue and organs??

Not sure where your idea of a fridge sized nuclear power station came from but the cores in nuclear subs are not so far off in size and small modular reactors will be a thing in the future.

[ianr]

JohnL wrote:

------------

> We have no option but to pay - or they

> shred your credit rating.

>

> Companies use this as a first threat too

> not a last resort.

Do you mean install a pre-payment meter?

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

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> Bizarre thing to say. Higgs Bosun anyone? Human

> Genome? Developing, approving and manufacturing

> vaccines within 18 months? Greater success in

> cancer treatment. Growing human tissue and

> organs??

>

> Not sure where your idea of a fridge sized nuclear

> power station came from but the cores in nuclear

> subs are not so far off in size and small modular

> reactors will be a thing in the future.

Fusion in your kitchen, unlimited basically free energy - it was what we fully expected in the early 80s within 10-20 years (our teachers told us this).

I have to say I was disappointed when 2000AD came around never mind 2020 - to me in 1980 that was the fantastic future where everything would be solved - surprised people my age aren't feeling the same.

I even had a book as a child about Mars - we should have got there by 1990 - many advances just stopped at the end of the cold war.

Was it just my school that made all these promises and me that read the books with all these predictions of the future that proved wildly inaccurate - I don't see it as bizarre by the way think a lot of people my age feel this - where is all the stuff I was promised - society has stalled on so many levels - that we could do things so destructive politically, scientifically, socially.

[JohnL]

Anyway Sky News talking about the long term future and they've forgotten the long term future is meant to be driverless trucks.

But lets blame a leaking moaning remainer.

[malumbu]

Yes I remember video phones on Tomorrow's World, of course like small hand held computers linking you to the world and with levels of information at our finger tips unimaginable 30 years ago that was never going to happen....

[JohnL]

Anyway evidence

Life Expectancy graph for UK

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040159/life-expectancy-united-kingdom-all-time/

From 1900 to 1960 (60 years) it increased from about 45 to 70

From 1960 to 2020 (60 years) it increased from about 70 to 80

"the Atlantic" seems to have noted this before me and done some investigation

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/

and WTF

"Our graph stops at the end of the 1980s. The reason is that in recent years, the Nobel Committee has preferred to award prizes for work done in the 1980s and 1970s. In fact, just three discoveries made since 1990 have been awarded Nobel Prizes. This is too few to get a good quality estimate for the 1990s, and so we didn?t survey those prizes."

My degree was in Physics so I would have noted the lack of attaining what we were excitedly promised at University in 1984.

[Alan Medic]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I recently changed from Shell to Igloo and they

> were mentioned in dispatches yesterday. Something

> about restructuring consultants, whatever that

> means. I looked at their last filed accounts in

> 2020 and they made a loss of ?6M I think.

>

> I decided to check the accounts of another one

> which is getting a lot of airtime recently,

> Octopus. In the same period it made a loss of

> ?55M.

>

> What to make of that, I do not know.

RIP Igloo......

[Spartacus]

Watching the news about the price cap that came into effect today and with gas wholesale prices still going up there's a risk a lot more energy companies will fold before the end of the winter.

It begs the question that if the supplier pool collapses to a certain point, will the government be forced to step in and create a new national not for profit energy supplier?

[Nigello]

If I have a fixed price tariff with a big supplier, does the price cap rise mean my bill will increase before it ends?

[Spartacus]

Nigello Wrote:

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> If I have a fixed price tariff with a big

> supplier, does the price cap rise mean my bill

> will increase before it ends?

I think the price cap only related to variable rate tariffs and your rate will increase , possibly dramatically, when your fixed period comes to an end.

It's worth watching the market near the end of your fixed term and grabbing a bargain if one pops up when if you pay an exit fee on your current tariff

The difficulty is if your fixed period finishes soon, do you refix at a high rate or swallow the pain of a standard tariff and wait for global wholesale prices to drop (if they do )

[malumbu]

An interesting point is that with high gas prices Centrica, who produce about half of our gas in the North Sea (I understand that they produce from the North Sea and Morecambe Bay) our two major domestic reserves, will be making a mint. Great for their share holders, pension funds who invest etc but not for the rest of us.

Correct me if I am wrong! And maybe this would have been better under state ownership.... Don't tell Syd.

[TheCat]

UK gas prices up another 13% this morning......its going to be a tough, tough winter if the wind doesnt blow consistently all winter (which it wont)....

[Nigello]

So, to go back to the thread title, what will you all do? Put on an extra jumper? Eat more hot soup? Stop buying things you don't need but like to have? Cancel Christmas?

[ianr]

Nigello wrote:

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> So, to go back to the thread

> title, what will you all do?

What will Nigello do?

[Nigello]

Turn off lights, heat fewer rooms, buy less expensive food.

[diable rouge]

You should be ok leaving internal rooms unheated, but any room with an external wall would benefit from some heating, albeit at a lower temp than the main living spaces, otherwise you could be inviting damp/mould...

[jazzer]

What is the evidence to support your statement?

TheCat Wrote:

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> UK gas prices up another 13% this morning......its

> going to be a tough, tough winter if the wind

> doesnt blow consistently all winter (which it

> wont)....

[diable rouge]

I think Cat is referring to wholesale price, which will eventually filter down to the consumer...

[TheCat]

The evidence I have for the gas price being up is that the price to purchase natural gas in the UK is higher than it was yesterday:)

As DR says, its what most people would call the wholesale gas price.....which is now actually up 20% today as I type.....

(jokes aside, its something I can monitor on a live basis for my work - and it doesn't mean you'll suddenly be paying 20% more for your electricity tariff or gas tariff, but as DR also saya, some part of it will filter through in time)

[jazzer]

So can you post your data to show the increase, Quantitative data is the best way to demonstrate this.