Covid : the government think it is all over

[Spartacus]

This lunchtime bojo announced that he intends to bring the end of all covid restrictions forward a month and that in two weeks the 5 day isolation requirement if you catch it will end.

Yesterday 314 people died as a result of Covid and 66,183 people reported testing positive (how many didn't report their test results?)

Hardly seems over and if you no longer need to isolate, will we see a new spike in numbers where someone (for example) brings it into an office and infects everyone they work with.

I worry its a political gesture to win votes and whilst it's possibly designed to keep businesses open it may well have the opposite effect.

[TheCat]

There were 12,400 deaths in England and Wales last week, 11% of these were peeople 'with' a positive covid test in last 28 days.

While its morbid and unsavory (as we're talking about people's brothers, sisters, fathers, mothers etc behind the numbers), but zero covid is not a practical expectation.....so collectively as a society, we have to decide if 11% (but with a lower number likely to be with Covid as the primary casue of death) of all deaths in the peak season for respiriroty illness is too much or too little.....

[Spartacus]

It's not just deaths, although 11% seems a high figure and if there's a new variant then what will that do to the mortality rate, we also need to consider lost days through more people being off sick and the after effects (long covid) and what that does to people and productivity.

IMHO the number of cases say it's too early to stop isolating when you catch this virus that is a blood and respiratory condition.

Maybe the honest approach is that we as a society shouldn't be driven by the "must go into work unless I'm on my death bed" culture and embrace taking time off when ill or at the least working from home where it's possible 🤔

[diable rouge]

It's a difficult balancing act for sure, we do need to try and 'live with Covid' like we do with 'flu, keep the economy as open as possible etc, but we also know that Covid has the potential to mutate into something much nastier, and by dropping all restrictions we are at risk of creating a hothouse for it to do just that.

So I don't understand this Gov's obsession that all restrictions have to be lifted in order to 'get back our freedom', there are some like wearing masks in densely populated indoor spaces e.g. public transport and shops that could be retained without having an adverse effect on the economy.

Of course there's nothing to stop people doing that anyway, but one of the things that has struck me about the whole situation is how compliant people have been with the various rules. It seems unless some people are told what to do they won't do it even if it's in their best interest...

[Sephiroth]

Yep - we should go about our business but continue to wear masks as well as start to install better ventilation systems in schools etc (helpful in future pandemics as well)

Just dropping everything is deeply unhelpful - I was on buses and trains today where we were the only people wearing masks - so what is even the point. We don't wear masks to protect ourselves, we wear masks collectively to stop the spread. No rule - no wearing. It's so basic

[Spartacus]

Just had another thought

If we no longer need to isolate, will the requirement to do a LFT / PCR if we feel ill also be dropped ?

If so will that hinder the UKs ability to spot and react to new variants ?

[KidKruger]

I?d like to know what the numbers would be like in a situation where virtually everybody has been vaccinated.

Somehow I think deaths would be a lot lower, which may be more palatable from a ?let?s live with it? viewpoint.

Of course, we?ll never see that situation, due to the incomplete take-up of the vaccine.

[wordsworth]

I'll carry on wearing a mask.

[Sue]

According to the Zoe app, there are nearly 20,000 active cases in Southwark, which is up by over 3,000 from last week.

[Seabag]

Boris is just getting on with stuff

BREXIT ✅ DONE

COVID ✅ DONE

Next?

[JohnL]

Seabag Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Boris is just getting on with stuff

>

> BREXIT ✅ DONE

>

> COVID ✅ DONE

>

> Next?

> UK ✅ DONE

[KidKruger]

🤣

[diable rouge]

Some thoughts on the future Covid world from Prof Christina Pagel...

I keep being asked when we can go "back to normal" or "like it was before". My personal thoughts:

We've added a new disease to our population, more infectious and more severe than flu.

The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't.

Vaccines are amazing but do wane - esp vs sympomatic infection. Immunity from infection wanes too.

Surely Omicron has proven that high levels of antibodies in your population are no guarantee against v high levels of illness & disruption.

We *could* act as we used to & accept millions of people getting sick once or twice a year. Yearly education, business disruption. And gradually, a slightly sicker pop'n. That seems to be the current plan in UK and e.g. US.

But that's NOT the *old normal* - it's worse

We *can't* go back - but we *can* go forward *if* we accept we need some adaptations - driven by what we have *learned*.

Learning:

1. Outdoors is pretty safe - so let's invest research and funding into making indoor air as much like the outdoors as possible

It's *not* easy, but it *is* possible - we did it with clean water, electricity infrastructure, CFCs, telephone and broadband...

The best thing about cleaner indoor air is it works against *any* airborne disease and also reduces e.g. allergies.

2. Vaccinate the world as soon as possible - and keep working towards vaccines that are longer lasting and more variant proof.

3. Invest in global infrastructure to support surveillance of new variants of Covid *and* other new infectious diseases. There will be more.

Add permanent surveillance of Covid infection rates in UK to existing programmes for flu, measles etc in public health

5. Invest in understanding & treating longer term clinical impacts of Covid, inc organ damage & Long Covid + treatments (eg antivirals) for acute phase.

6. We need to urgently increase funding and staffing for NHS if it is expected to cope with regular Covid surges *and* existing backlogs *and* years of understaffing and not enough money.

This includes *supporting* existing staff to stay.

There *will* still be future surges. We need to have a plan to deal with these surges - as we do for other diseases.

A plan which is supported by the rapid outbreak identification & rapid understanding of virulence & transmission we've learned to do so well in the UK!

The plan might include (temp) reintroduction of large scale testing (inc better tests?), high quality masks in indoor spaces and - *if & only if* there is a serious threat from e.g. a new variant (or disease!) - further measures, such as targeted test, trace & isolate.

A plan should *not* mean long national lockdowns, which represent a failure of public health systems.

In fact, refusing to do the *learning* in "learning to live with Covid" is the biggest risk for such future lockdowns.

We also need to invest massively in reducing inequalities: in health, in housing, in workplaces, in sick pay, in education - this will make us more resilient to future outbreaks and reduce ill health and death - from Covid & everything else!

Both nationally & globally

Fundamentally, world is different now. Acting as if it isn't, which UK seems determined to do, may feel good in short term but will result in a new normal worse than the old one.

I prefer for us to build a new normal that's *better* than frequent sickness & disruption.