UKIP

[Jeremy]

There's a very real danger that this will spark more 'hard line' policies from the Tories. There's already talk of an EU referendum, tax breaks for "conventional" families (oh dear), and decrease of income tax (like that's what the country needs right now). So even though the chances of UKIP gaining any real power are slim, it seems that their brand of right wing politics may prove influential.

[stacey-lyn]

Jeremy, indeed - the Tories are already talking tougher.

UKIP's results are in part a knee jerk reaction by the disenfranchised voter and those that feel alienated by Cameron and his old Etonian advisors. Farage is also attractive to those who like to stick it to the 'nanny state' (eg pro smoking lobby) and to political correctness. Can you imagine Farage at the next leader's debate? Their manifesto is a work of fiction and the sums just don't add up. It's easy to make a multitude of promises when there is little to no chance of having to keep them.

Cameron has pledged to hold the referendum and it looks like they're forcing their hand for one soner rather than later.

On the same day as the Euro elections next May are the local elections with twice as many seats up for grabs. Realistically, they could win 1 or 2 in the parliamentary bi elections. Without fearmongering, I don't think we can underestimate them. UKIP did come 2nd in the Euro elections 4 years ago.

[Loz]

stacey-lyn Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> UKIP's results are in part a knee jerk reaction by the disenfranchised voter and those that feel

> alienated by Cameron and his old Etonian advisors.

I suspect you aren't a Tory voter, SL. Tories would hardly baulk at the party being run by old Etonians / public school types. That sort of comment is straight out of the Guardian Comment is Free section as written by all the dyed-in-the-wool Labourites on there. Bit like their 'I'll never vote LibDem again' - like they ever had.

However, I think you are sort of right about the 'disenfranchised voter' (another Guardian phrase?). I assume you mean people that no longer feel the big two/three offer them anything (as opposed to being prevented from voting). Part of this is due to the coming together of the three parties to try to occupy the centre right economically and centre left socially ground.

Miliband's cautious approach to announcing anything in the way of policies has fed this (leading to most people assuming - probably correctly - that a Labour government would offer much the same as we are getting now) and the LibDems now being mainstream and no longer attracting the protest vote.

Since Thatcher left office, Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron have all pretty much followed her lead. There is good reason for this: the vast majority of UK people want it. People aren't voting UKIP because it offers them what they want. In fact, I suspect most of the people who voted UKIP have actually no idea what their policies are. Nope, they voted UKIP because they are feeling the pinch and aren't happy. Labour aren't offering anything to them and the Tories and the LibDems are the incumbents. So, this was the best way of showing it.

This is not unusual for local elections (and Euro elections). Come the general election, it will be a vastly different matter. We just have to hope in the meantime that the big three don't pander too much to what is, in fact, a bit of an apparition. There is no actual substance to this protest in that it comes from a certain political viewpoint. It's really just a general protest.

That is, barring a fairly long held misapprehension that immigration is the cause of everyone's problems. The only way out of that one is to withdraw from Europe which would be an absolute disaster for the UK economy. It's kind of unbelievable the Tories would go for this, being, at its heart, the party of business. But they could be the danger here. I can't see Labour or the LibDems making much of a change. Though, with the unions on Miliband's back (since they got him elected) you just never know.

[uncleglen]

What was the turnout? After the expenses scandals people do not trust any of the main parties- I'd wager that all politicans are seen as self-serving vote-catchers by the majority who don't bother to vote.

[stacey-lyn]

uncleglen:

Folkestone West

Turnout

29.1%

Elham Valley

Turnout

34.9%

Hythe

Turnout

39.9%

Folkestone North East

Turnout

25.3%

Folkestone South

Turnout

24.0%

Romney Marsh

Turnout

32.1%

Sue Ransome and her daughters personified their success in Lincolnshire. It boils down to similar people with similar backgrounds speaking their language.

[silverfox]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> There's a very real danger that this will spark

> more 'hard line' policies from the Tories. There's

> already talk of an EU referendum, tax breaks for

> "conventional" families (oh dear), and decrease of

> income tax (like that's what the country needs

> right now). So even though the chances of UKIP

> gaining any real power are slim, it seems that

> their brand of right wing politics may prove

> influential.

Jeremy,

Just a couple of queries.

1. Why is an EU referendum a 'hard line policy'?

2. Why did you say 'Oh dear' after "...tax breaks for conventional families..."?

I agree UKIP's policies may prove influential. Thankfully, with our first past the post voting system (FPTP) UKIP is unlikely to gain real power, as they would under under Proportional Representation or Alternative Vote systems.

[Jeremy]

1. It represents a shift of the Tory policy towards Europe. From the current position of grudging compromise, to the possibility of exiting all together.

2. What is your understanding of a "conventional family"? Mine would be mum/dad/children. But to favour these families amounts to the same thing as penalising gay couples or single parent families.

[stacey-lyn]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> stacey-lyn Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > UKIP's results are in part a knee jerk reaction

> by the disenfranchised voter and those that feel

> > alienated by Cameron and his old Etonian

> advisors.

>

> I suspect you aren't a Tory voter, SL. Tories

> would hardly baulk at the party being run by old

> Etonians / public school types.

Umm, not sure if the likes of David Davis would agree. Btw, have you read the Tele lately? And the frowns over Jo Johnson's appointment.

>And That sort of

> comment is straight out of the Guardian Comment is

> Free section as written by all the

> dyed-in-the-wool Labourites on there.

Not that it matters but I'm not a Guardian subscriber, Loz, but thanks for the heads up. Note to self: avoid unintentional 'Guardianisms'.

> Bit like

> their 'I'll never vote LibDem again' - like they

> ever had.

>

> However, I think you are sort of right about the

> 'disenfranchised voter'

Jolly good.

>(another Guardian

> phrase?).

. . . see above.

>I assume you mean people that no longer

> feel the big two/three offer them anything (as

> opposed to being prevented from voting).

Indeed.

>There is good reason for this: the vast

> majority of UK people want it. People aren't

> voting UKIP because it offers them what they want.

> In fact, I suspect most of the people who voted

> UKIP have actually no idea what their policies

> are. Nope, they voted UKIP because they are

> feeling the pinch and aren't happy. Labour aren't

> offering anything to them and the Tories and the

> LibDems are the incumbents.

So, 'disenfranchised'.

>So, this was the best

> way of showing it.

> This is not unusual for local elections (and Euro

> elections). Come the general election, it will be

> a vastly different matter. We just have to hope in

> the meantime that the big three don't pander too

> much to what is, in fact, a bit of an apparition.

Apparition? Hardly. It's shaken the mainstream at home. However we're still in the post victory bubble.

> There is no actual substance to this protest in

> that it comes from a certain political viewpoint.

> It's really just a general protest.

The folk of Lincolnshire and Kent et al who voted with UKIP conviction would disagree.

[numbers]

where's Huguenot when you need him?

*dials Fisk Police*

[uncleglen]

Thanks s-l. If people vote UKIP in the same proportion as these local elections in a general election then we are in for another 15- odd years of misery since Labour will win the next election.

[El Pibe]

spot on

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/05/nigel-farage-succeed-politics-charlie-brooker

[????]

........even the bit where Boris is described as an MP?

[El Pibe]

Mayor of Partytown?