The newly landscaped Dulwich Square

[Earl Aelfheah]

On 08/07/2025 at 17:16, Rockets said:

A PCSO knocking on people's doors giving residents leaflets about how to combat crime in the area......they said that the road closures had lead to increases in crime - for example there is a real problem with moped scams at the moment where mopeds deliberately drive into cars to make insurance claims

Some good news posted by ianr on another thread, regarding 'crash for cash' scams. Surprisingly, the police statement makes no mention of 'road closures' (a traffic filter) in Dulwich https://www.cityoflondon.police.uk/news/city-of-london/news/2025/july/ifed-executes-five-warrants-across-east-and-south-london-in-major-crash-for-cash-investigation/

[Rockets]

@Earl Aelfheah ha ha.

You're just bitter that PCSOs are telling people that the LTNs have increased crime in the area. Are you suggesting that what the PCSOs are telling people is wrong or a lie just to annoy folks like you?

Speak to anyone who lives in the area and they will tell you certain types of crime are increasing - about phone snatches, knife-point robberies, moped crash-for-cash scams, masked criminals on electric bikes terrorising people in Dulwich Park, cars full of masked criminals breaking into work vans, cars with false plates being used in robberies and the police are giving advice to residents on how to report and, hopefully, manage the problems.

This is why the PCSOs were door-knocking and that's when they said what they said. You can deny it all you want but posting things like your previous mischievous post with your barbed and ludicrous comment in relation to a note from the City of London police is only going to re-highlight the fact but well done for bringing to the top of the message board again so people are aware!

[HeadNun]

Hi Rockets, I'm not challenging this and have no particular views on LTNs either way, but I'm genuinely interested to know how they are increasing crime. 

[Insuflo]

I’d be genuinely interested to know exactly when and where these PCSOs were out knocking on doors to warn Dulwich Village denizens of a crime wave. It sounds like an extraordinary policing tactic. Especially given that the stats for reported crimes for the DV ward (up to May 2025) don’t show any increase but a downward trend.
 

How many homes did they visit? Surely not every street in the ward, so which streets did they concentrate on? Did they distribute a leaflet, if so can we see it? 

[Earl Aelfheah]

4 hours ago, Rockets said:

Speak to anyone who lives in the area and they will tell you certain types of crime are increasing - about phone snatches, knife-point robberies, moped crash-for-cash scams, masked criminals on electric bikes terrorising people in Dulwich Park, cars full of masked criminals breaking into work vans, cars with false plates being used in robberies

 ...all of these linked to a road filter on Calton Avenue introduced 5 years ago? Wow. That's almost unbelievable.

Edited yesterday at 13:55 by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

4 hours ago, Insuflo said:

I’d be genuinely interested to know exactly when and where these PCSOs were out knocking on doors to warn Dulwich Village denizens of a crime wave.

It was a few weeks ago and they were handing out flyers about things you can do to prevent thefts - buying crook locks etc. Two of them - a male and a female PCSO - working the roads. They were doing the roads around Dovercourt, Woodwarde, Druce etc - the areas that the problems are particularly pronounced.

2 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

That's almost unbelievable.

You know what they say about denial @Earl Aelfheah. I can assure you it very much happened, you might not believe it but it did. How do I know, because they knocked on our door and I spoke to them.......what makes you so sceptical or is it just in your nature when you hear something you really don't want to believe?

5 hours ago, HeadNun said:

Hi Rockets, I'm not challenging this and have no particular views on LTNs either way, but I'm genuinely interested to know how they are increasing crime. 

The PCSOs did not elaborate but I think the issue is that the types of crime that are increasing rely on people not witnessing it or intervening and the criminals like nothing more than quiet roads to do that. The moped scam is a classic example - if someone actually sees what happened they can't distract - in fact, people locally are discussing that going to aid the victim usually encourages the criminals to leave the scene. They target lone cars so no-one witnesses it.

Phone thefts are the same - they like to approach people on quiet roads and don't want anyone to interfere with their escape or to warn the victim.

LTNs do create much quieter streets - that is one of their advantages  but there may well be a downside to that as well. When I looked at the crime figures some time ago (and posted them on here) the types of crime were changing with the aforementioned categories growing.

Bottom-line is that the people who live in the area are becoming increasingly aware of the issue and the police (and PCSOs) are going to alert people. Just walk down any of those roads and see how many people have crook locks on their cars.

And this is all being reflected in the Village activity links: https://www.police.uk/pu/your-area/metropolitan-police-service/dulwich-village/?yourlocalpolicingteam=policing-priorities

• Priority:

  Robbery and Theft - Dealing with robberies and theft snatch throughout the ward, prodominately aimed at school students.

  Issued 01 July 2025

  Action taken:

  Increased high visibility patrols at school run times around the ward. Educating students and residents by handing out crime prevention advice leaflets.

  Actioned 01 July 2025

• Priority:

  Dealing with crimes related to motor vehicles - including theft of motor vehicle, theft from a motor vehicle and vehicle interference.

  Issued 01 July 2025

  Action taken:

  Patrolling targeted areas, highlighting vulnerable vehicles and offering advice for target hardening. Leaflets and reassurance crime advice. Varying shift patterns to allow patrols later in the evenings and nights.

  Actioned 01 July 2025

• Priority:

  Our latest community survey highlighted an increased concern regarding Violence against Women and Girls within Dulwich Village, including areas within the ward which are particularly dark and leave members of the community feeling vulnerable.

  Issued 01 July 2025

  Action taken:

  Enhanced high visibility patrols will be completed, working with partner agencies to reduce darker areas of the ward and using data lead policing to reduce crime by bringing offenders to justice.

  Actioned 01 July 2025

 

Edited yesterday at 15:18 by Rockets

[HeadNun]

I think it's great that police are being pro-active around here and knocking on doors. 

[Insuflo]

The priorities for the DV SNT listed are pretty much the same as for all SNTs locally. The crime figures do not back up your hysteria:

https://www.met.police.uk/area/your-area/met/southwark/dulwich-village/about-us/top-reported-crimes-in-this-area 

I’ll take your advice and look into the window of every car in the area to see if they are fitted with the kind anti theft devices that have been in use by every motorist in Britain for the last 50 years. That will definitely prove your contention that Dulwich Village is turning into Grand Theft Auto.

[HeadNun]

Well the numbers in the nearby Goose Green ward have risen sharply recently, Insuflo. https://www.met.police.uk/area/your-area/met/southwark/goose-green/about-us/top-reported-crimes-in-this-area

I wouldn't call it hysteria - plenty of people on this forum have witnessed or been victims of crime. 

Whether it's to do with LTNs, I have no idea and don't really care either way. But there's no doubt criminals are operating in quiet, dark streets, as the report Rockets posted suggests, esp VAGW. 

[Insuflo]

20 minutes ago, HeadNun said:

Well the numbers in the nearby Goose Green ward have risen sharply recently, Insuflo. 

No they haven’t. The link you posted to the Goose Green figures shows that reported crime has not significantly increased in the last year.

[HeadNun]

Oh yes you're right! 😬

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

4 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

 ...all of these linked to a road filter on Calton Avenue introduced 5 years ago? Wow. That's almost unbelievable.

Some would say incredible.

But then again, it's a bit like Mr Blobby caused global warming. Before Noel Edmonds's second most evil creation appeared on TV, global warming wasn't a problem and no-one ever mentioned it. Now...it's an existential threat to the world. Makes you think.

[exdulwicher]

2 hours ago, Rockets said:

It was a few weeks ago and they were handing out flyers about things you can do to prevent thefts

The fire brigade also go around telling you to check your smoke alarms (in fact the "community fire" service provides free checks if you ask), turn off your gas, check your escape routes and so on - that doesn't mean every other house is burning down or that fires have increased, that's called preventative tactics cos it's a lot easier and cheaper for all concerned if the fire doesn't happen in the first place.

Same with crime - most of it is opportunistic so if you're wandering through a park (any park, not just one with an LTN 500m down the road) looking at your phone and with your earphones in, it's really quite simple for a "jogger" or a hoodie on a bike to nip past you and grab the thing. Sensible advice along the lines of "pay attention to what's around you" is part and parcel of normal preventative policing. 

I know how much you love data and rely on it for everything so try looking at the actual crime figures. Dulwich has not suddenly turned into gangland LA because a few dozen square metres of road has been closed to cars.

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

Recorded crime in the area has slightly fallen (probably not to a degree that is statistically significant). No one doubts however, that the police are warning people about crime prevention measures.

What I personally doubt, is that police are claiming there has been a recent increase in crime caused by a road filter introduced half a decade ago.

As usual, there is no evidence whatsoever provided for that claim. It is also notable that the only person to have heard this from a police officer, is the same individual with a well documented history of making wild, unsubstantiated, and often objectively false claims in relation to the negative impacts of the aforementioned road filter.

[DulvilleRes]

A friend of mine had their phone snatched recently on East Dulwich Grove, which rather questions the thesis that roads within an LTN have led to some kind of crime epidemic. 

[HeadNun]

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Recorded crime in the area has slightly fallen (probably not to a degree that is statistically significant). No one doubts however, that the police are warning people about crime prevention measures.

 

It's good to know it's fallen slightly. But it certainly feels like it's increased. I'm sure I see a lot more police cars on blues about and hear more about phone snatching and car theft etc. But maybe it's just because people report it a lot on here and so I'm paying more attention to it than I used to. 

[Rockets]

I just love the predictable response by some to this thread - oh so reminiscent of the reaction by councillors when TFL dared to suggest that the increase in traffic on Croxted Road was due to the Dulwich LTNs......all a bit aggressive knee-jerk to desperately try to ensure the narrative that there is only good to come from LTNs is sent..... 

18 hours ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

What I personally doubt, is that police are claiming there has been a recent increase in crime caused by a road filter introduced half a decade ago.

Well @Earl Aelfheah you can doubt all you want but unfortunately that doesn't change what a PCSO was saying. Your tone suggests you doubt what I am saying or I am making it up - well I am not.

Have any of you naysayers actually spoken to anyone who lives in the Dulwich LTN area and asked them about whether they feel there is an increase in crime?

@DulvilleRes your name suggests you live in the area - what's the buzz on your street?

Now, of course, you can debate all you like whether this is because of the road closures or not but there is a distinct perception that crime is increasing - every day those who live on the streets are hearing about crimes, police and PCSOs are pro-actively knocking on houses within the LTN to advise residents how to avoid being a victim of crime - yet the posters on this forum say...."nope, this is a lie, everything is awesome"....

[newresidentindulwich]

I live in the village and haven’t noticed any increase. I always feel safe here. We had our car broken into once, but that was a couple of years before the ltn was installed. Have seen two cycle-by phone thefts, both at the East Dulwich Grove/Townley crossroads. This sort of theft sadly seems to be on the rise generally across the city and has little to do with the Dulwich ltn.

Never had a knock from the police but we may have been out…

[alice]

17 hours ago, DulvilleRes said:

A friend of mine had their phone snatched recently on East Dulwich Grove, which rather questions the thesis that roads within an LTN have led to some kind of crime epidemic. 

That’s just funny.  Thank you

[Earl Aelfheah]

@Rockets Just a very quick look at the crime map and it is immediately clear there is zero correlation between the filter on calton avenue and the most common crime sites in se21.

Overall, reported crimes are down compared to May last year (May being the most recent month for which we have stats). 

Even if we pretend that there had been evidence of a recent surge in crime related to a traffic filter on Calton Avenue - why the 5 year lag? Why has it happened now, half a decade after it was introduced? It's just nonsense. Much like your claim that the filter increased pollution, or reduced pedestrian safety (where in both cases, the evidence points to the exact opposite being true).

Not one other person on this forum has heard police making the extremely dubious claim that a long established road filter has led to a recent surge in crime; Only you. What an astounding coincidence. 

46 minutes ago, Rockets said:

Your tone suggests you doubt what I am saying or I am making it up

I doubt what you are saying.

Edited 10 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

40 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Overall, reported crimes are down compared to May last year (May being the most recent month for which we have stats). 

You appear to be selectively plucking a month vs month comparison - what is important is the trend and that shows a upward trend in reported crimes in Dulwich Village (see below) over the last 3 years (see below)

 

 

 

@Earl Aelfheah as I said to you previously I did the analysis in 2024 on the growth in certain types of crime and I repost it below for your benefit. Certain types of crime have, particularly been on the increase in the Dulwich Village Ward since 2021 (as far back as police records went back on their data website at the time I did the research). When I have time I will see what the trend was for 2024 as well but I can't seem to find the month-by-month breakdown that I used before.

But - not only has crime overall been increasing but certain types of crime have been growing exponentially since 2021. That is a fact.

 

33 minutes ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

I doubt what you are saying.

Of course you do; but it neither surprises me nor concerns me. But that doesn't make it wrong or a lie. I am 100% certain that your scepticism is wrong! Next time I will ask them if they might mind me recording them to video saying what they said to keep Earl happy...but I am sure you'll probably try to question that too!!! 😉

 

 

In the Dulwich Village ward overall reported crime is up over the last year and over the last 3 years.

Now, it's a bit of  challenge trying to understand where the type of crime that is becoming such a problem locally is logged but there are three categories where it would reside when reported: robbery (where theft, a weapon or violence is used), theft from a person or other theft (phone snatches are filed as other).

 

Now over the last three years all three categories have been growing considerably in the Dulwich Village ward:

2021 (data from Jan 21 missing due to 3 year cut-off):

Robbery: 17

Theft from person: 4

Other theft: 45

 

2022

Robbery: 28

Theft from person:  23

Other theft: 96

 

2023

Robbery: 49

Theft from person: 35

Other theft: 77

 

January 2024

Robbery: 5

Theft from person: 7

Other theft: 6

[exdulwicher]

You're like a one-man Daily Mail headline.

You could literally write that in 1990 there were ZERO mobile phone thefts and now there are DOZENS every month! CRIME WAVE! CHAOS on the streets of Dulwich. 

Oh wait, no-one had mobile phones in 1990, of course there were zero thefts...

I think you need to re-examine your ideas of correlation and causation.

[Earl Aelfheah]

2 hours ago, Rockets said:

You appear to be selectively plucking a month vs month comparison - what is important is the trend and that shows a upward trend in reported crimes in Dulwich Village (see below) over the last 3 years (see below)

Nope. I picked the most recent month for which we have data and compared it with the same month last year - because you clamed a recent increase. It shows a drop in reported crime compared to the same month last year (albeit, the numbers are too small for it to be statistically significant). The chart you've shared showing data for 3 years does not show an upward trend. It's weird that you've said it does.

2 hours ago, Rockets said:

as I said to you previously I did the analysis in 2024 on the growth in certain types of crime and I repost it below for your benefit

'Analysis' 🤣. Where is your baseline against the London or national average? If you're claiming it's linked to a traffic filter, surely you have looked at a control area? I know you're really meticulous when it comes to critiquing methodology 🤣

[Edited to add] - whilst I'm loath to spend time playing your games, a quick check shows those stats you've quoted above for robbery are highly questionable (I suspect the others are too). If you take the first 5 months of 2025 (up to May - the most recent month we have data for) and compare it to the first five months of 2024, robberies are lower (20 in 2024, 16 in 2025). Obviously these numbers are too small to be statistically significant, but it does not show a recent increase in robberies as you've suggested. 

Edited 7 hours ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Rockets]

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

The chart you've shared showing data for 3 years does not show an upward trend. It's weird that you've said it does.

What on earth does it show then? 

 

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

'Analysis' 🤣. Where is your baseline against the London or national average? If you're claiming it's linked to a traffic filter, surely you have looked at a control area? I know you're really meticulous when it comes to critiquing methodology 🤣

Err the baseline is the previous year's stats for the Dulwich Village ward....the discussion is whether crime is increasing in Dulwich Village and clearly certain types of crime are. I suggest it is you who are playing games. Year-on-year certain types of crime were increasing significantly within the area. It's there in black and white and shows that your claims are not based in fact...but again you chose to argue as it doesn't suit your agenda... Let's be honest, we have been here before.

1 hour ago, exdulwicher said:

You're like a one-man Daily Mail headline.

Ha ha, if all else fails and you're losing the battle accuse someone of being a reader of, creator of Daily Mail right-wing headlines....Ex- I expected better from you! 😉 - don't stoop to your cohort's levels!

1 hour ago, Earl Aelfheah said:

Edited to add - whilst I'm loath to spend time playing your games, a quick check shows those stats you've quoted above for robbery are highly questionable (I suspect the others are too). If you take the first 5 months of 2025 (up to May - the most recent month we have data for) and compare it to the first five months of 2024, robberies are lower (20 in 2024, 16 in 2025). Obviously these numbers are too small to be statistically significant, but it does not show a recent increase in robberies as you've suggested. 

Err these stats were taken from the Police website plotting monthly reported crime in Dulwich Village - are you now also doubting those are true too....first PCSOs now the Police website - do you have trouble believing anyone when the story doesn't suit your narrative?

I have now found the monthly breakdown (it can be found on the crime map for the Village Ward https://www.police.uk/pu/your-area/metropolitan-police-service/dulwich-village/?yourlocalpolicingteam=about-us&tab=crimemap) and let's continue to look at the actual numbers shall we to include 2024....theft from person almost doubled year on year and is on course to be higher again this year - how do you explain that? In fact all of those 3 categories were up year on year from 2023 to 2024. 

2021 (data from Jan 21 missing due to 3 year cut-off):

Robbery: 17

Theft from person: 4

Other theft: 45

 

2022

Robbery: 28

Theft from person:  23

Other theft: 96

 

2023

Robbery: 49

Theft from person: 35

Other theft: 77

 

2024

Robbery: 62

Theft from person: 61

Other theft: 78

 

2025 up to and including May

 

Robbery: 16

Theft from person: 34

Other theft: 18

 

[Earl Aelfheah]

9 minutes ago, Rockets said:

Err these stats were taken from the Police website plotting monthly reported crime in Dulwich Village - are you now also doubting those are true too

The data from the Police website show that for the first 5 months of 2025 (up to May - the most recent month we have data for) there were 16 robberies. For the same comparison period - first five months of 2024 - there were 20.

There is also zero evidence of any link to the road filter.

It's just nonsense.