The economy, a sensible debate in advance of the budget

[malumbu]

@Sephiroth you made some interesting points on the economy, on the Lammy thread.

Thought it worth broadening the discussion.

Reeves (irrespective of her financial competence) clearly was too downbeat on things when Labour came into power.

But could there have been more honesty on the liklihood of taxes going up (which they have done, and will do in any case due to the freezing of personal allowances).  It may have been a silly commitment not to do this, but were you damned if you do and damned if you don't?

[Earl Aelfheah]

Yes, they should clearly have been more honest on taxes before the election and not backed themselves into a corner. After 14 years of mismanagement and decline, they have to invest and at the same time start to bring borrowing down (otherwise they continues to be at the mercy of the bond markets). Continued cuts / degrading of public services is counter productive (a successful economy and society needs good infrastructure, education and health care). 

The single biggest thing they could do to immediately improve growth would be to rejoin the single market, but I appreciate that is difficult politically. 

So if you can't significantly boost growth short term, can't cut too much further, and need to raise money without borrowing, that only really leaves taxation. 

 

Of course, where best to target those taxes - that's the real question.

Edited 1 hour ago by Earl Aelfheah

[Angelina]

or cut costs. 

The cost of debt is a huge burden, it cannot be increased.

[Spartacus]

Today we are seeing the impact of increased taxes (employers NI) with tje UK unemployment rate rising 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo

Unfortunately, to increase tax burdens will see the economy stall or a recession, as Angelina says, cutting spending, whilst painful short term, is a good way to bring down government borrowing. 

True, we don't want to see cuts to services but there are other areas of government spending that can be reduced and with AI impacting all jobs across all businesses, maybe it will also reduce overall staffing costs. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Spartacus

[Sephiroth]

1 hour ago, Angelina said:

or cut costs. 

The cost of debt is a huge burden, it cannot be increased.

After 14 years of austerity I’m not sure where you would find costs to cut 

I mean it’s been 15 years - “short term” isn’t the word I would use