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messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 10, 06:54PM

Yes those are interesting points Keano. I did pick up on the scramble emerging as different members make demands on what they want in any trade deal. We still have to remember, that we are the first nation to ever leave, and sorting the trade agreement is new territory. The French want their fishing rights protected. The Germans their car exports protected. And it goes on. It is a lot easier to negotiate something new than let it go of something that already exists.

If another global financial crisis comes off the back of Coronavirus it will be more brutal this time. Banking has nowhere to go on interest rates and economies still recovering from 2008 will be in real trouble.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 March 10, 07:30PM

Yes Blah Blah.

There’s a sobering article in the Guardian regarding Italy’s precarious position, especially financially and the risk of contagion.

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by pk March 12, 10:28AM

whilst I know that no-one could have foreseen that a virus would hit the world so hard now, if the world is going into a health and economic crisis, it's not a good time to have said you want to terminate your most important existing trade deals without anything to replace them when no-one else's priority will be to get a trade deal done with the UK as they'll have other issues to deal with

even EU talks will be/have been suspended

at least the government are starting to acknowledge that their arbitrary deadline is likely to need moving

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 12, 10:52AM

Technology offers solutions to some of these problems. Online conferencing may well become the norm while this pandemic works through. But even with that, I can not see any trade negotiations anywhere being high on the list of things to do for the next few months. If as predicted, up to 20% of the world's workers being off sick and closures of public spaces kick in, there will be far more important issues pressing on economic and supply issues. In many ways, a pandemic is like a world war, in terms of the disruption to supply lines and resources. Everything will change, even if we do not know to what degree as yet. I don't think Boris will lose any face either by seeking extension to the 'transition' in these conditions.

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by keano77 March 12, 10:57AM

True pk, the timing is unfortunate but not disastrous - the U.K. can always trade on WTO terms if need be.

Potentially there could be worldwide financial and economic carnage. There’s talk Italian banks might need as much as a €700 billion bailout (the biggest in history) which the eurozone couldn’t cope with alone and would need the help of the IMF and US.

[www.marketwatch.com]

Ironically such a bailout could actually strengthen the euro in the long term as Italy might be forced to accept fiscal union rather than leave the eurozone.

[www.telegraph.co.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by JohnL March 12, 11:09AM

I would have thought the pressure would be on to extend the transition period due to extraordinary events rather than trade on WTO terms.

Strangely it's the Express saying this - are Reach PLCs papers journalist sharing smiling smiley

[www.express.co.uk]

messageRe: EU Trade Talks Thread
Posted by Blah Blah March 12, 11:15AM

Yeah, there is a reason why most countries do not trade on WTO terms solely. To lose our biggest export market on top of a global economic meltdown around this virus would be very foolish. In any case, there is likely to be a global readjustment depending on the economic impacts, which may run deeper than the 2008 crash. I don't see how any good trade deal can be agreed in the middle of such volatility.

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