I'm not sure you can talk about odds in that context. You have to put down 6 schools on your application in order of preference, so if you put Goodrich first and Heber second and they both had space for you, Southwark would offer you a place at Goodrich. The pecking order is:- special needs; fostered(?); siblings; other, and is done on distance as the crow flies. So if the number of SEN/siblings etc. use up all or most of the spaces, there may not be any space left for "other". Although to put it into perspective, our closest school is also St A's and we live c400m from both Goodrich and Heber with Heber being slightly closer. 2 years ago we put Heber first, Goodrich second and got offered a place at Goodrich.