jimlad48

I used the ONS website - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12 Powerful stuff and makes you realise frankly how few people have died of COVID in London relative to many other causes of death.

Lets also look at the deaths. From what I can make out, since May, 3 people have died in the Dulwich area of COVID. Thats not exactly a reason to panic.

lameduck Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I like the Memsaab, and was thinking of booking a > table > for my family as a treat, but its not good if you > book an early table, > half way through your meal, the place starts > filling up to capacity, > And you think, what do I do, carry on eating, or > buggering off. > because you are worried, I like foxy am old, and > take little risks, not many. > But I dont like, risks, being taken by others, > where I am concerned. > Nobody should be put at any unnecessary risks. This level of undue paranoia is destroying our economy. Currently 0.005% of the population have COVID19 Barely 500 people are in hospital and less than 70 of whom are on ventilators. Meanwhile flu and cold are killing 6 times as many people as COVID yet no one cares. Chill out, go out and relax - you literally have nothing to worry about.

Sounds like a sensible place and one I'd frequent. Good to see some businesses not buying into the COVID hysteria and just getting on with life.

TGhis - absolutely this. In 2014/15 almost 30,000 people died of flu in the UK - we didn't look at even the most basic of lockdown procedures and no one really noticed outside of those who had known people. Today we have destroyed our national economy and created a state of near panic in some quarters over a bug that is killing roughly the same number of people, and if you read the stats each day it makes clear that hospital deaths are linked to people, all of whom have pre-existing serious health conditions. COVID is not the mass killer we think it is - its just a flu bug and its doing what those bugs always do. Can we please just get back to normal and stop acting like armageddon has arrived? Ole Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The wording of the official reported Covid deaths > are of people who have died having tested positive > for Covid. > > The official wording is very interesting and has > been chosen very deliberately. > > Note that it is not people who have died OF covid, > nor people who have died WITH Covid. > > This wording implies that if you tested positive > for Covid 3 months ago, and then got run over by a > bus, you'd be included in the Covid deaths. It > also implies that if years later you die of a > stroke, you could be included in the official > covid deaths number. This wording leaves the door > open for all kinds of message for years to come. > > There is no doubt that there has been excess > deaths in these past few months, but there is also > no doubt that in the last 2 years there has been > very mid flu and respiratory disease seasons with > fewer excess deaths. Will this balance itself out > by the end of the year? Perhaps, but there is no > doubt that there is also going to be a lot more > excess cancer, cardiovascular and mental health > deaths. There is also going to be increased > poverty, and poverty increases morbidity. Will > these deaths be counted as Covid deaths? > > Which is the most credible side? A good > statistician can argue for either.

Everyone is acting in a way that suggests that somehow I want to line up and kill people off - don't be so utterly hyperbolic. I am merely stating the cold hard and uncomfortable truth that bugs like COVID can and do kill people every year, particularly those with terminal conditions. We may not want to hear this, and we may be uncomfortable accepting this, but if you look each year, if there is a bad flu season, excess deaths soar - and its the same population. We regularly accept and take for granted that a heavy flu season will kill 20-30,000 excess people and as a society we are completely accepting of this. Yet COVID has caused some people to act in a way which suggests they think that no bug of this type has ever killed people before. I genuinely think if we'd done nothing then we would probably have not noticed much difference to society. But we've instead chosen to take the most radical and extreme response, shutting our economy down, doing massive long term harm to it, and harming our ability to fund the NHS on the medium to long term. We've deliberately chosen to pause access to healthcare for many people who need it to get them treatement that could make difference between a positive or very bad prognosis, and we're doing so in order fundamentally to shield those who are always at risk regardless. This isn't eugenics, this is a simple truth - flu bugs kill certain swathes of people each year, we've accepted this for centuries, and now we're acting as if this is the first time we've found this out. We've also massively overblown in the public mind the risk - research shows that in surveys members of the public think that 7% of the UK population has died from COVID, not something like 0.001% (many of whom would have died anyway of something else this year) - we've lost the ability to think rationally and objectively. I don't doubt guidance made sense for those at risk, and in very targeted areas - but the blanket approach was too much, for too long and it has done far more damage to us as a country than a relatively small number of deaths. In years to come I genuinely think the history books will say that we overreacted and that the damage done in the medium to long term vastly outweighed the good done in the short term.

macutd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > the reason why you wear a mask to to not transmit > it to others. So while you are not wearing a mask > Jim you could be killing me. So we won't be > leading our lives at all. The science on masks isn't proven, so I'm happy to not wear one thanks. If you want to wear one, crack on and I'll respect that. But I'm afraid it has to be personal choice, and my choice is not to wear a mask if at all possible - I find them uncomfortable, steam glasses up and hamper communication and I'm not remoptely convinced of the need. Just look at Sweden or Netherlands. We've rushed into a tabloid driven fear based outcome without dealing with the science to underpin it, and this way lies disaster for our national economy. How do you think we'll pay for the NHS in years to come - because right now its not looking good.

se22cat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I sincerely hope you catch it & are removed from > the gene-pool with asinine opinions like that, > "jim" Thanks - chances are as I'm not remotely target audience I won't but you never know. Wear what you want, let those of us who don't care lead our lives as normal please. This article nicely sums my views up as to what a total overreaction this has been - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8585039/Professor-Robert-Dingwall-calls-sense-proportion-brands-Covid-19-nasty-infection.html

Personally I'll choose to go to the one that doesnt enforce mask wearing. Wear one if you want to, but I'm tired of the hysterical overreaction, attack on our civil liberties all because of a bug that is doing what bugs do and having a clear out of the vulnerable who always die of these things. Sorry, bluntly put, we're screwing our economy to buy a week or two extra for people with severe life limiting illnesses anyway. Meanwhile the NHS is being forced to delay all manner of treatments for plenty of other conditions, which could be saved because of COVID. How many people are going to die who could have been saved because we're trying to protect those who are likely on their way out anyway? I am utterly fed up of watching friends businesses collapse, people end up unemployed, education suffer all to protect a tiny minority of people. The cases nationally are miniscule, but we've essentially chosen to bankrupt the country and put future generations in debt to protect people on the basis of some very dodgy science and statistic use and a set of guidelines thare nonsensical. I'd take it more seriously if it was blanket masks everywhere, but its not - the guidance makes no sense, its being invented on the hoof and relies on stupidity like refusing permission to go to a friends house, but allowing you to meet them in Nandos for dinner - this is neither coherent nor sensible. Meanwhile Cummings and his ilk get away with anything they want... Give us back normal life and let those who want to take precautions and others do as they wish.

Chinooks make a disctinctive 'wokka wokka' sound as they have two sets of rotors. They do fly over london but the route is via the Thames and they're usually in transit to Colchester where the Army has its main air assault force based. You won't see them over ED directly - the closest you may get is the odd Apache, but again these keep to near the Thames. Military aircraft won't exercise over London - there are other locations where this happens - they are passing through as its a convenient route to their destination. What is circling is usually police traffic - noisy and more noticeable as its lower level.

Sadly I'm afraid you're wrong on many counts, I'll post this once to avoid thread derailment and leave it there and not reply to further pathethic personal attacks. I care deeply about the NHS, I have friends and family who have worked in it all their lives. I also know that if we don't do something soon, we won't be able to afford it soon, and then if you think this is bad, wait till the worst austerity you can imagine coming our way in the midst of the biggest economic crisis we've ever seen, and then wait for the cuts that follow. Thats why I want to get back to normal, because if we don't, the NHS we profess to love will face cuts of an enormous level. Thats far worse than COVID and may kill many more than COVID will. As for the beggars etc, oh do give it a rest. I find this forum is full of people who like an echo chamber and the moment you question their view, they do come up with some ridiculous falsehoods - the abuse I've taken over the years on CPZs is truth of this - I've had a ridiculous amount of invented falsehoods and outright lies about myself and what I believe in, for the audacity of saying that a CPZ isn't a bad thing. Now apparently I'm questionable because I have committed the cardinal sin of saying I'm a remainer yet because I haven't posted on this forum on Brexit, that means I can't be a remainer? Maybe its because I'm not particularly interested in discussing Brexit in general, and I've not had the slightest interest in discussing it here and the only reason I mentioned it was because someone assumed I was some kind of Brexiteer earlier in the thread. I wasn't aware that mentioning your political leanings on this forum only counts as true if you have an extensive posting count to back it up. Finally we come to the conclusion that I'm a selfish oaf based on nothing more than a decidedly biased reading of my posts. Great, so now we come to the mud slinging and insult stage of the forum when people tired of trying to engage with views they don't like, decide to just launch personal attacks instead on myself without engaging in debate. I'm not going to give you the satisfaction of a 'yeah well your mum' type response - because its pathetically obvious you want me to engage in a slanging match. How utterly pathetic. Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > jimlad likes brutal honesty and home truths > > jim doesn't like young kids and isn't THAT fussed > about old people living or dying > > jim doesn't understand escalation or exponential > growth (Seemingly) - the idea that a contagion a > species isn't equipped to deal with might > overwhelm it just isn't part of his purview > > jim not keen on beggars either - I doubt many of > us like the reality but most of us can muster > empathy > > jim claims he's a "centre left remainer" and yet > little in his posting history backs this up > > a remainer with no posts about brexit > > ("well I just don't think it's that important and > I respect democracy. But I will fill out two pages > of EDF posts about CPZ") > > One can only come to the conclusion, being honest > and brutal, that jim is a bit of a selfish oaf, > regardless of his political leanings

My point all along has been very simple. We have overreacted, we have chosen to shut down in the most extreme way and in doing so we have caused enormous and long lasting damage to our national economy. In March a short lockdown made sense while we understood what this was. Now we know what it is, we can accept that actually COVID is not a threat to most people. The impact of this will be felt for decades. We have to accept that the people the virus targets are overwhelmingly those who fall ill and die from harsh viruses, the elderly the infirm and the very sick. Now, we can either accept this and move on, and put in place appropriate low key precautions like we use for flu, but accept that if you are elderly you probably need to self isolate, or we can completly screw our economy and way of life. For the numbers this is affecting, for the fact that most are very elderly and often with multiple reasons for cause of death (I understand many COVID linked death certificates for elderly people usually have 3 or 4 factors, not just COVID), we have to have a sensible conversation about whether it is worth it. My firm view is that it is not. We're forcing millions of people into unemployment, causing thousands of businesses and retailers to collapse, disrupting the service sector to a point where it may never fully recover and for what - to protect someone who all the likelihood is was going to die this year anyway? Yes thats blunt and yes I get some of you may not like that, but we've followed a path of killing our economy and this won't just be felt this year, it will be felt for many decades to come. I am taking a long term view here - I want the economy to survive and be strong enough that we can fund services, health care and not have mass unemployment - we only get this by returning to business as usual ASAP. What about those who suffer from a variety of conditions who didnt get help needed - like smear tests, or the fact that heart attack calls are 50% down? How many people who may have had many decades of life ahead of them have died due to the system protecting the elderly? So yes, lets not beat around the bush here and lets discuss blunt truths. We've paid and are continuing to pay a phenomenally high price to protect people who are at the end of their lives. I strongly suspect this years overall Jan-Dec death toll will actually not be significantly higher as many of those who would have gone, have gone earlier due to COVID, and we'll actually see a fairly normal year. I hope and pray sanity comes back soon and I can go to the pub, go shopping and see friends and family and not feel like every part of life that makes it worth living has been taken away from us for absolutely no good reason. first mate Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Accepting that despite our best efforts some > people will unfortunately die of various diseases > is somewhat different to stating something to the > effect f**** that old person in a care home, I > need to get on with my life and if the price of > that is their life, so be it. I think Trump was > taking a similar line though. Visions of Soylent > Green! > > Just out of interest though, what for you > constitutes an ?acceptable? number of deaths and > which sections of the population? At what point > does it become a problem for you?

first mate Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Wow, the utterly expendable elderly. The disabled > and seriously ill to follow, no doubt. This is the > Cummings approach in lefty clothing. > Yup, we need to be honest and accept that people die. We accept this every year with flu, why not COVID?

I genuinely think there has been a global overreaction. I also think there are plenty of things out there that daily cause risk - for example car crashes, pollution and all manner of other issues that we accept as part of life and move on. I read that something like 40 children have drowned this year, but we're not banning swimming. We have to ask ourselves what happens next - when do we come out of this, how do we cope with potentially 3-4 million unemployed, how do we fund the welfare state, the NHS, the other crown jewels that we know and love? Is this price, of millions of people on the jobs scrapheap worth it right now, when we have less than 400 people on ventilators across the country from COVID related symptoms right now? I keep coming to the point, we have to determine how many deaths is okay and work it from there- we do this for every other illness, why not COVID?

I have no doubt COVID is nasty. But we have to keep a sense of balance and proportion. We accept 10s of thousands will die each year from flu without lockdown. We need to calmly and rationally agree the acceptable level of deaths for covid then get on with our lives. I want normalcy asap precisely because I want an economy that can fund a health service in the future and not sacrifice it now because we areoverreacting. The chance of dying in school from covid is less than being hit by lightning. Yet the schools stay stubbornly shut. We have to stop living in pointless fear As an elderly relative of mine has put it, its time for my generation to accept it may be our time to be the sacrifice and move on so the younger generation can live.

So in other words. There is only one narrative of the science and you cannot doubt or question it. I'm a centre left remainer. I think the response here is utterly OTT and sanity needs to return ASAP.

I don't for one second believe the 470K death figure. The science behind it is deeply questionable, there are real concerns over how the figure was reached and the people behind it have a very long track record of crying wolf over previous incidents. How they got listened to or taken seriously again is beyond me. Meanwhile millions of people face unemployment, possibly on the jobs scrapheap forever, but hey we need to keep that 2m rule in place because great aunty mildred can have a few more weeks of care home existence, even if the price of doing so is utterly screwing our kids and grandkids for decades to come.

I have and I'm a realist and someone who wants this country to have a world class NHS in 10,20,30 years time, which can only be done by sending people back to work, kids back to school and having a very blunt conversation with the nation that points out to people that COVID is horrible, nasty and unpleasant and if you are at risk you may want to stay lying low, but like all other nasty things out there, we accept that it will kill people and that its a personal decision on the risk you want to take. Sorry, we need to stop pretending hiding indoors now and utterly shafting our future to save people today, many of whom would be dead anyway in a few weeks/months time of the many other health issues they have is a sensible thing to do if this means utterly destroying our chance of a credible functioning health system in years to come.

Sorry Caz but I'm afraid we have to be realistic here - those in the at risk bracket need to look out for themselves. If we lockdown tens of millions of people not at risk, then fundamentally we run out of economy to care for those who need it. Ultimately we accept that about 10-30,000 people per year in the UK are expendable for winter flu, so we need to decide quickly the acceptable figure for how many are expendable for Corona virus so that we can restart the economy to ensure we can afford a health service and social services to support the vulnerable. If we keep everyone locked up for no good reason, then we're only making things worse in the medium term.

"Jimlad48, I suggest you do some research before posting your rather offensive opinions on here." I have researched it Sue, and I don't care if you find my suggestions offensive. I find the suggestions that we continue as we are equally offensive.

"In fact we do have commuters - these are the people commuting into ED so they can teach our children, serve in our shops, work in our hospitals and health centres etc. etc. And now it's so much more difficult for them. So they'll be looking for jobs where they can drive to work and park (after all, why would they be using the poor public transport we do have, given the Covid-19 situation?)" Why are these wonderful blessed sainted types not using public transport like mere mortals do? I remember a local nursery near us bleating that their staff drove to work and they'd have to close if a CPZ came in as apparently none of their staff could use public transport. Three years later and the same nursery is busier than ever. Consider me shocked...

I'm afraid I firmly believe we have significantly overreacted, encouraged by media led hysteria. Back when lockdown began I felt and said it was necessary to have a clear view on when death levels were worth accepting - in the same way that we measure death levels as acceptable for other illnesses like flu (which kills thousands upon thousands each year). We should have left lockdown weeks ago when it became clear that COVID was as expected overwhelmingly hitting the very elderly (and in most cases it forms just one of multiple symptoms linked on the death certificate, and very rarely kills in isolation), and those who have underlying conditions, many of which are as much lifestyle choices as they are health. The economic destruction being wrought, the huge damage to childrens education, the sheer damage being done that will take years to resolve for an illness that is essentially natures version of spring cleaning the vulnerable (as it has done since time immemorial) is not worth it. We've overreacted, we've panicked and frankly we should have got on with normal life weeks ago, rather than trying to protect people already at the end of their lives, because bluntly I don't think the damage this is causing to tens of millions of people is a price worth paying for an extra few weeks of 'life' for great aunty mildred in a care home. Sorry to sound harsh, but this is not worth the price.

I live in hope there has been an outbreak of collective sanity after weeks of total overeaction, panic and hysteria. Fingers crossed we can get on living soon, safe in the knowledge that 100% of people born will die, and just get the heck on with our lives.

yorksgirl Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It is an awful moment when you realise that there > is nowhere, absolutely nowhere open. Didn't they > invent some ingenious device for astronauts? Or > would you actually have to wear a space suit for > that to work? Having read a few astronaut books, the 'ingenious device' they use is an adult sized disposable nappy!

So TLDR - you were in the wrong, you were slow to update your details, Southwark wrote to you at the correct address on the system at the time and now its magically someone elses fault. If you'd been faster at updating DVLA none of this would have happened - the fault is yours, not Southwarks. Sorry, you're at fault here, and from their point of view, they've heard it all and the 'oh but I moved house' line is up there with 'dog ate my homework' in list of overused excuses that all too often turn out to be untrue. In your case you were unlucky and the process worked as intended. Harsh, but ultimately this is a mistake you could have avoided by being more efficient in fulfilling your personal responsibilities.