
Penguin68
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Everything posted by Penguin68
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If we take 'mugging' to mean street robbery (as opposed to other types of violent street attack) then the remedies actually available to us as individuals are limited - don't choose routes (or times) which take you through areas vulnerable to attack, don't carry with you relatively valuable items which will encourage attack (and certainly don't display them - such as smart phones and iPods etc.) walk confidently, where you can walk with others. My daughter has been mugged (in the sense that someone stopped her and demanded her phone in a threatening manner) , at least once, luckily her phone was old and damaged and was handed back to her with the injunction to 'get her dad to buy her a better phone' - so another hint there. She also had her iPod earpieces grabbed from her. Where we have been mugged, we should report it (if we do, apparent crime numbers might increase, but this would be a function of better reporting, not increased crime). Too many young people don't bother nowadays - partly I think because to do so would worry their parents and lead to them not being allowed out. [i am not sure, by the way, whether mugging really has increased that much - 8 or so years ago my elder daughter was reporting that her teenage male friends expected to be robbed in the street every 3 months or so - clearly an exaggeration but not much of one.] Finally ? we should not be frightened of screaming and running away (setting off rape alarms if we carry them)? these actions may seem pusillanimous (particularly for men) but this does have a good chance of spooking muggers ? and if we do take this up as victims, then as citizens and householders we should also respond to cries for help. (Yes, I know we would be constantly rushing out to help vixens, but that may be a price worth paying). As parents we are lucky enough to be able to afford mini-cabs for our (grown but young) children when they are coming back late, and certainly we cab it if alone. Not everyone is in this position, of course.
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I suspect that the key issues here are simple economics 101 factors. (1) Different types of house operate with different elasticities of demand - properties targeted at first-time buyers (who have little equity to trade) are price elastic - falling prices bring buyers in, rising prices exclude them, primarily as a function not of desire but availability of funding (affordability). At the other end properties are relatively price inelastic - quite significant changes in price will have limited effect on purchase as people are in a better position to exercise choice less constrained by funds availability (simply because they probably already have sufficient equity to be able to borrow lower fractions of the total house cost). (2) Prices also vary as a function of scarcity - so scarce desirable properties (right size/ location/ build quality etc.) carry a higher price premium than less scarce properties. First-time buyer houses are comparatively scarce (as a ratio against those seeking them) but very price elastic - so in the current borrowing climate to sell them the price must fall - houses at the top end which meet the desirability criteria are also scarce but more price inelastic - so their values are maintaining or even rising (i.e. their selling owners can benefit from scarcity whilst not being penalised by elasticity issues).
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former East Dulwich councillor - how can I help?
Penguin68 replied to James Barber's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
If the utilities dig up roads they have to pay for their restoration - so it is the utility customers who pay for their mistakes, rather than the council tax payer - but these two groups do have substantial overlaps so it does come to the same thing - curiously it is rarely the shareholders who suffer diminution of dividend when their companies cock-up. -
Cost/Benefit Analysis: 30%+ chance of an iphone or Blackberry (?50-?100, exported abroad), chance of some cash (?0-?50 and if your lucky a laptop (?100-?300). I am surprised at these figure - in general fences give you about 10% of the 'value' of the object stolen - hence when safes are 'cash-rated' it is assumed that you can keep in them artifacts worth 10 times the cash-rating. A good second hand blackberry must be worth (be sold for) ?275 tops I would guess (based on a quick google) - so you would get under ?30 for it; you would be lucky to get ?50 for a laptop. Those people who export abroad and make the money aren't the people who do the stealing, just as the wealthy drug barons tend not to be the street pushers.
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Burglary worlingham road 2 3 2011
Penguin68 replied to bloonoo's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
Carbonite as a solution is fine if (1) you only want to back up one computer (its licence is per computer - so 2 computers costs ?82 a year. (2) - you don't have any data on portable hard drives, which it won't back-up - which many people get to extend the capacity of otherwise perfectly OK laptops (3) you don't mind paying for, effectively close to a terrabyte of storage each year which is only yours on lease. For many people this is an entirely good solution, but check your requirements. For the cost (probably) of 2 years storage you could buy 2 terrabyte drives and mirror them (in case one dies) - put them in an external drive case (additional cost) and link that by wireless or ethernet to your computer - then lock your home server away somewhere where the little scrotes won't think to look. Standard back-up programms (additional cost, possibly) will allow you to preserve your data. HOWEVER - this won't protect against fire in the home - for that external (cloud) storage is required. Mind you - a bad bout of solar flare and you probably lose the cloud - possibly all your data with it (whereas at home you can switch off your computer and disconnect from power etc. sources and it should survive a solar flare). My key data is backed up on 3 separate systems (against data loss and system failure) and (work data) additionally in 2 locations - but I don't use any cloud storage. And as soon as I post this I expect something dreadful will happen which makes all my precautions useless. -
Burglary worlingham road 2 3 2011
Penguin68 replied to bloonoo's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
If your laptop is used as a desktop (i.e. mainly in the same place) it is worthwhile getting one of those steel cables that you can tether laptops with - to steal them you need to have bolt-cutters (not all casual thieves do) or so damage the computer that it has no re-sale value. Sending key papers/ pictures to yourself at something like gmail - which offer loads of storage - is also a good way of storing really important documents. If you have portable storage and good housekeeping you can back up pictures etc, to it on a regular basis, but mainly keep it locked away. That way you only lose the most recent stuff. Absolutely none of which is of any use to you in your current predicament of loss. Funnily enough no one steals bound photo albums, or old essays on paper. Technological progress has its downsides. -
At this time of year every large wasp you see which you kill (indeed killing any wasp) is killing a queen and subsequent nest, as only queens, in general, over-winter. However worker honey bees do over-winter (some) which is why bees make honey (for winter sustenance). Warm days will also bring out bumble bees from hibernation - but sudden cold-snaps or rain can leave them very vulnerable - ideally if you find a stranded bumble bee move them into the sun so that they can warm up - they can then more easily fly-away. On a window ledge is ideal, as this discourages many birds from swooping down for a snack. Otherwise move them into shelter from the rain.
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Although Halal and Kosher meat are slaughtered in the same way, each death requires different religious rituals (and kosher butchers need to be licenced I think by the Beth Din(?) the Jewish religious court. So a strictly observent Jew would not accept Halal meat, I believe, as a substitute for kosher - it meets only some of the religious requirements (right death, wrong words).
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East Dulwich on Cowboy Builders this Wed (Feb16)
Penguin68 replied to Lollipop's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
In my experience if a builder says that he needs money up front to buy stuff then he is trading on dangerously thin ice, a reputable and solvent builder should be able to fund most builds as far as materials are concerned, particularly as he should be buying on credit and paying later - if he is having to pay up front for stuff himself it's normally because he has a poor credit rating, which should be warning enough. [That may not be true of a local handyman, operating as a one-man band, but then materals costs are normally small for the sort of job he does]. An agreed quotation, with an agreed payment schedule is normal practice - perhaps 10% up front but then in stages following completion of building stages - with a 5% retention at the end for snagging and problems. But Binda appears to have been very plausible, which is why people were prepared to pay him for far more than he had done - if someone appears to be nice, nice people think they are nice. -
Yet Another Crash on Barry Road - Underhill Road Junction
Penguin68 replied to trentk69's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
I would guess that by making Underhill more difficult to get in to and exit (despite the fact that its a significant route, including for buses) this will help speed the traffic on Barry (always a good thing, far too few of our accidents are fatal, if you ask me) whilst making 'clearing' cars into and out of Underhill longer, more difficult, thus increasing the chances of impact. Luckily the only people able to afford to drive shortly will be Tories, so this enforced cull should ensure a LibLab dominance in the local elections. Or am I reading the plan wrongly? The major basis for much of the complaint in this thread has been the speed of cars along Barry and the problems of visibility and access into and out of Underhill. I cannot see how this does anything but exacerbate this situation. -
former East Dulwich councillor - how can I help?
Penguin68 replied to James Barber's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
James At the moment the junction is even more hazardous as large lorries supplying the building site (the former wood yard) regularly park at the juntion itself, occupying the whole of the carriageway that enters travelling north into Barry road, forcing drivers leaving Underhill to pull into the opposite lane - thus blocking people trying to get into Underhill from Barry or cross over from the Whately Rd side of Underhill. A couple of days ago a large car was left stuck across Barry waiting for traffic to ease so that he could enter Underhill (he had committed before the carriageway which was his right of way was blocked by traffic pulling out to pass the lorry). Because the Underhill entrance has been considerably reduced as a traffic calming measure the road is even more congested than if Underhill had retained the width of entry into Barry Road that it initially had, when traffic might have passed the parked vehicles mor easily. Sometimes driver's mates do try to control the traffic, but not always. And the whole of the Underhill side along the building site is often parked up with trade vehicles, as well as the juntion entry being parked in. -
Water Pressure Problems - Nutbrook St/Adys Road
Penguin68 replied to markyb3's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
I assume you hot water boiler is mains fed? If you have had supply disruption recently it is possible that your local (on your own property) pressure is down, either because of dirt/ grit in your supply pipe, or possibly an airlock within your own internal system. Does water coming from the mains (not from your cold water tank if you have one) appear to be flowing slowly, or 'stuttering'? An air lock can be cleared (sometimes) by turning a mains-fed cold-water tap on and blocking it for a time with your hand, then releasing it suddenly. That may clear an air block, it can also shift grit. However, if the grit has got into you hot water boiler system then you may need a plumber (if grit is an issue at all). The fact that your neighbour also has problems may reflect a local supply interruption which effected you both, particularly if you share any pipework coming from the main. Is you neighbour in another house, or in a flat in the same property? -
Our house was broken into last night... (February 9th)
Penguin68 replied to thfc2001's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
Thieves also come back as they expect you to have replaced electrical goods etc. stolen, with new items via insurance - it then makes it worth their while to break in again, even where the risk is increased, as they can then steal brand new kit. -
Lordship Lane street party for Royal Wedding?
Penguin68 replied to silverfox's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
The ?0.62p is the total cost of the monarchy to us each, annually. I don't believe that the wedding is a state occasion, so that will be being paid out of existing money, probably Duchy Of Cornwall income. Your tax also go towards the pay of the prime-minister, do you want a say on what he calls his children or who they marry? -
Man stabbed to death near East Dulwich station
Penguin68 replied to louisiana's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
Narnia wrote :- Quote: penguin68:Young men and violence are easy bedfollows On what grounds can you possibly justify this statement? If you can't then I won't take anything you write seriously. I think you will find that almost all reported acts of mindless (gang) violence in our streets are associated with young men (there are some girl gangs, but relatively few). I am not saying that all young men are violent, but that when men are young, testosterone fuelled (as young men are) and wanting to make their mark in a sociey, violence is a typical response. Add alcohol as a disinhibiter (and very many do) and you have a recipe for violence. There are some 'young middle aged' violent men (some of the football gangs of the 70s and 80s had 25-35 year old thugs in them) but, in the main, violence is a young man's game. You are violent often when you have nothing much to lose (no family yet to support, often no job worth it's name to risk losing) when you are physically at a peak and when you have over-much energy (it's amazing how a full-time demanding job and full-time demanding children can wear you out). I could refer you, but I won't, to numerous articles by social anthropologists on the links to gang or group violence and late adolesence, and how this normally dissipates over time. And the numerous studies showing how male children have a tendancy to play-act violent confrontations (Cops & Robbers, Cowboys and Indians in my day). Many young (male) animals also 'play-fight' and then, as young adults, really fight over mates etc. The young have two things going for them, physcial vigour and a sense of personal immortality. Without those we wouldn't have the necessary fuel to sustain the wars that older men (politicians) get others to undertake for them. -
Man stabbed to death near East Dulwich station
Penguin68 replied to louisiana's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
My point was simply that we made assumptions about who were culprits, and their motivation and background, regarding the Islamic terrorists, that turned out to be wrong. We could well be doing the same here. I am not suggesting that the two types of crime were similar in nature or motivation, my comment was about us, not about the criminals. -
Man stabbed to death near East Dulwich station
Penguin68 replied to louisiana's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
Er, irony alert. And I stick by my assertion that speculation in advance of knowledge in this area is silly. Remember how surprised we all were when the Islamic bombers in Glasgow airport turned out to be doctors from stable middle class British born backgrounds, as were the London bombers (British born at least). The chances are that the perpetrators did come from a poor disadvantaged background, they may even have come from fully dysfunctional families, but we simply don't know. And one thing we do know is that people from the same ethnic background (and frequently from the same economic background) form fully rounded and valued members of society. -
Doesn't matter what the m3 are as anything along the outrigger is unlawful according to Southwark I don't think this is correct. I think that the problem was that, in order to get a working room height, it would have been necessary to raise the height of your outrigger roof line (in an earlier post I noted that permitted development assumed no change to the roof line). So the problem was not that it was an outrigger, but that it was a relatively low outrigger with insufficient clearance to offer workable room heights. The outrigger roof is clearly separate from the main roof and has its own roof line height. Taller outriggers would have been OK for development, as there would have been no need to raise their height further. I think that, because of its height, anything along your outrigger would have been unlawful. I know this as I have a Certificate of Lawful Development from Southwark on an outrigger extension. But I did have a particularly tall roof line on the outrigger, according to my architect and builder.
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Man stabbed to death near East Dulwich station
Penguin68 replied to louisiana's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
The issue here may not be ethnicity but background - for all we know the perpetrators of these crimes may well come from well ordered and managed homes, fully stocked with parents. Until we know the backgrounds of those eventually convicted speculation as to cause is irrelevant. Young men and violence are easy bedfollows - if that wasn't so our armed forces would find recruitment a real problem - they mange to divert an underlying and common urge into something which we find socially useful (as long as the soldiers are somewhere far away, and not knocking around a UK garrison town letting off steam). We have young men who have found a channel for their natural tendencies (possibly) which we find alarming and dreadful - but let's hold back from blaming society and whatever before we know what to blame ourselves for. Oh yes, if society is to blame then, unless we are contactless hermits (and obviously no one on this forum is that), we are that society which needs to shoulder the blame. We (all) create the contexts collectively in which we all live. -
Man stabbed to death near East Dulwich station
Penguin68 replied to louisiana's topic in General ED Issues / Gossip
As there is no public information about any of those accused of these two crimes (and indeed I am not sure if anyone yet has even been charged, let alone convicted of course, all we have are arrests and police bail at the moment, not the same thing) assertions about the background and circumstances of those who actually are responsible seems wholly misplaced. Until I have knowledge I plan to blame nobody, let alone look for solutions to problems which have not yet been defined. -
James I knew this - but that's about devolved/ delegated powers - applications under permitted development would never go to the planning committee (as there is no mechanism for objection, inter alia). And I think that even where planning applications aren't debated they do follow the planning committee timetable (or at least, that's true for another authority which I have had dealings with). The point I was making is that where applications for a Lawful Development Certificate are made the council officers expect to see properly drawn-up plans etc. - so that there 'permitted development' isn't a 'don't care' route to an extension build; the council officers expect to see a professional approach taken. It is possible to 'take a risk' by not involving council officers, but it is a real risk, particularly where a trouble free future sale is contemplated, and Lawful Development Certificate or no, building regs still have to followed, and building inspectors satisfied. And if you don't do that, you may well have to re-instate the build back to where you started.
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As opposed to the traditional method - employing an Architect and submitting planning App/tender for contractors etc Permitted development is about the amount of space that is being gained - under 50 cubic metres it doesn't need to go before the planning committee (politicians) for a decision, it is based on meeting standard requirements and is agreed by bureaucrats if it does. I went through this route with fully drawn up architect's plans, input from structural engineers etc. - all the work done by my builder that you would need for a planning application - but without the wait for it to go before a planning meeting and without the requirement for neighbours etc. to object (but I did need formal agreement from the neighbour I share a party-wall with before work could commence). If you want to get a Lawful Development Certificate you need to do this (and the planning authority did get me to change the original design as it didn't meet their requirements). If you don't have the certificate you will find selling down the line a problem. So although you can build under 'permitted development' without planning authority (but of course you must still meet building regs) you would be pretty stupid to, if you ever plan to sell your house without a lot of difficulty, as you would need to prove, retrospectively, that it was a lawful permitted development. Having that done up-front is the realistic and sensible route, and for that you need the proper paraphanalia of plans and surveys.
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There is a photo-shop in the middle of Lordship Lane (South of the post office, on that side) which used to take passport pictures for you (immediate print) - you got a chance of approving them first, as they were digital snaps. They knew the strange rules about how you had to stand, not smile etc. which are now part of the requirements. I think it's still there.
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