The Pound

[Annasfield]

Mick Mac Wrote:

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> Annasfield Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Typical - I'm going to France next week. Reckon

> > it's worth getting my Euros ASAP?

>

>

> Nice one Anna. :)

Que?

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Also got this re the UK election

Looking at the prices on Betfair for the coming UK General Election there are a few interesting insights that can be drawn:

1) May 6th is nailed on as the date: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)

Before May 6th => ?715

on May 6th => ?24

After May 6th => ?2,125

2) More interestingly, a Majority Tory Government is 3 times more likely than a Hung Parliament, with a Labour Majority being faded aggressively: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)

Conservative Majority => ?65

No Majority => ?198

Labour Majority => ?1,600

3) Digging further into that you can see the likelihood given to the different following outcomes: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)

Cameron/Majority => ?77

Cameron/Minority => ?350

Brown/Minority => ?430

Brown/Majority => ?1,825

[????]

Did you know that Betfair predicted the UK and US elections more accurately than the polls? - 'wisdom of crowds' innit

[????]

However, I'm slightly tempted to have a piece on Brown majority partly 'cos that looks an ok price and partly to Hedge my disappointment if it happens ;-)

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Emotional hedge they call that.

[david_carnell]

Labour-LibDem coalition/Miliband as PM

Get me the odds, my good man.

[????]

You'll probably have to get that priced up

Well you can get 30 for any other government/leader

[Narnia]

Marmora Man Wrote:

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> The fall is mostly in response to uncertainty

> about forthcoming election - encourage everyone to

> vote, in my opinion for Conservatives but at least

> for anything but a hung parliament.

Why anything but a hung parliament? I was kinda hoping for one to see party leaders grovelling for support. I don't see either main party as inspiring. Surely a coalition could keep whoever the main party is, honest, to a certain extent.

[Santerme]

Glad I bought mine in 2007 at 2 to 1