New Prime Minister and outlook - factual update

[red devil]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> But unfortunately we've already voted for 'leave'.

> Labour were overwhelmingly in favour of "remain"

> (despite Corbyn), so what's the point?

Whose to say the Tory party would be pro-Brexit in their next manifesto?

After all, the Ref was only advisory, not legally binding. That would be for them to resolve...

[Jeremy]

red devil Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Whose to say the Tory party would be pro-Brexit

Every Tory MP I've heard seems to be saying that the referendum result must be respected.

[JohnL]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Well it looks like being the SNP or UKIP next

> time...but not Plaid Cymru John :)

Poor Plaid but Leanne still made a speech as if someone was listening :)

"It is a matter of principle that the most powerful political position in the UK should be elected to his or her role as a result of a fairly contested election. That is why I support an immediate UK-wide election to allow people to have their say as to who they believe is best placed to lead the UK through these testing, challenging times.

With Labour and the Tories engulfed by chaos and division, Plaid Cymru is putting forward the vision and values needed to take our country forward. Plaid Cymru politicians would never abdicate their responsibilities to people in Wales in the same way as Brexit's so-called leaders have."

? PLAID CYMRU LEADER LEANNE WOOD AM

[red devil]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Every Tory MP I've heard seems to be saying that

> the referendum result must be respected.

The cynic in me says that's more to do with retaining power than actual principles.

After all, MPs of all parties will readily go against the majority views of their constituents when it suits.

Anyways, there won't be a snap election, May will eventually press the button, and we'll all have to suck it and see...

[????]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > + people who think a non-Brexit manifesto would

> > get anywhere near power are delusional

>

> I had a Lib Dem leaflet arrive over the week-end I

> think. If there was an election this would be part

> of their manifesto.

> I would vote for them on that alone. Why is it

> delusional to think they wouldn't have a chance?

52% voted Leave - I'm willing to think a reasonable number regret it but suspect it's not material.

A reasonable amount (and i expect much more than regretters) of the 48% have accepted it (including me as a sample of 1)

The Conservatives won't have this in their manifesto and Labour won't

The SDP or even the 'Vote Referendum 2 party" wouldn't get a majority even with PR, they've no chance in FPTP

It's pie in the sky

[Loz]

I dunno, quids - you only need about 35% to govern and, from what I saw on the TV, quite a few of the Leavers were usually non-voters.

[Jenny1]

Whether Lib Dems/Likely New 'Common Ground' Party would have a chance in a General Election largely depends on how Remain/'Anyone But the Tory' voters were distributed via consituency. I think it might work for them. You can, of course, win an election while attracting a smaller per centage of the turnout than your rivals.

[LD929]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > + people who think a non-Brexit manifesto would

> > get anywhere near power are delusional

>

> I had a Lib Dem leaflet arrive over the week-end I

> think. If there was an election this would be part

> of their manifesto.

> I would vote for them on that alone. Why is it

> delusional to think they wouldn't have a chance?

I would too. And, I think a lot of people agree with you Alan http://www.libdemvoice.org/good-news-a-big-liberal-democrat-byelection-gain-from-the-tories-in-surrey-51158.html

@???? -- I agree Labour won't have it in their manifesto, but why shouldn't they? a significant majority of Labour voters voted to stay in the EU and still want to. The Tories still have no clue what they are going to do with Brexit even after cleaning house. Just wait for the recession to hit and then you might hear a lot more about "Bregret". And, it you don't think a recession is coming, just wait...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be5b7824-48eb-11e6-b387-64ab0a67014c.html#axzz4EIM163dJ

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/12/brexit-could-take-up-to-six-years-to-complete-says-philip-hammond

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/27d7b066-447c-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html#axzz4EIM163dJ

I think the political mood, particularly over Brexit, will change a lot in the next few months. By the end of the summer, we'll begin to see how much Brexit takes a toll on the economy.

[Jenny1]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ...quite a few of the

> Leavers were usually non-voters.

This is a good point Loz. I remember hearing a man in his 50s/60s interviewed for a radio piece back near the beginning of the referendum campaign. He'd never voted in his life, but was going to vote 'Leave'. I felt at once depressed and very angry. My anger came from the fact that someone who had chosen to absent himself from public engagement for a lifetime should stir himself from his sofa only for this ill-conceived referendum. And depressed because I felt that it was precisely because of people like him that the 'Remain' cause would lose. But once it comes to a General Election these 'voters' will disappear again.

[uncleglen]

Maybe he didn't vote because he knew that when it boils down to the nitty gritty the EU would trump our constitution anyway and poke it's snivelling nose into everything we do... so what is the point.....

[????]

We - most of us anyway - can make a philosophical case of why it could and even should happen. But it won't - you need to move on Jenny/Loz.

[JoeLeg]

uncleglen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Maybe he didn't vote because he knew that when it

> boils down to the nitty gritty the EU would trump

> our constitution anyway and poke it's snivelling

> nose into everything we do... so what is the

> point.....

So I asked you before if you've ever voted BNP, and if not why not? You didn't answer, so I'll ask this; did you vote at all?

[Loz]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We - most of us anyway - can make a philosophical

> case of why it could and even should happen. But

> it won't - you need to move on Jenny/Loz.

Not until Article 50 is signed, sealed and delivered and the European fat lady has sung.

[JohnL]

Right - The civil servants need to find a building to put the Brexit department

lets say Milton Keynes for example - then everybody else forgets it even exists

and it reports back in say 7 years (for thoroughness as the Chilcot Report).

[Alan Medic]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ???? Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > We - most of us anyway - can make a

> philosophical

> > case of why it could and even should happen.

> But

> > it won't - you need to move on Jenny/Loz.

>

> Not until Article 50 is signed, sealed and

> delivered and the European fat lady has sung.

Lets see how long they can string this out. Quite a while is my bet.

[????]

Prepare to be surprised

[Otta]

Yeah, I think May's new government will crack on with Brexit ASAP to be honest. If nothing else it sheilds her from having to call a General Election.

[Jenny1]

uncleglen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Maybe he didn't vote because he knew that when it

> boils down to the nitty gritty the EU would trump

> our constitution anyway and poke it's snivelling

> nose into everything we do... so what is the

> point.....

Yes. I suspect you're right. He was almost certainly the kind of person who had questionable, or non-existent, sources of real information - and paid far too much attention to the tabloid press.

[Jenny1]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We - most of us anyway - can make a philosophical

> case of why it could and even should happen. But

> it won't - you need to move on Jenny/Loz.

Call me old-fashioned. But I always think it best to try and influence events for the better, and to support others with the same goals. I believe one of our problems in this country is a readiness to throw up our hands in resignation. You might succeed, and you might not, but how else is anything ever going to get done?

[????]

Influence events for the better is subjective in this case though yes?

[Jenny1]

I think you'll find that's always the case ????.

[????]

yes. But subjectively I agree with you.

Objectively it is hard to make a case that it will happen. The govt are committed to Brexit; We are unlikely to get a GE; the opposition are in total shambles but the likelihood is that who ever wins won't oppose Brexit either (more so if it's Corbyn, the likely winner). But if we do get a GE, then the majority just voted out and many who voted remain think it's done now and many would likely vote for their traditional choices in a FPTP system rather than a cancel Brexit party- the latter two bits are my opinion admittedly.

I've just found it a lot easier to 'move on' by accepting this than clutching at tenuous straws.

[uncleglen]

I did vote UKIP once JoeLeg which I suspect in your book is equivalent to voting for the BNP...

[Seabag]

I was heart broken and cried at the Brexit vote. But like ?????'s I've accepted it's happening. I've had to adjust my mindset and move on, else I'll f*ck my business up thinking about it all the time

[Jenny1]

Well of course, everyone is entitled to respond in the way that best suits them. Naturally you must 'move on' if that's what you want to do!

But I think the reverberations of this referendum result will be deep and far-reaching.

It's possible that our current crop of MPs (no matter what party they come from) are sufficiently lacking in initiative to duck making any real changes. But I suspect there are some key figures in the Labour Party, the SNP, the Lib Dems and even the Tories, who are trying to get to grips with the new landscape. And clearly there are other groups in society - like those who went on the London march, and the 1000 barristers calling for a Commons vote pre Article 50 - who feel very strongly about this indeed. These people will be braver, and have a greater chance of success, if we - as the public - back them.

I'm still very angry. Primarily with Cameron. He was careless over this. Criminally so, in my view. Did he not see why it is that the US demands a two thirds majority for any vote that will make changes to the constitution? Did he not remember that the referendum of 1975 was only called to ratify a vote already taken by MPs in parliament? But I don't think Cameron really cared that much about anything when it came to it.