48% in East Dulwich (EU-referendum group)

[pebs]

Thanks Frank - would be good to publicise rally details. Not much on the web that I can see, albeit quickly.

[Frank]

Hi Pebs, yes I will do so :) I will post two links here later tonight. The link to our Facebook group is

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1092904207464344/

which is a closed group but I monitor every day whether new members request to sign up; This group also has a public page, here

https://www.facebook.com/48CamberwellPeckhamEastDulwich/

which people can read and interact with group members without joining the group :)

Cheers,

Frank

[Frank]

Here is a link to the Facebook event for the rally of February 4th

https://www.facebook.com/events/1780707565525298/

[Frank]

And this is the event for the 25th of March

https://www.facebook.com/events/1812530828971846/

[JohnL]

Frank Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi TheCat,

> Of course life inside the EU also comes with a

> whole set of challenges. But I don't know any

> Remainer who is a afraid of a challenge. But

> Russian Roulette is not a challenge ... it is

> plain stupid. Theresa May's speech makes very

> clear where her priorities are ... and close

> international collaboration with your neighbours

> is not among them. Rather she spoke of making

> Britain Great again ... That is not a challenge,

> that is merely short-sighted.

Well, Theresa May is off to speak to the citizens of nowhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Economic_Forum

Or maybe only poor people cannot be citizens of the world.

[Frank]

Looking for hosts:

There will be a rally against Brexit in London on 25/3/2017 at 11h am at Westminster. Some members of the nation-wide 48% movement seek to travel from far away places to come to London but worry about the cost of accomodation on top of the rail/plane fares. As a local 48% group we are trying to see whether there are local people in our area who would be willing to host a participant to the rally on Fri/Sat 24/25 March and/or Sat/Sun 25/26 March?

Local London 48% groups are making an inventory and if we can generate a reasonable number of potential places then we will create a separate page where those who want to host and those who seek a host can find eachother.

If you are interested in hosting, please leave a response or send em a message (no need to join our group for this, but welcome of course), and indicate a preference for dates, number of guests. Note that this absolutely does NOT commit you to anything and at every point in the process it will be YOU who decides what they offer and to whom!

[pebs]

Thanks. A50 might have been triggered by then!

[Frank]

Hi Pebs,

Sure, there will not be much that can stop that at such short notice. But this is a long game ... and the Art.50 trigger is only the beginning and not the end. It will take time for people to come to terms with the full impact of what a Brexit will be, it will also take time for people to accept that voting differently at the next election might not make any difference and that we need to solve this problem in a different way.

Maybe a year, maybe two? Who knows maybe even half a decade. But possibly also less than that. Every year that we can take off the most pessimist estimate is a year won for our youths, our kids, and those yet unborn.

[Administrator]

Time to move this to the Lounge

[Frank]

-- moved topic --

[Frank]

Hi Administrator

I am fine with whatever works best for you :)

Let me thank you for the work you do on this forum with your fellow admins! Great job!

Frank

[jaywalker]

There are some credible scenarios in which we will not Brexit.

A great deal will depend on the willingness of the Lib Dems to make a manifesto pledge that they will vote against it. I hope and believe they will: May (delayed by the Supreme Court) will be unable to call her vote on the final settlement before the next General Election. She will not be in power after that: the new coalition government will consist of moderate labour, centre-right Tories and Lib Dems. Nick Clegg has the experience to become PM in national unity. The EU will be understanding (thank goodness for the European Courts - they will rule that the calling of Article 50 by the previous government is revocable).

[Frank]

Hi Jaywalker,

I agree that there are realistic scenarios in which an Art.50 trigger can be reversed. I think that a strong showing of movements like the 48% in the politics of the next 2 years can have a significant impact on the willingness of the EU27 and the European parliament to pave the way for a return of the UK into full EU membership. I don't believe it is merely a legal matter that the European Courts will take care of.

The European Courts might open the door in principle, but the re-entry fee will be determined politically not legally.

Frank

[Frank]

A worthwhile listen ...

[Earl Aelfheah]

I think it's possible (albiet rather unlikely) that there could be a change of mood in the country on Brexit. After all, it was a very narrow victory for Leave, so it wouldn't take a huge shift in sentiment for the 'brexiters' to find themselves in the minority. In time, as inflation increases and people find the cost of living going up faster than earnings, it's easy to see a scenario where recriminations lead to calls for a rethink.

Like I say, i think it's probably unlikely, but not impossible. If there is one thing that 2016 taught us, it's that the seemingly far fetched can happen.

[TheCat]

Frank Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi TheCat,

> Of course life inside the EU also comes with a

> whole set of challenges. But I don't know any

> Remainer who is a afraid of a challenge. But

> Russian Roulette is not a challenge ... it is

> plain stupid. Theresa May's speech makes very

> clear where her priorities are ... and close

> international collaboration with your neighbours

> is not among them. Rather she spoke of making

> Britain Great again ... That is not a challenge,

> that is merely short-sighted.

I respectfully disagree with the point about international collaboration. Many Remainers seem to think that leaving the EU means we're shutting ourself off from the world...well The United Kingdom is a member of the G7, G20, NATO, all the UN bodies (not to mention having a permanent seat at the celebrated 'top table'), the Council of Europe, the OSCE, and the OECD, without starting on the Asian Development Bank (of which we're a nonregional member), the AfDB (nonregional member), the Arctic Council (observer), the Australia Group, the BIS, C, CBSS (observer), CD, CDB, CE, CERN, EAPC, EBRD, ECB, EIB, EITI (implementing country), ESA, FAO, FATF, the IADB, IAEA, the IBRD and the ICAO, the ICC (national committees), the ICCt, ICRM, IDA, IEA, IFAD, IFC, and the IFRCS, the IGAD (partners), the IHO, ILO, IMF, IMO, IMSO, Interpol, IOC, IOM, IPU, ISO, ITSO, ITU, ITUC (NGOs), MIGA, MINUSMA, MONUSCO, NEA, NSG, OAS (observer), OPCW, Pacific Alliance (observer), Paris Club, PCA, PIF (partner), SELEC (observer), SICA (observer), the WIPO, WMO, WTO, and the Zanger Committee....doesnt sound like a lack of international collaboration to me.....

Why does everything hinge on our membership of a limping political project on the western end of the Eurasian landmass?

[Jenny1]

I don't think simply being a member of a lot of international institutions constitutes effective and economically beneficial global engagement TheCat. The point about the UK's EU membership (as far as global investors are concerned)is that it gives the UK unfettered access to a market which they want to reach as well. Investing in the UK has - until now - given them a gateway to that market. As Karan Bilimoria (founder of Cobra Beer) pointed out when he accompanied TM on that recent gig to India. He'd been part of similar delegations in the past when Indian investors had been all over them...not any more. Germany and Japan are now the favoured investment options.

[TheCat]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I don't think simply being a member of a lot of

> international institutions constitutes effective

> and economically beneficial global engagement

> TheCat. The point about the UK's EU membership (as

> far as global investors are concerned)is that it

> gives the UK unfettered access to a market which

> they want to reach as well. Investing in the UK

> has - until now - given them a gateway to that

> market. As Karan Bilimoria (founder of Cobra Beer)

> pointed out when he accompanied TM on that recent

> gig to India. He'd been part of similar

> delegations in the past when Indian investors had

> been all over them...not any more. Germany and

> Japan are now the favoured investment options.

the point made was about international collaboration. Not global investment.

[Jenny1]

But shouldn't the two things go hand in hand?

[Otta]

I applaud what you're trying to do, but 50k members on FB is not a large number I'm afraid.

Brexit is happening, and it's happening at a time when we don't have a single senior politician on either side that I'm confident could negotiate with a street trader, let alone the EU.

[Jenny1]

Thanks for posting the link to A C Grayling's talk in Bristol Frank. He's a good speaker isn't he? And reiterating points I've seen Mary Beard make elsewhere.

Have sent you a PM.

[apbremer]

Don't believe all this. "LEAVE" is a simple word of only one syllable which surely even the dimmest amongst us must comprehend. Which part of it do you not understand?

[rendelharris]

apbremer Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Don't believe all this. "LEAVE" is a simple word

> of only one syllable which surely even the dimmest

> amongst us must comprehend. Which part of it do

> you not understand?

"DEMOCRATIC RIGHT TO PROTEST" is eight syllables but it's still quite simple to understand.

[apbremer]

It just seems extraordinary to me, a mere ignorant uneducated Leaver, that you are all exercising your democratic rights to protest to try to overturn a democratic decision by the British electorate to rid ourselves of a hugely undemocratic Brussels Juggernaut. Ironic,eh?

[JohnL]

apbremer Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It just seems extraordinary to me, a mere ignorant

> uneducated Leaver, that you are all exercising

> your democratic rights to protest to try to

> overturn a democratic decision by the British

> electorate to rid ourselves of a hugely

> undemocratic Brussels Juggernaut. Ironic,eh?

As Trump would say, a movement takes years to accomplish.

Why should remain give up forever and if they aren't, why

should they give up now.