8 June

[robbin]

Jaywalker said:

"Emma Thornberry was very effective on Newsnight last night. She is certainly in command of her brief and has a good rapport with the audience. Not seen her before."

Did you miss snobby Lady Thornberry of Islington getting sacked from the shadow cabinet during the last election for sneering in a "drippingly patronising" manner (to quote Nick CLegg) on Twitter at the White Van Man and his English flag?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11250430/Emily-Thornberrys-white-van-Tweet-was-drippingly-patronising-Nick-Clegg-says.html

Yeah, she's great - just the sort of person who I want in power (not).

[JohnL]

http://www.newageman.co.uk/articles/one-england-flag-just-not-enough-claims-white-van-man

[Green Goose]

Thought the FT summed it up quite well today....

Mr Corbyn is a fringe figure who has spent his entire political career in opposition ? to his own Labour leadership.

Despite his recent media makeover, he is a pacifist relic of the 1970s, in hock to the trade unions, with no grip on economic issues. It is no accident that the arrival of Mr Corbyn and his hard-left supporters in mainstream politics has coincided with a revival of anti-Semitism and misogyny.

[JohnL]

Green Goose Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Thought the FT summed it up quite well today....

>

> Mr Corbyn is a fringe figure who has spent his

> entire political career in opposition ? to his own

> Labour leadership.

>

> Despite his recent media makeover, he is a

> pacifist relic of the 1970s, in hock to the trade

> unions, with no grip on economic issues. It is no

> accident that the arrival of Mr Corbyn and his

> hard-left supporters in mainstream politics has

> coincided with a revival of anti-Semitism and

> misogyny.

Yet he might be reeling Theresa May in.

She is a bad candidate for PM (and I doubt see'll last long anyway).

[Jenny1]

Yes. I wonder how badly the Tories would have to do in the election to feel they wanted to ditch TM? They're usually quite efficient at getting rid of unwanted leaders. If she slightly improves her majority I suppose that might be enough to keep her in post. She seems to isolate herself - even within her own party. Was Edward Heath a bit like that? I seem to remember he was.

[Jules-and-Boo]

do you really think she has a future?

[Jenny1]

No way of knowing. Up to senior Tories after the election to judge if the result was good enough. Personally I think she's ineffectual - can't even say 'Brexit negotiations' without a quaver in her voice. As Suzanne Moore wrote on Twitter - it's a mystery as to why TM wants to be PM - most of the time she looks like she's going to be sick.

[red devil]

I thought this was quite a good summary of May's position, if she doesn't get a good majority she'll do well to hold on to power...http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-slips-jeremy-corbyn-climbs-election-polls-brexit-all-over-for-prime-minister-a7767626.html

[Jules-and-Boo]

To be fair - and demonstrate humanity - she is in an unenviable position. She has momentous political changes to control and the consequences are enormous. It literally is history in the making and she's getting jeered at left right and centre.

Who would really want to be in her place?

[red devil]

I have very little sympathy for her, it was a power grab by her, a job her husband let slip she coveted for a long time, so much so to go against her beliefs about Brexit...

[rendelharris]

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> To be fair - and demonstrate humanity - she is in

> an unenviable position. She has momentous

> political changes to control and the consequences

> are enormous. It literally is history in the

> making and she's getting jeered at left right and

> centre.

>

> Who would really want to be in her place?

For ?150K a year and a free flat in the centre of town? I'd give it a go.

Seriously, as RD notes, it's difficult to feel sympathy for someone who chose to be in this position and has given up on her principles in order to grab it. Although I'm by no means a monarchist I do see the "they didn't choose it" argument - politicians, no. Remember we didn't have to have an election now, she chose to call it in the belief that she could consolidate her power for at least the next lustrum and if it's biting back at her, that's tough. Your humanity does you credit but it's a bit misplaced in this instance, I feel.

[Jules-and-Boo]

fair enough. humanity withdrawn.

[JohnL]

rendelharris Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > To be fair - and demonstrate humanity - she is

> in

> > an unenviable position. She has momentous

> > political changes to control and the

> consequences

> > are enormous. It literally is history in the

> > making and she's getting jeered at left right

> and

> > centre.

> >

> > Who would really want to be in her place?

>

> For ?150K a year and a free flat in the centre of

> town? I'd give it a go.

>

> Seriously, as RD notes, it's difficult to feel

> sympathy for someone who chose to be in this

> position and has given up on her principles in

> order to grab it. Although I'm by no means a

> monarchist I do see the "they didn't choose it"

> argument - politicians, no. Remember we didn't

> have to have an election now, she chose to call it

> in the belief that she could consolidate her power

> for at least the next lustrum and if it's biting

> back at her, that's tough. Your humanity does you

> credit but it's a bit misplaced in this instance,

> I feel.

And as has been pointed out, SHE called an election 11

days before talks with the EU27 were about to start.

and then whinged about it :)

[Jenny1]

Thanks for the article link red devil. But I don't altogether agree with the perspective it offers. I'm not fully convinced that an increased Tory majority will make any difference at all to Brexit. Even if you accept the adversarial model of negotiations with the EU that many on the Tory right and UKIP like to push (which I don't), I can't see an increased majority 'strengthening' TM's hand in such a scenario. Why would it make any difference at all to the perspective and approach of our current 27 European partners?

On the other hand I agree that a 'bad' result for TM - which could be anything from a slightly increased majority to a hung parliament - will certainly re-ignite old divisions in the Tory party between Eurosceptics and Europhiles. And actually that would be a good thing. It would lead to some proper debate as to what it is we actually want to get out of these negotiations, and the most sensible way of conducting them in order to achieve those goals.

[????]

A decent Labour leader would wipe the floor with May and a decent Conservative leader would wipe the floor with Corbyn......that's where we are folks.

[rendelharris]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> A decent Labour leader would wipe the floor with

> May and a decent Conservative leader would wipe

> the floor with Corbyn......that's where we are

> folks.

I think that's as good a summary as one could find - it's like watching two one-legged men in an arse-kicking contest.

[red devil]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Thanks for the article link red devil. But I don't

> altogether agree with the perspective it offers.

> I'm not fully convinced that an increased Tory

> majority will make any difference at all to

> Brexit.

I don't either, I posted at the time the election was called that an increased majority for the Tories won't make a jot of difference to the EU, they will be negotiating on behalf of themselves regardless. My gut feeling was, and still is, that the election was called to enable the Tories to extend their term in office by an extra 2 years post-Brexit, and give themselves more breathing space should there be a serious economic downturn.

The reason I posted that link was in relation to the question you had posed earlier...

I wonder how badly the Tories would have to do in the election to feel they wanted to ditch TM?

As that article says, she can win the election, but unless it's a convincing win she still might get the elbow...

[red devil]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> A decent Labour leader would wipe the floor with

> May and a decent Conservative leader would wipe

> the floor with Corbyn......that's where we are

> folks.

True dat, France gets Macron, we get Farron...:)

[Jenny1]

I see red devil. Thanks. Yes - I'm sure that's right. She'll have to deliver a proper majority to be safe.

[Jenny1]

...to add - agree on your interpretation of what motivated TM to call the election, red devil.

[JohnL]

TM: You can only deliver Brexit if you believe in Brexit

Children listen

[red devil]

The Tories might do better if they left Corbybabes (aka Kindly Cuddly Uncle Jezza) alone and instead concentrated on the madness that is Abbott and McDonnell as potential Home Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer...Arrrggghhhh!

*Runs to the nearest estate agent...*

[jaywalker]

Jeremy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> jaywalker... I'm a bit on the fence about railway

> renationalisation... I'm sure many public railways

> work very well indeed. Several private ones do

> too. I wouldn't necessarily advocate privatisation

> in the first place (as you say, natural monopoly),

> but I think there are other ways of addressing the

> problems.

>

> Similar with utilities... I've no ideological

> problem with private ownership but there are

> serious issues with the way the industry has been

> set up and regulated.

>

> And it all seems like it's going to be very, very

> expensive. Especially with utilities, I think John

> McDonnell was suggesting they'd buy the shares

> up...

It is not at all expensive to renationalise: the government can currently borrow (at fixed nominal rates) of less than 2% on ten year gilts and less than 3% on 30 year gilts. It could sell undated gilts (consols) for about 4% where the capital never has to be repaid and the real interest burden falls sharply over time. This in a world with inflation that even optimists think will be at least 2%, and GDP growth might manage 1% (although this may be optimistic in the short term if you ask me). That implies near negative real interest rates to buy natural monopolies that can easily make 5% real return - although if nationalised I'd just leave it at the cost of borrowing and reinvest the rest to improve their services. It is the last point that guarantees better service under nationalisation than in the private sector (where dividends drain to shareholders).

[jaywalker]

In London the latest polls have Labour now at 50% and rising (see the Independent web site http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-latest-jeremy-corbyn-london-labour-prime-minister-theresa-may-conservatives-a7766941.html ). The Evening Standard today http://www.standard.co.uk/ has (significantly) a non-YouGov poll which also shows a collapse in the Tory vote, with middle-aged female voters particularly "deserting" May over dementia tax and abolition of free school meals. They are showing maps of Tory seats likely to fall to Labour.

Saw some labour canvassers yesterday - they are very optimistic. No sign of any Tories even in affluent ED.

By the way, one Portillo-like tragedy of this election may well be that Amber Rudd (the likely Tory first choice successor when May resigns next Friday) may lose her seat. Who can they then turn to? Not Boris or Hammond one thinks. I guess David Davis will take the right wing against someone from the centre (I hope Clarke) and split the party pretty quickly.

[titch juicy]

I have absolutely no faith in any polls right now. There's such a wide range of possible outcomes.

The seat predictions here haven't altered a huge amount. Still an increased Tory majority. How this can be so wildly different to the poll that showed the tories falling 16 seats short is a mystery to me!

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html