8 June

[malumbu]

Not all good news. My colleague stood someonewhere in the home counties. His increase in the party's support matched UKIP's vote last time. Majority relatively unaffected. He'll bc coming back to the office I expect. Respect though.

[Lordship 516]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB6EDE8WsAEm3R_.jpg

[Blah Blah]

It is over for May and Hard Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

"Note to youth ... when you start paying your own phone bills, your college accommodation and living expenses then tell us where society is going wrong"

Note to oldies ... when you start paying your own heating costs, transport costs, living costs and care expenses then tell us where society is going wrong.

Note to sick people ... when you start paying your own healthcare costs and living expenses then tell us where society is going wrong.

...etc etc.

[Alan Medic]

The new arrangement...

[rendelharris]

Henry_17 Wrote:

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> Rendel,

> Unnecessary in terms of which imperitive?

You mean the polls? This latest one because May had a majority, she thought she had the country behind her and Corbyn on the run so greedily - and I think for reasons very much to do with her own ego and self-perception as a strong and beloved leader - decided to try and grab a bigger majority and a guaranteed five year term. The Brexit vote also was unnecessary, Cameron included it in the 2015 manifesto as a sop to his own Eurosceptics.

[Jenny1]

I'm not altogether a fan of Ruth Davidson but this move, I like.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/

So now the Scottish Tories are taking the lead in splitting from the Conservative Party and will fight for continued membership of the Single Market.

I see this as simple common sense and a way of salvaging some kind of viable economic future out of the havoc created by Cameron and Co.

I hope other politicans (of whatever party) will also take this as a sign that now is the time to start think creativly about how you organise yourselves. If they had more gumption we'd have had a new centre party by September of last year.

[Jenny1]

Blast. Seems it's not true!

[JoeLeg]

"Politician denies claim made by newspaper" shocker!

There's no way Ruth Davidson isn't calculating how she can use recent events to advance her career and a Scotland's agenda. Theresa May will be gone by the next Tory conference, they're all positioning themselves.

[Jenny1]

Aboslutely. I'm sure they're all positioning like crazy. I'd just like one of them to actually do something decisive to reshape the political landscape for once.

[Louisa]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Louisa Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > If no second election is called, which would be

> > for the good of the country in these Brexit

> > negotiations to try and sort out a working

> stable

> > majority government, the only other option

> would

> > be for the Tories to have a brutal and bloodied

> > leadership election, and try to build some sort

> of

> > 'electable' situation to take to the people in

> > five years time. Seems highly unlikely. Country

> is

> > in chaos. Again.

> >

> > Louisa.

>

>

> But they need 66% of MP's to agree to an early

> election. Can you really see that many non-Tory

> MP's giving up the chance to kick the Tories? I

> can't.

>

> Unless they can be persuaded 'for the good of the

> country', but then will the Tories want to take

> the chance?

The Tories will have to take the chance. They've spent 20 years trying to detoxify the brand, and now they're forced to cosy up with some pretty traditional, some would say extreme social views from the DUP, to get a workable majority. The left of the Tory party is already feeling uncomfortable. Can she get 66% of all MP's to agree another election? Probably not - for now. But with internal wrangling and some quite public in-fighting in the medium term, her position will become untenable and Labour will hold the cards, and could possibly think let's just go for it and accept the challenge of a second election, which potentially could see them winning a decent majority.

Louisa.

[JoeLeg]

Fair points, but they assume Corbyn will let them - they need the agreement of Labour to get to 66%. Why would Corbyn -

A) Let the Tories 'off the hook', so to speak, when he can spend five years watching them flounder,

B) Risk an election where they get a majority. Labour took Kensington by 20 or so votes, it's not hard to imagine it going back. That said, my wife was today talking to a friend whose mum is a voter in that very constituency, has always voted Tory, but this time voted Labour. She's apparently incensed at the involvement of the DUP, who she loathes, so maybe there's just as much risk for the Conservative party.

At this point, if I was Corbyn, I wouldn't agree to another election. But a week is a long time in politics, and if Brexit negotiations start to go badly or governance is otherwise derailed, it's not impossible that a quiet word comes down from the Palace telling them to settle matters.

[Loz]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Fair points, but they assume Corbyn will let them

> - they need the agreement of Labour to get to 66%.

Not true. There are two way to force an election:

a) get 66% agreement

b) pass a vote of no confidence in the government.

So the Tories could attach a vote of no confidence to a bill in a "pass it or we have an election" scenario.

Which is why I always thought Corbyn was silly in agreeing to an election, as he would have forced the Tories to pass a vote of no confidence in themselves.

[red devil]

When May wanted to call a snap election, Labour couldn't vote against it even though the likelihood at the time was that they would take a pasting. because it would be seen as running scared, even more so now. There's also his age factor (68), would he really want to sit it out for 5 years? (There's no way a coalition with the DUP would limp along that long anyway, more like 5 months). He's doing the right thing, waiting and sitting back whilst the Tories self-implode...

[Louisa]

There's also the argument that Corbyn doesn't really want the top job. Who would? He doesn't want to be dealing with Brexit talks when the majority of his party want us to remain. He's also ultimately a protest movement, he will relish the opportunity to be strengthened in opposition, watching a Tory minority government on the ropes.

There will be a leadership battle before the years end, and a much softer approach to Brexit. Followed by, a medium term election forced through by a vote of no confidence in the Government.

Louisa.

[red devil]

One has just resigned (Nick Timothy)...

[red devil]

And then there were none...

[JoeLeg]

Ah yes, I forgot about the no-confidence route.

I still am not sure the Tories would want to play that level of brinkmanship with the public. But then if we've learnt anything from the past couple of years it's that nothing can be taken for granted.

[Jenny1]

red devil Wrote:

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> One has just resigned (Nick Timothy)...

It was clearly not sensible or productive for May to operate such an isolationist management style; sitting in her bunker with Hill and Timothy. But Timothy is, ideologically, from the 'moderate' wing of the party. I do hope we're not now going to see the rise of the Tory extremists.

[jaywalker]

Certainly not sensible. But there is some comment that she needed people to make her mind up for her. Without them she may simply sink (sink deeper I mean). She has been told by the men in suits that she will do what they tell her - until the time comes for her replacement.

The DUP connection is already absolutely toxic. She risks losing many seats with this connection - the Mirror headline today is all you need to see that. And she is putting peace in Northern Ireland at risk to stay in power. Not good. And also not necessary: she could get supply from the centre ground (in exchange for a softer than soft Brexit) - but of course that would mean the hard right of her own party splitting off.

Meanwhile, the pro-single market/customs-union Tories need a leader fast. Davidson is as good as anyone (there are some 30-somethings on the Tory backbenches who would also do well). Without a GE I don't see any way of negotiating a Brexit deal of any kind (hard or soft) - but perhaps a centrist Tory could scrape something together cross-party (national commission on Brexit-not-meaning-Brexit style).

[Louisa]

Jenny1 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> red devil Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > One has just resigned (Nick Timothy)...

>

>

> It was clearly not sensible or productive for May

> to operate such an isolationist management style;

> sitting in her bunker with Hill and Timothy. But

> Timothy is, ideologically, from the 'moderate'

> wing of the party. I do hope we're not now going

> to see the rise of the Tory extremists

How much more extreme can they possibly get? The hard right is already forcing May to push through a hard Brexit at all costs. That's one reason they've just been punished at the ballot box. If they've learnt anything from this, it's surely that they need the moderate centre to take the discussion back towards a soft Brexit and remaining in the single market.

Louisa.

[Jenny1]

Louisa Wrote:

If

> they've learnt anything from this, it's surely

> that they need the moderate centre to take the

> discussion back towards a soft Brexit and

> remaining in the single market.

>

>

I certainly hope that's what they've learnt. But there are plenty of die-hard Tory MPs (both on social issues and Brexit).

[Jenny1]

jaywalker Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> The DUP connection is already absolutely toxic.

> She risks losing many seats with this connection -

> the Mirror headline today is all you need to see

> that. And she is putting peace in Northern Ireland

> at risk to stay in power. Not good. And also not

> necessary: she could get supply from the centre

> ground (in exchange for a softer than soft Brexit)

> - but of course that would mean the hard right of

> her own party splitting off.

>

>

Well I wish she had the flexibility and vision to seek moderate alliances. But I guess if she had that capacity we would never have had all this 'Brexit means Brexit' silliness. She does seem to be in hock to the 'swivel-eyed loons' (as Major famously called them).

[Jenny1]

Sorry - got that wrong. That was attributed to Cameron of course (or one of his crew). The Major quote I shall have to seek out...something along the lines of 'romantics, lunatics and bastards'.

[red devil]

Indeed jenny, there's a cabal of Tories i.e. Fox, Gove who are hell bent on a Hard Brexit/No Deal, at any cost. They have and continue to pull May's strings, she was the convenient acceptable face of their version of Brexit, a Remainer following the so called 'will of the people'. Right now they'll be planning who can be their next decoy...